EVALUATING RELIABILITY OF STORAGE SCHEMES WITH DENDROHYDROLOGY AND THE HURST PHENOMENON1

ABSTRACT: The mean annual flow at a damsite during a water project yield study of several decades may differ considerably from the mean flow of several hundred years. The frequency of the most severe droughts of record may be much different than apparent from the historical record as well. Dendrohydrology and the Hurst Phenomenon provide means to evaluate the validity of the study period for project reliability analysis. The most severe hydrologic drought (1928–1934) affecting the watersheds of the Sacramento River and tributaries in Northern California during the 75-year period 1906–1980 was also the worst drought in 421 years (1560–1980). In contrast, the most severe drought (1945–1951) in the Santa Ynez River watershed in Santa Barbara County, California, during the 62-year period 1918–1979 was the ninth worst drought in 443 years (1537–1979). Thus, in one case the drought risk indicated by the dendrohydrologic time series would actually be less; in the other, actual risk would be greater than perceived from the historical record. In the absence of a dendrohydrologic prehistoric time series, Hurst Phenomena would have provided clues to this outcome. Hurstian plotting of the accumulated deviation from the mean for long time series facilitates observation of the wet-dry regime of the examples and identification of characteristics that should be accounted for in water development planning.     

Larval dispersal of a deep-sea hydrothermal vent bivalve from the Galápagos Rift

The prodissoconch morphology of an unclassified mytilid from a hydrothermal vent on the Galápagos Rift indicates the presence of a planktotrophic larval stage with longrange dispersal capabilities. Recorded abyssal currents are probably sufficient to transport such larvae hundreds of kilometers. It is suggested that one or more aspects of the unusual biological or physico-chemical conditions (such as high microbial densities, elevated water temperatures, and hydrogen sulfide concentrations) encountered at vents, provide a stimulus to larval settlement. Such a behavioral response, perhaps coupled with a gregarious settling response, would provide a means of concentrating relatively sedentary organisms in and around these restricted, geographically isolated regions.     

Variation in vegetation cover and livestock mobility needs in Sahelian West Africa

A new approach was developed to evaluate the implications of the spatiotemporal variability of green vegetation for the dispersion of livestock that is required to access quality forage in semi-arid Africa. Maximum NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) at 1 km² resolution was determined for concentric rings (0–31 km radii) around 227 individual sample locations within the study area for 14 dates (between 1 April to 1 November) annually over the 2000–2010 period. A sigmoidal curve was fitted to points within the maximum NDVI × distance radii space to determine the asymptote distance (AD) – the radius at which further dispersion from the sample location does not lead to significant gains in access to green forage. AD was found to: increase with latitude (or increasing aridity); decline as the rainy season proceeds; and show no trend over the 2000–2010 period. These results introduce much-needed empirical data to current debates surrounding the scales of governance to support livestock mobility.     

Limited change in the diversity and structure of subtidal communities over four decades

A unique archive of photographs from 1969 to 1974 permitted a test of the hypothesis that the diversity and composition of contemporary epilithic communities on subtidal rock walls in the San Juan Islands, WA, USA, has changed over 40 years. Notably, the richness and diversity of sessile taxa was significantly higher in 2008–2011. Furthermore, the multivariate community structure of sessile and mobile taxa differed between the historic and modern eras. Historic communities were characterized by a high percent cover of bare rock and non-calcified algal crusts, consistent with the effects of grazing by chitons and urchins. The rate of sessile community turnover, an index less susceptible to spatial sampling artifacts than richness or diversity, was not significantly different between the two eras. Together with the naturally high spatial variability in these epilithic communities, and the limited replication of historic quadrats, we interpret cautiously the data as evidence of limited change despite a clear shift in temperature and predator (fish) guild composition. The lack of substantial change in rock wall communities may be due in part to their vertical topography, which limits physical disturbance and the preemption of space by weedy algae, two processes that are often associated with “phase-shifts” in other marine ecosystems.     

The Influence of Varying Algal Biomass On Contaminant Exposure in Benthic-Planktonic Mesocosms: Copper (Ii)

Abstract

A series of mesocosms was exposed to a suite of light treatments and nutrient enrichment in order to generate algal communities of varying biomass. the influence of this biomass on the speciation of copper (II) was studied. Distribution coefficients ( _Kd,Lkg?1) were relatively high (log _Kd = 5 to 7), indicative of robust trace metal sequestration, and were likely controlled by the particulate organic carbon content (foc). Differences in _Kd over time and among treatments were significant, as was the relationship between _Kd and foc. Fluorescence quenching was used to determine binding capacities ( _Lt , M) and their associated binding constants ( _Kcond ,M^?1) in order to model the solid phase copper speciation. the _Kcond ranged between 2.1 and 5.2 × 10¹²M^?1, indicating a very strong copper-ligand complex, and was higher in mesocosms that received more light. the light _Lt increased over time, dramatically after the nutrient enrichment, but did not vary systematically among light treatments. _Lt ranged from 7.2 × 10? 7 to 4.9 × 10? 5 M. the large magnitudes of _Kd , _Kcond and _Lt ensured that greater than 97% of total copper in the mesocosms was complexed by organic matter. the total copper concentration ([Cu]_T, M) needed to reach a target dissolved copper concentration of 10^?12.5 M (pCu = 12.5) was determined for each mesocosm over time. [Cu]_T was between 8.02 × 10^?5 and 3.41 × 10^?2 M, and increased over time. the [Cu]_T normalized to the target pCu (Effective Dose Ratio, EDR) increased directly with increases in algal biomass, indicating a direct link between system productivity and copper exposure. Approximately 45% of the variance in EDR was explained by variance in total biomass, while the residual variance in EDR was due likely to differences in the strengths of particle associations and magnitude of binding capacities.     

Effects of climate and exurban development on nest predation and predator presence in the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA)

In the eastern United States, land-use and climate change have likely contributed to declines in the abundance of Neotropical migrant birds that occupy forest interiors, but the mechanisms are not well understood. We conducted a nest-predation experiment in southern Appalachian Mountain forests (North Carolina, U.S.A.) during the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons to determine the effects of exurban development and temperature on predator presence and the average number of days until eggs in an artificial nest were disturbed by predators. We baited artificial nests with quail (Excalfactoria chinensi) eggs and monitored them for 18 days. We used clay eggs, track plates, and motion-triggered cameras to detect and identify nest predators. The average number of days a nest was undisturbed decreased as mean temperature increased and, to a lesser extent, as the density of buildings increased. Nests on the ground were more often depredated than those in trees, likely due to increased predation by opossum (Didelphis virginiana) and other carnivores. Raccoons (Procyon lotor), opossums, corvids (Corvus brachyrhynchos and Cyanocitta cristata), chipmunks (Tamias striatus), black bears (Ursus americanus), and domestic cats (Felis catus) were the most commonly detected predators. Presence of these predators did not vary as a function of mean temperature. Domestic cats and corvids were detected more frequently in plots with high rather than low densities of buildings. Forest-interior specialists and Neotropical migrants often nest in cool, high-elevation areas with low housing density. These bird species, especially those that nest on the ground, may be most vulnerable to increased nest predation if temperature and exurban development increase at higher elevations as anticipated.     

CHEMICAL CONSTITUENTS IN STORM FLOW VS. DRY WEATHER DISCHARGES IN CALIFORNIA STORM WATER CONVEYANCES1

ABSTRACT: This research evaluated concentration data for selected water quality parameters in selected California urban separate storm sewer systems during storm event discharges and during dry weather conditions. We used existing monitoring data from multiple regulatory agencies and municipalities originally collected for compliance or local characterization, which allowed systematic assessment of seasonal patterns over a wide region. Long term mean concentration for most parameters in most streams was higher during storm discharges than during dry weather flows to at least 95 percent confidence in 20 of 45 comparative evaluations, and lower statistical confidence in 22 other comparisons. Some regional differences emerged: in four evaluated streams in the San Francisco Bay Area, total concentration of lead, copper and zinc were lower during dry weather than during storm flows to at least 99.9 percent confidence, with only one exception; while the other four evaluated California streams showed the same tendency, but to much lower statistical confidence.     

Mechanistic Virtual Modeling: Coupling a Plant Simulation Model with a Three-dimensional Plant Architecture Component

The aim of this research is to integrate plant architectural modeling or “visualization modeling” and “mechanistic” or physiologically based modeling to describe how a real plant functions using a virtual crop. Virtual crops are life-like computer representations of crops based on individual plants and including the representation of the substrate on which the plants grow. The integration of a three-dimensional expression and the mechanistic model of plant development and growth requires the knowledge of the position of the organs along the different plant axes (the topology), their sizes, their forms, and their spatial orientation. The plant simulation model simulates the topology and organ weight or length. The superposition of spatial position and the topology produces the architecture of the plant. The association between sizes and organs creates what we refer to as the plant morphological model. Both components, the architectural model and the morphology model, are detailed in this paper. Once the integration is complete, the system produces a movie-like animation that shows the plant growing. The integrated model may simulate one or several plants growing simultaneously (in parallel). Visual capabilities make the proposed system very unique as it allows users to judge the results of the simulation the same way a farmer judges the situation of the crops in real life, by visually observing the field.