Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Long-term environmental monitoring for assessment of change: measurement inconsistencies over time and potential solutions

The importance of long-term environmental monitoring and research for detecting and understanding changes in ecosystems and human impacts on natural systems is widely acknowledged. Over the last decades, a number of critical components for successful long-term monitoring have been identified. One basic component is quality assurance/quality control protocols to ensure consistency and comparability of data. In Norway, the authorities require environmental monitoring of the impacts of the offshore petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf, and in 1996, a large-scale regional environmental monitoring program was established. As a case study, we used a sub-set of data from this monitoring to explore concepts regarding best practices for long-term environmental monitoring. Specifically, we examined data from physical and chemical sediment samples and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages from 11 stations from six sampling occasions during the period 1996–2011. Despite the established quality assessment and quality control protocols for this monitoring program, we identified several data challenges, such as missing values and outliers, discrepancies in variable and station names, changes in procedures without calibration, and different taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, we show that the use of different laboratories over time makes it difficult to draw conclusions with regard to some of the observed changes. We offer recommendations to facilitate comparison of data over time. We also present a new procedure to handle different taxonomic resolution, so valuable historical data is not discarded. These topics have a broader relevance and application than for our case study.     

A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services

Interest in ecosystem services has grown tremendously among a wide range of sectors, including government agencies, NGO’s and the business community. Ecosystem services entailing freshwater (e.g. flood control, the provision of hydropower, and water supply), as well as carbon storage and sequestration, have received the greatest attention in both scientific and on-the-ground applications. Given the newness of the field and the variety of tools for predicting water-based services, it is difficult to know which tools to use for different questions. There are two types of freshwater-related tools – traditional hydrologic tools and newer ecosystem services tools. Here we review two of the most prominent tools of each type and their possible applications. In particular, we compare the data requirements, ease of use, questions addressed, and interpretability of results among the models. We discuss the strengths, challenges and most appropriate applications of the different models. Traditional hydrological tools provide more detail whereas ecosystem services tools tend to be more accessible to non-experts and can provide a good general picture of these ecosystem services. We also suggest gaps in the modeling toolbox that would provide the greatest advances by improving existing tools.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sewage,mussels and tap water

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been determined in sewage discharge, mussels and tap water by glass capillary gas chromatography. Up to 30 PAH compounds have been identified. The concentration levels are low, respectively 0.8 – 7.7μg/1, 0.5–1.1 μg/g and 0.002 – 0.2μg/1 of sum PAH have been determined in sewage discharge, mussels and tap water. The accumulation rate in mussels seems to be rather slow at the ambient water concentrations.     

Phosphorus loss from different farming systems estimated from soil surface phosphorus balance

The phosphorus load originating from crop production and animal husbandry is a major contributor to the eutrophication of lakes, rivers and coastal waters. The P losses to surface waters may, however, differ drastically due to the diversity of agricultural production systems practised under contrasting environmental conditions. To assess the most problematic types of agriculture, we need information on the P load from different alternative farming practices. Such information cannot, however, be obtained solely from field runoff experiments, as the number of treatment combinations required to account for all relevant farming systems and environmental conditions far exceeds our research capabilities. To facilitate the comparison of P loads, we therefore need reasonably simple models. A key factor controlling the P load from agriculture is the past and present use of nutrients in fertilizers and manure in relation to a crop's uptake, i.e. the soil-surface balance of P. Here, we present a simple empirical model that relates the P surplus (or deficit) in a farm to the edge-of-field losses of algal-available P. Based on long-term fertilizer trials, the model first estimates the change in soil-test P of top soil with the aid of the soil-surface balance of P. Soil-test P is then used to approximate the concentration of dissolved reactive P in surface runoff and drainage flow, as adjusted for different P application types. The loss of particulate P is obtained from typical erosion rates. The model can be applied in life-cycle analyses and in assessing future developments. We illustrate use of the model by calculating the loss of algal-available P from conventional and organic crop and dairy farms located on clay and fine sand soils.     

Randomized trial comparing first-trimester transcervical chorionic villus sampling and second-trimester amniocentesis

A total of 800 patients were randomized at the 9th to 11th week of pregnancy either for transcervical chorionic villus sampling (CVS) on the day of trial entry or for amniocentesis (AC) at the 16th week. The indication for fetal karyotyping was maternal age in 94 per cent of the cases; the mean maternal age was 39.2 years. An adequate sample was obtained in 98.3 per cent of the cases in the CVS group and in all cases in the AC group. Retesting was indicated in 3.3 per cent of the CVS cases. An abnormal karyotype was found in 6.1 per cent of the CV samples and in 4.5 per cent of the amniotic fluid samples. There was one false-positive chromosome result in both groups. Twelve (3.1 per cent) miscarriages occurred by the 22nd week of pregnancy in the CVS group in pregnancies intended to continue. No difference was seen between the groups for total fetal loss rates. The number of surviving infants in the CVS group was 92.2 per cent and in the AC group 91.7 per cent (rate difference 0.5 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval − 3.3 to 4.3)). In our study, both the diagnostic accuracy and the risk of fetal loss were equal in the CVS and AC groups.     

Release of uranium from rock matrix—a record of glacial meltwater intrusions?

Uranium release observed in a rock matrix around water-carrying fractures was studied using U-series disequilibrium (USD) modelling and mass balance calculations. Several release scenarios were tested, with specific attention to the glacial aspects. The release appears to have occurred in two or three violent episodes during the last 300 ky. A release after the last glaciation can be excluded on mass flow grounds. Continuous release for more than 300 ky can be excluded on radioactive disequilibrium grounds. Repeated inflows of oxic glacial meltwater seem to have triggered the release episodes.     

Recent trends of biocides in pikes of the Lake Päijänne

Pikes were sampled in May 1980 from three areas of the Lake Päijänne, Finland and analyzed for their contents of total mercury, methyl mercury, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), DDE, PCB and chlorophenolic residues. An improved method for methyl mercury determination was applied and 82–84 % methylation of mercury in pikes regardless of area or biological variation was observed. Statistical analysis with previous results from the same areas gave a very significant decreasing trend of mercury levels at all three areas from 1970 to 1980. Future levels of mercury in fish to be consumed as food could be estimated from the trend regression. The very low levels of DDE and PCB showed some increasing trend when the influence of fat contents was eliminated by covariance analysis. General appearance of HCB at sub-ppb level was observed. Also pentachlorophenol occured at 10–70 ppb (fresh weight) levels at all areas, but the other chlorophenols were abundant only at Tiirinselkä which is most contaminated by pulp bleaching effluents.     

The effect of inorganic and organic chlorine on formation of highly chlorinated organic compounds during incineration: Laboratory pilot study

Aliphatic liquid as a basic fuel was incinerated in a laboratory scale pilot plant. Inorganic chlorine and organic chlorine mixed with basic fuel were used as additive chemicals. Sodium chloride (NaCl) and tetrachloroethylene (C₂Cl₄) were used as the sources of inorganic and organic chlorine. Combustion parameters were adjusted for optimum combustion and, consequently, the amount of particles in flue gases was low. The concentrations of chlorine in flue gases were high enough for possible formation reactions of organic chlorinated compounds in all of the chlorine input tests. An increase in chlorine input did not significantly increase the amounts of highly chlorinated organic compounds, like PCDD/Fs. The main result was that chlorophenol concentrations increased in parallel with organic chlorine input. Comparing organic chlorine to inorganic chlorine tests showed that more highly substituted PCDD/F congeners were formed when organic chlorine was the additive chlorine source. The formation of highly chlorinated organic compounds such as PCDD/Fs requires not only chlorine and aliphatic fuel to be formed, but some catalysts are also needed.     

Occupational hygiene in a Finnish drum composting plant

Bioaerosols (microbes, dust and endotoxins) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were determined in the working air of a drum composting plant treating source-separated catering waste. Different composting activities at the Oulu drum composting plant take place in their own units separated by modular design and constructions. Important implication of this is that the control room is a relatively clean working environment and the risk of exposure to harmful factors is low. However, the number of viable airborne microbes was high both in the biowaste receiving hall and in the drum composting hall. The concentration (geometric average) of total microbes was 21.8 million pcs/m3 in the biowaste receiving hall, 13.9 million pcs/m3 in the drum composting hall, and just 1.4 million pcs/m3 in the control room. Endotoxin concentrations were high in the biowaste receiving hall and in the drum composting hall. The average (arithmetic) endotoxin concentration was over the threshold value of 200 EU/m3 in both measurement locations. In all working areas, the average (arithmetic) dust concentrations were in a low range of 0.6-0.7 mg/m3, being below the Finnish threshold value of 5 mg/m3. In the receiving hall and drum composting hall, the concentrations of airborne microbes and endotoxins may rise to levels hazardous to health during prolonged exposure. It is advisable to use a respirator mask (class P3) in these areas. Detected volatile organic compounds were typical compounds of composting plants: carboxylic acids and their esters, alcohols, ketones, aldehydes, and terpenes. Concentrations of VOCs were much lower than the Finnish threshold limit values (Finnish TLVs), many of the quantified compounds exceeded their threshold odour concentrations (TOCs). Primary health effects due VOCs were not presumable at these concentrations but unpleasant odours may cause secondary symptoms such as nausea and hypersensitivity reactions. This situation is typical of composting plants where the workers are exposed to dozens of VOCs simultaneously. The odour units (OU/m3) were measured using olfactometer. The numbers were 23,000 OU/m3 at the output end of the composting drum and 6300 OU/m3 in the exhaust pipe. Inside the composting hall, the number of odour units was 500 and 560 OU/m3.