Guatemala strives for environmental and economic sustainability in the Rio Dulce region

Conditions in Guatemala's Rio Dulce National Park (RDNP) present an immediate decision-making challenge concerning the reversal of current destructive environmental trends, and in establishing policies for restoration, protection, and sustainable use. This article summarises results of environmental assessment activities undertaken at three levels: an environmental impact assessment (EIA) of a proposed industrial forestry activity, an environmental assessment of management options for the Rio Dulce National Park, and water management planning for the Rio Dulce/Lago Izabal watershed. A key result of the EIA was to prohibit construction of a barge terminal within the boundaries of the park because it could set a precedent for future development. Management options for the park focused on establishing land-use controls, dealing with river transport more effectively, and identifying funding mechanisms to implement solutions. At the watershed scale, a strategic approach was recommended to identify priority issues for initiating change toward sustainability in the region.     

RIVERWARE: A GENERALIZED TOOL FOR COMPLEX RESERVOIR SYSTEM MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Water management agencies seek the next generation of modeling tools for planning and operating river basins. Previous site‐specific models such as U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (USBR) Colorado River Simulation System and Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Daily Scheduling Model have become obsolete; however, new models are difficult and expensive to develop and maintain. Previous generalized river basin modeling tools are limited in their ability to represent diverse physical system and operating policy details for a wide range of applications. RiverWare(tm), a new generalized river basin modeling tool, provides a construction kit for developing and running detailed, site‐specific models without the need to develop or maintain the supporting software within the water management agency. It includes an extensible library of modeling algorithms, several solvers, and a rich “language” for the expression of operating policy. Its point‐and‐click graphical interface facilitates model construction and execution, and communication of policies, assumptions and results to others. Applications developed and used by the TVA and the USBR demonstrate that a wide range of operational and planning problems on widely varying basins can be solved using this tool.     

Linking community and national park development: A case from the Dominican Republic

National parks have complex relationships with local communities that impact both conservation success and community well-being. Integrated conservation and development projects have been a key approach to managing these relationships, although their effectiveness has been increasingly questioned. Park-people relationships of the Armando Bermudez National Park in the Dominican Republic were studied, focusing on forests, aquatic resources, community well-being and development, and ecotourism. The park, established in 1956, is well respected by the community, based on its long history and its role in protecting water resources that are critical to the community. However, management of riparian vegetation and local fisheries present challenges in terms of finding a balance between conservation and development. Hiking and trekking opportunities attract both national and international tourists to the park, and community members benefit from employment as tour guides and providing mule rentals. At the same time, tourism activities also present continuing challenges related to: (1) the distribution of tourism benefits between local people and outsiders, and within the local community, (2) maintaining the local economic benefits of tourism while protecting park resources, and (3) developing park- or conservation-related economic opportunities to complement tourism. The results highlight the need to develop site-specific strategies to manage park-people relationships through interdisciplinary analysis.     

Application of classification-tree methods to identify nitrate sources in ground water

A study was conducted to determine if nitrate sources in ground water (fertilizer on crops, fertilizer on golf courses, irrigation spray from hog (Sus scrofa) wastes, and leachate from poultry litter and septic systems) could be classified with 80% or greater success. Two statistical classification-tree models were devised from 48 water samples containing nitrate from five source categories. Model 1 was constructed by evaluating 32 variables and selecting four primary predictor variables (delta 15N, nitrate to ammonia ratio, sodium to potassium ratio, and zinc) to identify nitrate sources. A delta 15N value of nitrate plus potassium > 18.2 indicated animal sources; a value < 18.2 indicated inorganic or soil organic N. A nitrate to ammonia ratio > 575 indicated inorganic fertilizer on agricultural crops; a ratio < 575 indicated nitrate from golf courses. A sodium to potassium ratio > 3.2 indicated septic-system wastes; a ratio < 3.2 indicated spray or poultry wastes. A value for zinc > 2.8 indicated spray wastes from hog lagoons; a value < 2.8 indicated poultry wastes. Model 2 was devised by using all variables except delta 15N. This model also included four variables (sodium plus potassium, nitrate to ammonia ratio, calcium to magnesium ratio, and sodium to potassium ratio) to distinguish categories. Both models were able to distinguish all five source categories with better than 80% overall success and with 71 to 100% success in individual categories using the learning samples. Seventeen water samples that were not used in model development were tested using Model 2 for three categories, and all were correctly classified. Classification-tree models show great potential in identifying sources of contamination and variables important in the source-identification process.     

Enzymatic hydrolysis of organic phosphorus in swine manure and soil

Organic phosphorus (Po) exists in many chemical forms that differ in their susceptibility to hydrolysis and, therefore, bioavailability to plants and microorganisms. Identification and quantification of these forms may significantly contribute to effective agricultural P management. Phosphatases catalyze reactions that release orthophosphate (Pi) from Po compounds. Alkaline phosphatase in tris-HCl buffer (pH 9.0), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) phytase in potassium acetate buffer (pH 5.0), and nuclease P1 in potassium acetate buffer (pH 5.0) can be used to classify and quantify Po in animal manure. Background error associated with different pH and buffer systems is observed. In this study, we improved the enzymatic hydrolysis approach and tested its applicability for investigating Po in soils, recognizing that soil and manure differ in numerous physicochemical properties. We applied (i) acid phosphatase from potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), (ii) acid phosphatases from both potato and wheat germ, and (iii) both enzymes plus nuclease P1 to identify and quantify simple labile monoester P, phytate (myo-inositol hexakis phosphate)-like P, and DNA-like P, respectively, in a single pH/buffer system (100 mM sodium acetate, pH 5.0). This hydrolysis procedure released Po in sequentially extracted H2O, NaHCO3, and NaOH fractions of swine (Sus scrofa) manure, and of three sandy loam soils. Further refinement of the approach may provide a universal tool for evaluating hydrolyzable Po from a wide range of sources.     

Useful indicators of urban sustainability: Some methodological issues

This paper considers methodological questions concerning indicators of sustainability, which have arisen in the course of an EPSRC-supported project investigating a systems approach to assessing the sustainability of cities. The project aimed: (a) to develop a methodology, the Reference Sustainability System (RSS), for representing the energy, resource and material flows, on which the environmental sustainability of cities depends; (b) to show how this methodology could contribute to a more systematic assessment of the potential of technological and resource management strategies to enhance urban sustainability. Systems models of the material or resource flows caused by the household demand for paper, energy, water and bottled water have been constructed. The project has highlighted the complexity of assessing the contributions of specific technologies and strategies to enhanced sustainability. Particular issues raised include the relative merits and problems of using externality valuation methods compared to physical indicators, the difficulties of aggregating environmental impacts, the question of where system boundaries should be drawn in a life cycle analysis, and the need to consider both distant and local impacts which arise from the end-use demands of urban populations. The paper explores these issues, through the use of modelling results from the case studies. Particular emphasis is placed on the communication of research results to policy makers, interested organisations and the public, drawing on recent experience with the dissemination of results from the project's first case study relating to waste-paper management options.     

Management of Sedimentation in Tropical Watersheds

/ The sedimentation of reservoirs is a serious problem throughout the tropics, yet most attempts to control sedimentation in large river basins have not been very successful. Reliable information on erosion rates and sources of sediments has been lacking. In regions where geologically unstable terrain combines with high rainfall, natural erosion rates might be so high that the effects of human activity are limited. Estimates of natural erosion in these situations often have been poor because of the episodic nature of most erosion during large storms and because mass-wasting may supply much of the sediment. The predominance of mass-wasting in some watersheds can result in an unexpectedly high ratio of bedload to suspended load, shifting sedimentation to "live" rather than "dead" storage within reservoirs. Furthermore, the inappropriate use of the Universal Soil Loss Equation to assess the effectiveness of erosion control measures has led to inaccurate estimates of the sediment reduction benefits that could accrue to watershed treatment efforts. Although reducing erosion from cultivated areas is desirable for other reasons, efforts aimed at reducing reservoir sedimentation by controlling agricultural sources of erosion may have limited benefits if the principal sources are of natural origin or are associated with construction of the dams and reservoirs and with rural roads and trails. Finally, the most appropriate locations for watershed rehabilitation depend on the magnitude of temporary storage of colluvium and alluvium within the river basin: Where storage volume is large and residence time of sediment very long, reducing agricultural erosion may have limited impacts on sedimentation within the expected life of a reservoir. Systematic development and analysis of sediment budgets for representative watersheds is needed to address these limitations and thereby improve both the planning of river basin development schemes and the allocation of resources towards reducing sedimentation. When sedimentation of reservoirs is the key issue, sediment budgets must focus especially on channel transport rates and sediment delivery from hillsides. Sediment budgets are especially critical for tropical areas where project funds and technical help are limited. Once sediment budgets are available, watershed managers will be able to direct erosion control programs towards locations where they will be most effective. KEY WORDS: Tropical watersheds; Sedimentation; Reservoirs; Erosion control     

Specific conductance and ionic characteristics of farm canals in the everglades agricultural area

Specific conductance in farm canals of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) in south Florida is an important water quality parameter that was categorized as a parameter of concern according to an observed frequency of >5% excursions over the Class III water quality criterion and needed to be addressed as a part of the Everglades Regulatory Program. This study was conducted to evaluate specific conductance in farm canals of the EAA. Specific conductance was monitored at 10 representative farms (a total of 12 pump stations) in the EAA using multi-parameter water quality data loggers, for periods ranging from 24 to 83 mo. Cation and anion concentrations were also determined. Nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analyses and Sen's slope analysis of specific conductance were conducted to determine specific conductance trends. Mean specific conductance ranged from 0.74 to 1.68 dS m(-1) and only 2 of the 10 farms were above the State Class III water quality criterion of 1.275 dS m(-1). Statistically significant downward trends were observed at 3 of the 10 farms. Determination of ion compositions in grab samples at 8 of the 10 farms indicated that the major ions contributing to the increase in specific conductance in the EAA were Cl-, HCO3-, and Na+. Mean Na/Cl ratios in most of the EAA canals ranged from 0.57 to 0.78, whereas those of SO4/Cl ranged from 0.46 to 0.98. Investigation of historical data and literature indicates that elevated specific conductance in parts of the EAA is a natural phenomenon due to entrapment of connate seawater in the Everglades formation. Sulfur contributes minor increases in specific conductance in the EAA with probable sources from organic soil mineralization, ground water, Lake Okeechobee, and S fertilizers.     

Stream Communities Along a Catchment Land-Use Gradient: Subsidy-Stress Responses to Pastoral Development

When native grassland catchments are converted to pasture, the main effects on stream physicochemistry are usually related to increased nutrient concentrations and fine-sediment input. We predicted that increasing nutrient concentrations would produce a subsidy-stress response (where several ecological metrics first increase and then decrease at higher concentrations) and that increasing sediment cover of the streambed would produce a linear decline in stream health. We predicted that the net effect of agricultural development, estimated as percentage pastoral land cover, would have a nonlinear subsidy-stress or threshold pattern. In our suite of 21 New Zealand streams, epilithic algal biomass and invertebrate density and biomass were higher in catchments with a higher proportion of pastoral land cover, responding mainly to increased nutrient concentration. Invertebrate species richness had a linear, negative relationship with fine-sediment cover but was unrelated to nutrients or pastoral land cover. In accord with our predictions, several invertebrate stream health metrics (Ephemeroptera–Plecoptera–Trichoptera density and richness, New Zealand Macroinvertebrate Community Index, and percent abundance of noninsect taxa) had nonlinear relationships with pastoral land cover and nutrients. Most invertebrate health metrics usually had linear negative relationships with fine-sediment cover. In this region, stream health, as indicated by macroinvertebrates, primarily followed a subsidy-stress pattern with increasing pastoral development; management of these streams should focus on limiting development beyond the point where negative effects are seen.     

Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse

Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. The SAI double catastrophe scenario also strengthens arguments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and against SAI, as well as for building communities that could be self-sufficient during global catastrophes. Finally, the paper demonstrates the value of integrative, systems-based global catastrophic risk analysis.