Changes in soil quality and below-ground carbon storage with conversion of traditional agricultural crop lands to bioenergy crop production

Berm-isolated (0.5 ha) plots have been used since 1995 to quantify changes in soil and water quality with conversion from agricultural to bioenergy crops. Soil quality improvements, including increases in soil carbon storage, have occurred on sites planted to woody or herbaceous species, and no-till corn compared with tilled corn or cotton. Initial increases in soil carbon occurred within the upper 10 cm of the soil profile. Soil carbon on plantings of switchgrass, no-till corn, and sweetgum with a cover crop between the rows increased over the first 3 years. Soil carbon decreased by 6% on the sweetgum plantings without a cover crop and remained lower through the fifth growing season. Overall, the greatest increases in below ground carbon storage have occurred primarily within the upper 40 cm. Former land use, growth characteristics, management practices, and soil characteristics appear to be the primary factors determining the timing, depth. and extent of changes in soil carbon storage for bioenergy and no-till crops.     

HAZOP study training from the 1970s to today

An account is given of HAZOP study training from the simple methods used initially to modern methods such as e-learning courses. An especial mention is given to the role of Trevor Kletz in initiating public courses.     

Caloric values of some North Atlantic invertebrates

Nineteen marine species were analyzed for caloric value; 7 of these were analysed for seasonal trends. Variation in caloric value for the polychaetesNephtys incisa andLumbrineris fragilis was not related to season.Pandalus montagui (decapod shrimp),Leptocheirus pinguis (gammarid amphipod),Astarte undata, Arctica islandica (pelecypods) had summer maxima.Meganyctiphanes norvegica (krill) had more complex seasonal changes involving winter and summer maxima.     

Long-term change in the suitability of welsh streams for dippers Cinclus cinclus as a result of acidification and recovery: a modelling study

Using a recognized and widely used hydrochemical model, MAGIC, long-term changes in acidity were simulated at 104 sites in the acid sensitive region of upland Wales. Conditions were modelled in the future (2010) under different reductions in sulphate deposition from 0 to 90% of 1984 values. Chemical output from the model was used to simulate change in the chemical suitability of streams for a species of river bird, the Dipper Cinclus cinclus, known to be affected by acidification According to simulations, only reductions in sulphate deposition by over 50% of 1984 levels prevented decline in the number of streams chemically suitable for Dippers. Greater reductions in deposition in the model permitted some recovery except where conifer forestry occupied acid sensitive catchments. There are several uncertainties with the models in their present form.     

Growth and recruitment of the deep-sea urchin Echinus affinis

Large samples of the sea urchin Echinus affinis Mortensen were obtained from a time-series of Agassiz trawlings from a 2 200 m-deep permanent station (Station M), and at neighbouring positions, in the Rockall Trough (North-east Atlantic Ocean) over a period of 7 yr (1978 to 1985). Counts of growth zones visible in the skeletal elements of the test were used to age individuals. Various growth functions were fitted to counts from a full range of the sizes available. Functions giving a sigmoidal growth curve fit the early phase of growth better than the von Bertalanffy model, although the latter provided better fit amongst larger sizes. The fit of a robust and flexible model recently developed by Preece and Baines to describe the human growth curve overcame this limitation. Skeletal banding is thought to result from seasonally varying growth as a result of annually pulsed fallout of phyto-detrital food to the deep-sea floor. Early stages were found in only a few of a time series of samples obtained with a fine-meshed epibenthic sledge, suggesting that recruitment to the population from its annual breeding may only occasionally be successful. Postlarval growth was estimated from samples taken soon after presumed settlement and later in the year. The fitted growth curve showed good agreement to that obtained from annual banding, and corroborates an initially exponentially increasing growth rate. Postlarval survivorship was estimated, by means of computer simulation, from a sample that included postlarvae along with a range in juvenile size, to be about 10% amongst postlarvae after settlement and thereafter about 90% yr^-1. Adults are inferred to be up to about 28 yr old. A markedly uneven representation of ages in a large subsample of aged adults of even frequency in size is interpreted by means of simulations as probably reflecting multi-year cycles in recruitment success. The possible causes of a varying size structure amongst large samples of adults, which showed some spatial segregation in relation to the track of the trawl on the bottom at Station M, are discussed.     

Re-appraisal of age composition,growth and survivorship of the deep-sea brittle star Ophiura ljungmani from size structure in a sample time series from the Rockall Trough

Samples were taken from a 2 900 m deep permanent station (centred on 54°40N; 12°16W) in the southern Rockall Trough, from November 1975 to September 1980, inclusive. Revision of juvenile size frequencies was necessary after removal of postlarvae of an annual non-viable settlement of Ophiocten gracilis (G. O. Sars) that were mistakenly included in a previous analysis. The present study of the revised data shows that settlement of Ophiura ljungmani (Lyman) occurs in summer when disk-size frequencies are dominated by the newly metamorphosed postlarvae. The likely age composition in larger sizes was suggested from the progression of modes along the size axis in juvenile size classes in consecutive were developed from Gaussian mixtures fitted by constrained computer search using, as starting values, component parameter values suggested from the frequency histograms. Choice between competing solutions was made on the basis both of goodness-of-fit and biological plausibility. However, identification of year-class structure amongst sizes >3 to 4 mm disk diameter remained conjectural owing to the low frequencies of adults in the samples. Comparison of the fitted component-means in the time series suggested a marked seasonal growth pattern, with maximal growth in spring. Probable age composition amongst adult sizes was extrapolated from von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated from the means of juvenile year classes.Communicated by J. Mauchline, Oban     

Effects of point-source PCB contamination on breeding performance and post-fledging survival in the dipper Cinclus cinclus

Despite widespread information on the incidence and biochemical effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in birds, field studies of effects on population processes are still scarce. This is particularly so in passerines. We therefore assessed breeding performance and post-fledging survival in dippers, Cinclus cinclus, breeding along the Afon Mule, a Welsh river where previous work indicated locally elevated PCB concentrations. We hypothesised that marked toxicological effects, including endocrine disruption, would be detectable as altered clutch-size, hatching success, nest success, brood-size, post-fledging survival or recruitment to the breeding population. Congener-specific analysis of PCBs in failed and deserted dipper eggs during 1990-93 revealed that geometric mean concentrations were four to 20 times higher along the Mule than elsewhere in Wales, UK. PCB signatures also varied highly significantly from other locations, with congeners 138, 153 and 180 dominant at the contaminated site, but 118 or 170 more frequent in eggs elsewhere. Subsequent analysis of surface runoff confirmed a small breaker's yard as a point source. Neither laying dates, clutch-sizes, brood-sizes, nest failure nor hatching failure along the contaminated Mule (n=46 breeding attempts and 218 eggs) differed significantly from dippers along adjacent reference rivers (n=82 breeding attempts and 315 eggs) or Welsh rivers as a whole (n=332 breeding attempts and 1534 eggs). Subsequent recaptures of breeding dippers ringed initially as nestlings were nearly identical between the Mule (7.7% of 182 nestlings), the reference set (7.5% of 323 nestlings) and all other Welsh rivers (7.3% of 2821 nestlings). These data illustrate the value of congener-specific analysis of bird's eggs in indicating local PCB sources. The data show also that PCBs can occur in dipper eggs at total concentrations of 0.49 (geometric mean)-1.29 (upper quartile) microg g(-1) wet mass without effects on breeding performance and survival. These values are below those at which biochemical or reproductive effects on other passerines have been detected, but above current concentrations in any other population of European dippers for which PCB data are available. Population effects by PCBs on European dippers are therefore unlikely. Survivors from locally contaminated sites like that in our study might allow field assessments of second-generation effects on breeding performance in wild birds that have developed under PCB exposure.     

Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

● A novel framework integrating quantile regression with machine learning is proposed. ● It aims to identify factors driving observations to upper boundary of relationship. ● Increasing N:P and TN concentration help fulfill the effect of TP on CHL. ● Wetter and warmer decrease potential and increase eutrophication control difficulty. ● The framework advances applications of quantile regression and machine learning. The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N׃P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N׃P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.