Temporary storage of carbon in the biosphere does have value for climate change mitigation: a response to the paper by Miko Kirschbaum

Kirschbaum (Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 11:1151–1164, 2006) explores the climatic impact over time of temporarily sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. He concludes that temporary storage of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere “achieves effectively no climate-change mitigation”. His strongly worded statement begs for a response. This paper argues that Kirschbaum’s conclusion is an artifact of the specific perspective of his analysis and his choice of a definition for climate-change impact. Even temporary sinks put us on a lower path for climate change, a path that will not otherwise be accessible. For carbon sinks in the terrestrial biosphere, we argue that sooner is better and longer is better, but even known temporary sinks have value.

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs. Article impact statement: Species status assessments can be improved by an ecosystem-based approach that groups imperiled species by shared habitats and threats.     

Modelling Replicated Weed Growth Data using Spatially-varying Growth Curves

Weed growth in agricultural fields constitutes a major deterrent to the growth of crops, often resulting in low productivity and huge losses for the farmers. Therefore, proper understanding of patterns in weed growth is vital to agricultural research. Recent advances in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) now allow geocoding of agricultural data, which enable more sophisticated spatial analysis. Our current application concerns the development of statistical models for conducting spatial analysis of growth patterns in weeds. Our data comes from an experiment conducted in Waseca, Minnesota, that recorded growth of the weed Setariaspp. We capture the spatial variation in Setaria spp. growth using spatially-varying growth curves. An added challenge is that these designs are spatially replicated, with each plot being a lattice of sub-plots. Therefore, spatial variation may exist at different resolutions – a macro level variation between the plots and micro level variation between the sub-plots nested within each plot. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework for this setting. Flexible classes of models result which are fitted using simulation-based methods.     

A comparison of five high-resolution spatially-explicit,fossil-fuel,carbon dioxide emission inventories for the United States

The quantification of fossil-fuel-related emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is necessary in order to accurately represent carbon cycle fluxes and to understand and project the details of the global carbon cycle. In addition, the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of carbon dioxide emissions is necessary for the success of international agreements to reduce emissions. However, existing fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO₂) emissions inventories vary in terms of the data and methods used to estimate and distribute FFCO₂. This paper compares how the approaches used to create spatially explicit FFCO₂ emissions inventories affect the spatial distribution of emissions estimates and the magnitude of emissions estimates in specific locales. Five spatially explicit FFCO₂ emission inventories were compared: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS), Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC), and Vulcan. The effects of using specific data and approaches in the creation of spatially explicit FFCO₂ emissions inventories, and the effect of resolution on data representation are analyzed using graphical, numerical, and cartographic approaches. We examined the effect of using top-down versus bottom-up approaches, nightlights versus population proxies, and the inclusion of large point sources. The results indicate that the approach used to distribute emissions in space creates distinct patterns in the distribution of emissions estimates and hence in the estimates of emissions in specific locations. The different datasets serve different purposes but collectively show the key role of large point sources and urban centers and the strong relationship between scale and uncertainty.     

Carbon management and biodiversity

International efforts to mitigate human-caused changes in the Earth's climate are considering a system of incentives (debits and credits) that would encourage specific changes in land use that can help to reduce the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The two primary land-based activities that would help to minimize atmospheric carbon dioxide are carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere and the efficient substitution of biomass fuels and bio-based products for fossil fuels and energy-intensive products. These two activities have very different land requirements and different implications for the preservation of biodiversity and the maintenance of other ecosystem services. Carbon sequestration in living forests can be pursued on lands with low productivity, i.e. on lands that are least suitable for agriculture or intensive forestry, and are compatible with the preservation of biodiversity over large areas. In contrast, intensive harvest-and-use systems for biomass fuels and products generally need more productive land to be economically viable. Intensive harvest-and-use systems may compete with agriculture or they may shift intensive land uses onto the less productive lands that currently harbor most of the Earth's biodiversity. Win-win solutions for carbon dioxide control and biodiversity are possible, but careful evaluation and planning are needed to avoid practices that reduce biodiversity with little net decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Planning is more complex on a politically subdivided Earth where issues of local interest, national sovereignty, and equity come into play.     

137Cs and excess 210Pb deposition patterns in estuarine and marine sediment in the central region of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, north-eastern Australia

This paper focuses on the distribution of 137Cs and 210Pb(xs) in 51 estuarine and marine sediment cores collected between the Upstart Bay and Rockingham Bay in the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, north-eastern Australia. Historical records of 210Pb(xs) and 137Cs atmospheric deposition and present day terrestrial inventories in north-eastern Australia are presented. 210Pb(xs) and 137Cs fluxes measured on suspended sediments in the Burdekin River are considered to be a source of recent inputs of these nuclides to the nearshore region of this part of the Great Barrier Reef. Direct correlations between sediment nuclide inventories, maximum detectable depths, and sediment mass accumulation rates (MARs), calculated using both 137Cs and 210Pb(xs), are explored. In relation to inventories of 210Pb(xs), 60% of atmospheric fallout 137Cs appears to be missing from the sediments. The reasons for these differences in two tracers, primarily of atmospheric origin, are discussed in terms of the geochemical properties of these two nuclides. Evidence is presented to support the hypothesis that the 137Cs distribution in these cores can be a useful independent tracer which provides confirmation of MARs calculated from the decay of 210Pb(xs).     

A distributed approach to accounting for carbon in wood products

With an evolving political environment of commitments to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, and of markets to trade in emissions permits, there is growing scientific, political, and economic need to accurately evaluate carbon (C) stocks and flows—especially those related to human activities. One component of the global carbon cycle that has been contentious is the stock of carbon that is physically held in harvested wood products. The carbon stored in wood products has been sometimes overlooked, but the amount of carbon contained in wood products is not trivial, it is increasing with time, and it is significant to some Parties. This paper is concerned with accurate treatment of harvested wood products in inventories of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The methodologies outlined demonstrate a flexible way to expand current methods beyond the assumption of a simple, first-order decay to include the use of more accurate and detailed data while retaining the simplicity of simple formulas. The paper demonstrates that a more accurate representation of decay time can have significant economic implications in a system where emissions are taxed or emissions permits are traded. The method can be easily applied using only data on annual production of wood products and two parameters to characterize their expected lifetime. These methods are not specific to wood products but can be applied to long-lived, carbon-containing products from sources other than wood, e.g. long-lived petrochemical products. A single unifying approach that is both simple and flexible has the potential to be both more accurate in its results, more efficient in its implementation, and economically important to some Parties.     

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M_w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.     

VARIABILITY IN MEASURES OF MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY STRUCTURE BY STREAM REACH AND STREAM CLASS1

ABSTRACT: Macroinvertebrate community data collected from streams in Wyoming were assessed at various scales: within one stream reach, between stream reaches within one stream, between streams, and between stream classes. Fourteen indices including number of individuals/m², biomass/m², number of taxa, Shannon's diversity index, and functional feeding group ratios were used to compare macroinvertebrates by stream reach and stream class. Statistical analysis indicated that for five of the 14 indices, significant variability occurred between macroinvertebrate communities within one reach. For two of the remaining nine indices there was significant variability between communities from several reaches within the same stream. For seven of the nine indices, there was significant variability among macroinvertebrate communities from streams of the same class. Variability among the macroinvertebrate communities from the three stream classes was significantly different for seven of the nine indices. ANOVA results suggest that macroinvertebrate communities from different samples within one reach and between reaches within one stream were more comparable than those from different streams and different stream classes.