Assessing agricultural land-use change in the Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa: application of mixed multinomial logit

On-farm tree cultivation is considered an important strategy to mitigate detrimental environmental impacts of agricultural land-use change (ALUC). In South Africa, however, little is known about farm-level incentives and constraints that govern ALUC decisions among small-scale farmers. To address this knowledge gap, this study employs a mixed multinomial logit model by using a combination of revealed and stated preference data. After correcting for endogeneity, the estimated results show that decisions about ALUC are rationally derived and driven by clear but heterogeneous preferences and trade-offs between crop productivity, food security and labour saving. The results further show that the decision to plant sugarcane is constrained by landholding, whilst farmland afforestation is negatively influenced by household size. Decisions to convert land use are also driven by the behaviour of peer groups and agro-ecological conditions. Based on these findings, important policy implications for sustainable land use are outlined.     

Types of narrow-skulled vole (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lasiopodomys gregalis</Emphasis>) colonies in Northern Kulunda and seasonal dynamics of their demographic composition

Demographic structure and its seasonal dynamics have been studied in colonies of narrow-skulled voles (Lasiopodomys gregalis Pall.) in Northern Kulunda. Three types of colonies have been distinguished: (I) true colonies (large, complex families), (II) simple families (nuclear or incomplete), and (III) all-male colonies. Changes in their sex, age, and functional composition (based on animal migration activity) during the breeding season have been analyzed.     

Forest protection and economic development by offshoring wood extraction: Bhutan’s clean development path

With globalization, virtual exchanges of natural resources embodied in traded commodities redistribute geographically land use and its environmental impacts. Benefits of national forest protection may be undermined at the global-scale by leakage through international trade. We studied land use displacement associated with national policies to protect forests in Bhutan. This case study provides a simple situation: a dominant forest cover almost unaffected by agricultural expansion, a rural economy dominated by the primary sector, centralized forest conservation policies, and a dominant trading partner. We assessed the net effects at the international level of the Bhutanese forest protection policies by accounting for trade in wood products with India. Our results show that these policies have been effective in maintaining a high forest cover, but have been accompanied by an increasing displacement of forest use to India. In 1996–2011, the difference between the total volume of wood imported from India and the total volume exported from Bhutan—i.e., the net displacement—corresponds to 27 % of the total volume consumed in Bhutan. In 2011, 68 % of the total forest area required to produce the wood consumed in Bhutan was located in India. The wood imported by Bhutan was likely originating from tree plantations in the northeastern Indian states. Since Bhutan has few tree plantations and very valuable natural forests, the net international-level ecological impacts of this land use displacement is arguably positive. Most of the wood imports of Bhutan were wood charcoal for its emerging chemical industries. This case of displacement reflects functional upgrading in the value-chain rather than an externalization of consumption-based environmental costs. Through its government policies, Bhutan has managed to support its economic development while protecting its forests and leapfrogging the negative impacts on forests generally associated with the early stages of modernization.     

Four decades of glacier mass balance observations in the Indian Himalaya

Understanding the glacier mass balance is necessary to explain the rate of shrinkage and to infer the impact of climate change. The present study provides an overview of the glacier mass balance records by glaciological, geodetic, hydrological and accumulation-area ratio (AAR) and specific mass balance relationship methods in the Indian Himalaya since 1970s. It suggests that the mass balance measurements by glaciological methods have been conducted for ten glaciers in the western Himalaya, four glaciers in the central Himalaya and one in the eastern Himalaya. Hydrological mass balance has been conducted only on Siachen Glacier from 1987 to 1991. Geodetic method has been attempted for the Lahaul–Spiti region for a short time span during 1999–2011 and Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region from 2003 to 2008. We compared in situ specific balance data series with specific mass balance derived from AAR and specific mass balance relationship. The results derived from existing and newly presented regression model based on AAR and specific mass balance relationship induced unrealistic specific mass balance for several glaciers. We also revised AAR0 and ELA0 based on available in situ AAR and specific mass balance data series of Indian Himalayan glaciers. In general, in situ specific and cumulative specific mass balance observed over different regions of the Indian Himalayan glaciers shows mostly negative mass balance years with a few positive ones during 1974–2012. On a regional level, the geodetic studies suggest that on the whole western, the central and the eastern Himalaya experienced vast thinning during the last decade (2000s). Conversely, Karakoram region showed slight mass gain during almost similar period. However, the glaciological, hydrological and geodetic mass balance data appear to exhibit short time series bias. We therefore recommend creation of benchmark glaciers network for future research to determine the impact of climate change on the Himalayan cryosphere.     

Recent sediment accumulation rates in contrasting lakes in the Carpathians (Romania): impacts of shifts in socio-economic regime

Longer-term environmental studies are increasingly used to better understand contemporary ecosystems conditions and for forecasting their future trajectories. Here, we use radiometric measurements and the characterisation of sediment properties from six mountain and a lowland lake in Central Eastern Europe with the aim to assess temporal and spatial variability in sediment accumulation rates (SARs) in relation to three socio-economic regimes: traditional (1840–1948), socialist (1948–1989) and post-socialist (post-1990). We also set out to determine reference conditions for these lakes i.e. conditions before significant human impact. Our results show a trend of increasing SARs from basal sediments (pre 1840) towards the present at only two sites. This contrasts with findings from Western and Central European lakes where SARs have predominantly increased from 1850 towards the top of cores. We highlight the differential impacts of the traditional, socialist and post-socialist periods on the SARs at these lakes. Lowland and mid-elevations lakes (n = 2) were most markedly impacted by the socialist period of land use regime; lakes from the southern Carpathians (n = 2) were more impacted in the traditional period (transhumance pastoral activities), whereas those from the north (n = 3) in the socialist and post-socialist periods (summer pastoralism). Results from our study show a continuous anthropogenic impact during the entire period considered, even in remote mountain areas. This suggests that a temporal frame of 100–150 years is too short to meaningfully register the reference conditions of these lakes. Furthermore, a predominantly natural state may not have existed for centuries in this region.     

A method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations in boreal headwater streams

Large-scale forestry operations, like clear-cutting, may impair surface water quality if not done with environmental considerations in mind. Catchment and country level estimates of nutrient loads from forestry are generally based on specific export values, i.e., changes in annual exports due to the implemented forestry operations expressed in kg ha⁻¹. We introduce here a specific concentration approach as a method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations and export in headwater streams. This new method is potentially a more dynamic and flexible tool to estimate nutrient loads caused by forestry, because variation in annual runoff can be taken into account in load assessments. We combined water quality data from eight boreal headwater catchment pairs located in Finland and Sweden, where the effect of clear-cutting on stream water quality has been studied experimentally. Statistically significant specific concentration values could be produced for total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and phosphate. The significant increases in the concentrations of these nutrients occurred between 2 and 6 years after clear-cutting. Significant specific concentration values could not be produced for total phosphorus and total organic carbon with the whole dataset, although in some single studies significant increases in their concentrations after clear-cutting were observed. The presented method enables taking into account variation in runoff, temporal dynamics of effects, and the proportional size of the treated area in load calculations. The number of existing studies considering large site-specific variation in responses to clear-cutting is small, and therefore further empirical studies are needed to improve predictive capabilities of the specific concentration values.     

Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Screening risk areas for sediment and phosphorus losses to improve placement of mitigation measures

Identification of vulnerable arable areas to phosphorus (P) losses is needed to effectively implement mitigation measures. Indicators for source (soil test P, STP), potential mobilization by erosion (soil dispersion), and transport (unit-stream power length-slope, LS) risks were used to screen the vulnerability to suspended solids (SS) and P losses in two contrasting catchments regarding topography, soil textural distribution, and STP. Soils in the first catchment ranged from loamy sand to clay loam, while clay soils were dominant in the second catchment. Long-term SS and total P losses were higher in the second catchment in spite of significantly lower topsoil STP. A higher proportion of areas in the second catchment were identified with higher risk due to the significantly higher risk of overland flow generation (LS) and a significantly higher mobilization risk in the soil dispersion laboratory tests. A simple screening method was presented to improve the placement of mitigation measures.