CLIMATE SCIENCE AND DROUGHT PLANNING: THE ARIZONA EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.     

Assessing Societal Impacts When Planning Restoration of Large Alluvial Rivers: A Case Study of the Sacramento River Project, California

Studies have shown that ecological restoration projects are more likely to gain public support if they simultaneously increase important human services that natural resources provide to people. River restoration projects have the potential to influence many of the societal functions (e.g., flood control, water quality) that rivers provide, yet most projects fail to consider this in a comprehensive manner. Most river restoration projects also fail to take into account opportunities for revitalization of large-scale river processes, focusing instead on opportunities presented at individual parcels. In an effort to avoid these pitfalls while planning restoration of the Sacramento River, we conducted a set of coordinated studies to evaluate societal impacts of alternative restoration actions over a large geographic area. Our studies were designed to identify restoration actions that offer benefits to both society and the ecosystem and to meet the information needs of agency planning teams focusing on the area. We worked with local partners and public stakeholders to design and implement studies that assessed the effects of alternative restoration actions on flooding and erosion patterns, socioeconomics, cultural resources, and public access and recreation. We found that by explicitly and scientifically melding societal and ecosystem perspectives, it was possible to identify restoration actions that simultaneously improve both ecosystem health and the services (e.g., flood protection and recreation) that the Sacramento River and its floodplain provide to people. Further, we found that by directly engaging with local stakeholders to formulate, implement, and interpret the studies, we were able to develop a high level of trust that ultimately translated into widespread support for the project.     

Structural characterization and thermal stabilities of the isomers of the brominated flame retardant 1,2,5,6-tetrabromocyclooctane (TBCO)

1,2,5,6-Tetrabromocyclooctane (TBCO) is a commercial brominated flame retardant that is employed mainly as an additive in textiles, paints and plastics. Very little is known about its presence or behavior in the environment or its analysis. TBCO can exist as two diastereomers, the stereochemistries of which have not been previously reported. We have named the first eluting isomer, under HPLC conditions, as alpha-TBCO (α-TBCO) and the later eluting isomer as beta-TBCO (β-TBCO) when using an Acquity UPLC BEH C₁₈ column with methanol/acetonitrile/water as the mobile phase. The structural elucidation of these two isomers was accomplished by ¹H NMR spectroscopy, GC/MS, LC/MS and X-ray structure determinations. α-TBCO is (1R,2R,5S,6S)-1,2,5,6-tetrabromocyclooctane and β-TBCO is rac-(1R,2R,5R,6R)-1,2,5,6-tetrabromocyclooctane. As with some other brominated cycloaliphatic compounds, TBCO is thermally labile and the isomers easily interconvert. A thermal equilibrium mixture of α- and β-TBCO consists of approximately 15% and 85% of these isomers, respectively. Separation of the two diastereomers, with minimal thermal interconversion between them, is achievable by careful selection of GC-capillary column length and injector temperature. LC/MS analyses of TBCO also presents an analytical challenge due to poor resolution of the isomers on chromatographic stationary phases, and weak intensity of molecular ions (or major fragment ions) when using LC-ESI/MS. Only bromide ions were seen in the mass spectra. APCI and APPI also failed to produce the molecular ion with sufficient intensity for identification.     

Synthesis of the two minor isomers, delta- and epsilon-1,2,5,6,9,10-hexabromocyclododecane, present in commercial hexabromocyclododecane

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is prepared commercially by bromination of cis,trans,trans-cyclododecatriene (ctt-CDT) and widely used as a flame retardant, particularly in polystyrene foams. Commercial HBCD consists largely of three diastereomers, alpha-, beta-, and gamma-HBCD, the structures of which have been known for many years. Recently, the presence in the mixture of small amounts of two minor diastereomers, delta- and epsilon-HBCD, has been reported. Bearing in mind the manner in which commercial HBCD is generated, it was anticipated that these components are probably formed by bromination of trans,trans,trans-cyclododecatriene (ttt-CDT), a common contaminant in commercial ctt-CDT. Indeed, when a sample of ttt-CDT was brominated it gave two products, the NMR spectra and LC/MS and GC/MS behaviour of which confirmed that they are identical to the minor components, delta- and epsilon-HBCD, present in commercial HBCD.     

Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants emitted to and removed from the atmosphere ranks high on international...     

Carbon Management Response Curves: Estimates of Temporal Soil Carbon Dynamics

Measurement of the change in soil carbon that accompanies a change in land use (e.g., forest to agriculture) or management (e.g., conventional tillage to no-till) can be complex and expensive, may require reference plots, and is subject to the variability of statistical sampling and short-term variability in weather. In this paper, we develop Carbon Management Response (CMR) curves that could be used as an alternative to in situ measurements. The CMR curves developed here are based on quantitative reviews of existing global analyses and field observations of changes in soil carbon. The curves show mean annual rates of soil carbon change, estimated time to maximum rates of change, and estimated time to a new soil carbon steady state following the initial change in management. We illustrate how CMR curves could be used in a carbon accounting framework while effectively addressing a number of potential policy issues commonly associated with carbon accounting. We find that CMR curves provide a transparent means to account for changes in soil carbon accumulation and loss rates over time, and also provide empirical relationships that might be used in the development or validation of ecological or Earth systems models.     

The Kyoto Protocol: provisions and unresolved issues relevant to land-use change and forestry

This paper describes the relevant text of the Kyoto Protocol and its implications for land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities and addresses some of the technical issues that merit further consideration and clarification before the treaty comes into force. Although the phrasing of the Protocol is sometimes ambiguous and the opportunities limited, the Protocol does provide for some selected forest-related activities to be used to meet national commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. To implement the forest-related portions of the Protocol, most importantly: (1) a clear definition for the word ‘reforestation' is required, (2) contradictory wording in Article 3.3 needs to be clarified to establish how credits are to be measured, (3) further thought should be given to the sentence in Article 3.7 which provides that countries with a net carbon sink in LUCF in 1990 cannot include emissions from land-use change in their 1990 baseline, whereas countries with a net carbon source in LUCF can include those emissions in their 1990 baseline, (4) the rules and baseline issues for joint implementation and the clean development mechanism need to be clarified and (5) inclusion of additional forest management activities needs to be considered.     

Physiological and developmental effects of O3 on cottonwood growth in urban and rural sites.

Previously we found that cloned cottonwood saplings (Populus deltoides) grew twice as large in New York, New York, USA, compared to surrounding rural environments and that soils, temperature, CO2, nutrient deposition, and microclimatic variables could not account for the greater urban plant biomass. Correlations between final season biomass and cumulative O3 exposures, combined with twofold growth reductions in an open-top chamber experiment provided strong evidence that higher cumulative O3 exposures in rural sites reduced growth in the country. Here, we assess the field gas exchange, growth and development, and allocation responses underlying the observed growth differences and compare them with isolated O3 responses documented in the open-top chamber experiment. Cottonwoods showed no visible foliar injury, reduced photosynthesis of recently expanded foliage, early leaf senescence, protective reduction in stomatal conductance, or compensatory allocation to shoot relative to root biomass for either the chamber or field experiment. Instead, O3-impacted chamber plants had significantly higher conductance and reduced photosynthesis of older foliage that led to reduced leaf area production and a twofold biomass reduction in the absence of visible injury. Rural-grown field plants showed the same pattern of significantly higher conductance in the absence of concomitant increases in photosynthesis that was indicative of a loss of stomatal control. Incremental changes in foliar production were also significantly inversely related to fluctuations in ambient O3 exposures. The similarity in biomass, gas exchange, phenological, and allocation responses between chamber and field experiments indicate that mechanisms accounting for reduced growth at rural sites were consistent with those in the open-top chamber O3 experiment. This study shows the limitation of visible symptoms as a sole diagnostic factor for documenting detrimental O3 impacts and points toward a new approach to show O3 impacts when visible injury is not present. Namely, O3-impacted vegetation showed an unusual inverse relationship of increased conductance with lower photosynthesis of older foliage that was indicative of a loss of stomatal control. This increased stomatal conductance of O3-impacted vegetation accentuates pollutant flux into affected foliage and has important implications for system water balance during warm, dry portions of the growing season when O3 concentrations are highest.