CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR FLOOD EVENTS UNDER A PEARSON 3 OR LOG PEARSON 3 DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: The Pearson type 3 (P3) and log Pearson type 3 (LP3) distributions are very frequently used in flood frequency analysis. Existing methods for constructing confidence intervals for quantiles (X_p) of these two distributions are very crude. Most of these methods are based on the idea of adjusting confidence intervals for quantiles Y_p of the normal distribution to obtain approximate confidence inervals for quantiles X_p of the P3/LP3 distribution. Since there is no theoretical reason why this “base” distribution, Y, should be taken to be normal, we search in the present study for the best possible base distribution for producing confidence intervals for P3/LP3 quantiles. We consider a group of base distributions such as the normal, log normal, Weibull, Gumbel, and exponential. We first assume that the skew coefficient, γ of X, to be known, and develop a method for adjusting confidence intervals for Y_p to produce approximate confidence intervals for X_p. We then compare this method (Method A) with another method (Method B) introduced by Stedinger. Simulation shows that the performance of each of these two methods depends on the base distribution Y that is being used, but as a whole, the normal distribution appears to be the best-fit distribution for producing confidence intervals for P3/LP3 quantiles when γ is assumed to be known. We then extend our method (Method A) to the more important case of unknown coefficient of skewness. It is shown that by taking Y to be Weibull, fairly accurate confidence intervals for P3/LP3 quantiles can be obtained for quite a wide range of sample sizes and coefficients of skewness commonly found in hydrology. The case of the P3 distribution with negative skewness needs further research.     

A Hydrologic/Water Quality Model Applicati11

Abstract: This paper presents a procedure for standard application of hydrologic/water quality models. To date, most hydrologic/water quality modeling projects and studies have not utilized formal protocols, but rather have employed ad hoc approaches. The procedure proposed is an adaptation and extension of steps identified from relevant literature including guidance provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This protocol provides guidance for establishing written plans prior to conducting modeling efforts. Eleven issues that should be addressed in model application plans were identified and discussed in the context of hydrologic/water quality studies. A graded approach for selection of the level of documentation for each item was suggested. The creation and use of environmental modeling plans is increasingly important as the results of modeling projects are used in decision‐making processes that have significant implications. Standard modeling application protocols similar to the proposed procedure herein provide modelers with a roadmap to be followed, reduces modelers’ bias, enhances the reproducibility of model application studies, and eventually improves acceptance of modeling outcomes.     

ROLE OF WATERSHED SUBDIVISION ON MODELING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES WITH SWAT1

Distributed parameter watershed models are often used for evaluating the effectiveness of various best management practices (BMPs). Streamflow, sediment, and nutrient yield predictions of a watershed model can be affected by spatial resolution as dictated by watershed subdivision. The objectives of this paper are to show that evaluation of BMPs using a model is strongly linked to the level of watershed subdivision; to suggest a methodology for identifying an appropriate subdivision level; and to examine the efficacy of different BMPs at field and watershed scales. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment, and nutrient yields at the outlet of the Dreisbach (623 ha) and Smith Fry (730 ha) watersheds in Maumee River Basin, Indiana. Grassed waterways, grade stabilization structures, field borders, and parallel terraces are the BMPs that were installed in the study area in the 1970s. Sediment and nutrient outputs from the calibrated model were compared at various watershed subdivision levels, both with and without implementation of these BMPs. Results for the study watersheds indicated that evaluation of the impacts of these BMPs on sediment and nutrient yields was very sensitive to the level of subdivision that was implemented in SWAT. An optimal watershed subdivision level for representation of the BMPs was identified through numerical simulations. For the study watersheds, it would appear that the average subwatershed area corresponding to approximately 4 percent of total watershed area is needed to represent the influence of these BMPs when using the SWAT model.     

The infinite-lived rat—An equal-age replacement process

Equal-age replacement is used to formulate the competing-risk problem in terms of a set of nonhomogenous Poisson processes whose mean value functions are the set of cumulative hazards (the integrals of the age-and cause-specific incidence rates). Cumulative hazard is estimated by a weighted count that is the sum of the reciprocals of numbers at risk at the times of occurrence of the specific risk. Occurrence data are generally insufficient to distinguish between plausible forms of the distribution function or types of nonparametric shifts with dose. More emphasis has to be given to understanding the biological mechanisms that dictate the parametric form to be fitted to the data.     

A tunable diode laser absorption spectrometer for formaldehyde atmospheric measurements validated by simulation chamber instrumentation

A tunable diode laser absorption spectrometer (TDLAS) for formaldehyde atmospheric measurements has been set up and validated through comparison experiments with a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FT-IR) in a simulation chamber. Formaldehyde was generated in situ in the chamber from reaction of ethene with ozone. Three HCHO ro-vibrational line intensities (at 2909.71, 2912.09 and 2914.46 cm^-1) possibly used by TDLAS were calibrated by FT-IR spectra simultaneously recorded in the 1600-3200 cm^-1 domain during ethene ozonolysis, enabling the on-line deduction of the varying concentration for HCHO in formation. The experimental line intensities values inferred confirmed the calculated ones from the updated HITRAN database. In addition, the feasibility of stratospheric in situ HCHO measurements using the 2912.09 cm^-1 line was demonstrated. The TDLAS performances were also assessed, leading to a 2σ detection limit of 88 ppt in volume mixing ratio with a response time of 60 sec at 30 Torr and 294 K for 112 m optical path. As part of this work, the room-temperature rate constant of this reaction and the HCHO formation yield were found to be in excellent agreement with the compiled literature data.     

The concept of resilience revisited

The intimate connections between disaster recovery by and the resilience of affected communities have become common features of disaster risk reduction programmes since the adoption of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. Increasing attention is now paid to the capacity of disaster-affected communities to 'bounce back' or to recover with little or no external assistance following a disaster. This highlights the need for a change in the disaster risk reduction work culture, with stronger emphasis being put on resilience rather than just need or vulnerability. However, varied conceptualisations of resilience pose new philosophical challenges. Yet achieving a consensus on the concept remains a test for disaster research and scholarship. This paper reviews the concept in terms of definitional issues, the role of vulnerability in resilience discourse and its meaning, and the differences between vulnerability and resilience. It concludes with some of the more immediately apparent implications of resilience thinking for the way we view and prepare for disasters.     

One-dimensional numerical modelling of dam-break waves over movable beds: application to experimental and field cases

This paper reports a numerical study on dam-break waves over movable beds. A one-dimensional (1-D) model is built upon the Saint-Venant equations for shallow water waves, the Exner equation of sediment mass conservation and a spatial lag equation for non-equilibrium sediment transport. The set of governing equations is solved using an explicit finite difference scheme. The model is tested in various idealized experimental cases, with fairly good agreement between the numerical predictions and measurements. Discrepancies are observed at the earlier stage of the dam-break wave and around the dam location due to no vertical velocity component being taken into account. Sensitivity tests confirm that the friction coefficient is an important parameter for the evaluation of sediment transport processes operating during a dam-break wave. The influence of the non-equilibrium adaptation length (or the lag distance) is negligible on the wavefront celerity and weak on the free surface and bed profiles, which indicates that one may ignore the spatial lag effect in dam-break wave studies. Finally, the simulation of the Lake Ha!Ha! dyke-break flood event shows that the model can provide relevant results if a convenient formula for computing the sediment transport capacity and an appropriate median grain diameter of riverbed material are selected.     

Perceptions of using low-quality irrigation water in vegetable production in Morogoro,Tanzania

This study was conducted to examine perceptions of the farmers and key informants on the use of low-quality irrigation water for vegetable production in urban and peri-urban areas in Morogoro, Tanzania. The methods used to collect data were farmer surveys (n = 60), focus group discussions (n = 4) and key informants interviews (n = 15). The results showed that the respondents had a positive perception on using low-quality irrigation water for vegetable production. The reported benefits include availability of water throughout the year, highest soil and crop nutrients in irrigation water, less costs of buying commercial fertilizers, vegetable production all year round, sustainable income generation from selling vegetables and also jobs creation in the community among farmers and vegetable sellers. Findings from Mann–Whitney U test and Kruskal–Wallis test score on farmers perception scales indicate an association between the source of low-quality water used and the respondents’ sex. Accordingly, female farmers had higher positive perception on the benefits of low-quality water compared to male farmers. Higher perception score was also observed among farmers who used polluted river water in irrigation vegetable production compared to farmers who used wastewater. Since low-quality irrigation water is a good strategy of coping with scarcity of freshwater for communities which have no alternative source of irrigation water, the study recommends multi-sectorial agencies across the country to be involved in formulating policies and creating health promotion awareness for safe use of low-quality water for benefit maximization and health risk reduction.     

Microbial diversity and ecological networks as indicators of environmental quality

Evaluating the quality of ecosystems in terms of biological patrimony and functioning is of critical importance in the actual context of intensified human activities. Microbial diversity is commonly used as a bioindicator of ecosystems functioning. However, there is a lack of sensitivity of microbial diversity indicators in the case of moderate and chronic environmental degradation, such as atmospheric deposition of pollutants, agricultural practices, diffuse pollution by wastewater and climate change. As a consequence, there is a need for alternative bioindicators of soils and water quality. Here, we discuss the interest of adopting a more integrative approach based on biotic interaction networks beyond the simple diversity indicators. We review how the various biotic interactions can be integrated in the various microbial networks such as trophic, mutualistic and co-occurrence networks. Then we discuss the efficiency of microbial networks and associated metrics to detect changes in microbial communities. We conclude that the connectance, the number of links and the average degree of co-occurrence networks could vary from 10 to 50% in response to minor perturbations when microbial diversity parameters remain stable. Finally, we analyze studies that aimed at linking microbial networks and activity to evaluate the potential of such networks for providing simple and operational indicators of ecosystem quality and functioning.     

Comparison of PoraPak Rxn RP and XAD-2 adsorbents for monitoring dissolved hydrophobic organic contaminants

Accurate determination of the levels of dissolved hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) is an important step in estimating the dynamics of their inputs and losses in aqueous systems. This study explores an alternative method for efficiently sampling dissolved HOCs while mitigating a number of sampling artifacts associated with traditional methods. The adsorption characteristics of a new polymeric resin, PoraPak Rxn RP (PPR), were assessed using sorption isotherm experiments and fixed bed adsorption studies. The adsorption capacities and breakthrough times for four model contaminants (phenol, p-nitrophenol, naphthalene, and 2,4,6-tribromophenol) were proportional to the contaminant’s hydrophobicity. The ability of PPR to isolate dissolved polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in real samples was compared with that of XAD-2, a well-known macroporous polymer that suffers from high background contamination. The results indicated that the PPR resin can be effectively used for monitoring HOCs, with low ∑PCB levels in blanks, decreasing solvent use, and reducing extraction times.