Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in freshwater mussels and fish from Flanders, Belgium

The levels and distribution of PBDEs in zebra mussels and several freshwater fish species (eel, carp and gibel carp) were investigated for different sites in Flanders, Belgium. In parallel, other organohalogenated contaminants, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), p,p[prime or minute]-DDE and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were also measured and their relationship with PBDEs was investigated. At most sites, individual PBDE congeners were present at detectable levels in mussel tissue, with the mean [summation operator]PBDE concentration ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 ng g(-1) wet weight (ww). The PCB concentrations in mussels ranged from 6.2 to 102 ng g(-1) ww. HCB and p,p[prime or minute]-DDE could be measured in mussels from most sites, mean values ranging from below the limit of quantification (LOQ) to 0.58 ng g(-1) ww and from 0.66 to 6.5 ng g(-1) ww, respectively. Except for one site (Blokkersdijk, Antwerp) where PBDEs were below the LOQ in carp muscle, all fish samples from other sites contained detectable PBDE levels, with the highest concentrations (14 +/- 14 ng g(-1) ww) being measured in eel liver from Watersportbaan (Ghent). The sampled sites covered a broad concentration range of organohalogenated pollutants with the highest values being consistently measured in eel liver. With few exceptions, all correlations between PBDEs and organochlorine pollutants for each species were low (r < 0.50) and most were statistically not significant (p > 0.05). This suggests that the exposure to contaminants arises from local sources possessing different signatures of PBDEs and organochlorine pollutants.     

Transport of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and ozone to the Alpine Global Atmosphere Watch stations Jungfraujoch (Switzerland), Zugspitze and Hohenpeissenberg (Germany), Sonnblick (Austria) and Mt. Krvavec (Slovenia)

The Alpine stations Zugspitze, Hohenpeissenberg, Sonnblick, Jungfraujoch and Mt. Krvavec contribute to the Global Atmosphere Watch Programme (GAW) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The aim of GAW is the surveillance of the large-scale chemical composition of the atmosphere. Thus, the detection of air pollutant transport from regional sources is of particular interest. In this paper, the origin of NO_x (measured with a photo-converter), CO and O₃ at the four Alpine GAW stations is studied by trajectory residence time statistics. Although these methods originated during the early 1980s, no comprehensive study of different atmospheric trace gases measured simultaneously at several background observatories in the Alps was conducted up to present.The main NO_x source regions detected by the trajectory statistics are the northwest of Europe and the region covering East Germany, Czech Republic and southeast Poland, whereas the main CO source areas are the central, north eastern and eastern parts of Europe with some gradient from low to high latitudes. Subsiding air masses from west and southwest are relatively poor in NO_x and CO.The statistics for ozone show strong seasonal effects. Near ground air masses are poor in ozone in winter but rich in ozone in summer. The main source for high ozone concentration in winter is air masses that subside from higher elevations, often enhanced by foehn effects at Hohenpeissenberg. During summer, the Mediterranean constitutes an important additional source for high ozone concentrations.Especially during winter, large differences between Hohenpeissenberg and the higher elevated stations are found. Hohenpeissenberg is frequently within the inversion, whereas the higher elevated stations are above the inversion.Jungfraujoch is the only station where the statistics detect an influence of air rich in CO and NO_x from the Po Basin.     

Dynamics of trace metals in organisms and ecosystems: prediction of metal bioconcentration in different organisms and estimation of exposure risks

Metal ions interact with biological materials and their decomposition products by ligation (coordination complex-formation with certain moieties containing O, N, S, etc.). The extent of this interaction depends on the identities of both ligand and metal ion and can be described by some equation derived from perturbation theory. Uptake of metal ions - including highly toxic ones - from soils is controlled by a competition between root exudate components and soil organic matter (SOM) for the ions. SOM consists of a variety of potential ligands which evolve during humification towards more efficient binding (retention) of metals such as Cu, Ni, Cr but also of toxicants like U, Cd. The actual way of interaction can be inferred from stoichiometry of the involved compounds and the C/N ratio in the soil, providing predictions as to which metals will be most efficiently shuttled into green plants or fungi, respectively. The latter, selective process is crucial for closing nutrient cycles and sensitively depends on C/N ratio and the extent of "forcing" by onfalling leaf or needle litter. Therefore, analytical data on the soil can be used to predict possible risks of exposition to toxic metals also for human consumption of plant parts.     

Exposure of ruminants to persistent organic pollutants and potential of decontamination

Human activities are emitting persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the environment. These compounds have raised concerns about the risk of transfer through the food chain via animal products. They are characterized by a strong persistence in environmental matrices and a lipophilicity which may lead to their accumulation in fat tissues. In EU Regulations (no. 1881/2006, 1259/2011), maximum acceptable levels for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), and dioxin-like or nondioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in food of animal origin have been set. Transfer rates from contaminated fodder to milk have been established: for PCBs, the rate of transfer varies from 5 to 90 % and for PCDD/Fs from 1 to 40 %. The differential transfer of the compounds towards milk is related to the hydrophobicity of the pollutants and to their metabolic susceptibility. According to numerous authors, soil is the major reservoir for POPs, and its involuntary ingestion by farm animals reared outdoors may be the main cause of animal product contamination (meat, milk, or eggs). Recent studies seem to indicate that soil is a real risk matrix in terms of transfer of pollutants to the food chain. A POP crisis management is extremely difficult, since it impacts many farmers located in the contaminated area. The question arising is to know if livestock contaminated by POPs may be decontaminated and further used for their initial purpose. Recent data demonstrate that the decontamination process appear feasible and depends on initial level of contamination or the physiological status of the animals.     

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Vector navigation in desert ants, Cataglyphis fortis: celestial compass cues are essential for the proper use of distance information

Foraging desert ants navigate primarily by path integration. They continually update homing direction and distance by employing a celestial compass and an odometer. Here we address the question of whether information about travel distance is correctly used in the absence of directional information. By using linear channels that were partly covered to exclude celestial compass cues, we were able to test the distance component of the path-integration process while suppressing the directional information. Our results suggest that the path integrator cannot process the distance information accumulated by the odometer while ants are deprived of celestial compass information. Hence, during path integration directional cues are a prerequisite for the proper use of travel-distance information by ants.     

(Persistent) Organic pollutants in Germany: results from a pilot study within the 2015 moss survey

Background

Since 1990, every 5 years, moss sampling is conducted within the European moss monitoring programme to assess the atmospheric deposition of airborne pollutants. Besides many other countries, Germany takes regularly part at these evaluations. Within the European moss monitoring 2015, more than 400 moss samples across Germany were taken according to a harmonized methodology for the assessment heavy metal and nitrogen input. In a pilot programme, eight of these sites were chosen for additional investigations on a broad range of organic contaminants to evaluate their accumulation in moss and thereby their presence in atmospheric deposition in Germany. Target compound classes comprised polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and –furans (PCDD/F), dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB, ndl-PCB), polyfluorinated alkyl substances, classical flame retardants as well as emerging chlorinated and brominated flame retardants. In total, 120 target compounds were analysed. For some analytes, comparisons of accumulation in moss and tree leave samples were possible.

Results

Except for certain flame retardants, PFAS, and ndl-PCB, substances of all other compound classes could be quantified in moss samples of all sites. Concentrations were highest for PAH (40–268 ng g^?1) followed by emerging flame retardants (0.5–7.7 ng g^?1), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE; 0.3–3.7 ng g^?1), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD; 0.3–1.2 ng g^?1), dl-PCB (0.04–0.4 ng g^?1) and PCDD/F (0.008–0.06 ng g^?1).

Conclusions

Results show the widespread atmospheric distribution and deposition of organic contaminants across Germany as well as the suitability of moss as bioaccumulation monitor for most of these compound classes. Compared to nearby tree leaf samples, accumulation potential of moss appeared to be higher for pollutants of high octanol–air partition coefficient (K_OA) and octanol–water partition coefficient (K_OW).