耕作农场决策的环境和经济影响:一种综合建模方法

本文研究了耕作农场中自然环境和人类起源系统的相互依赖关系.动态模拟模型的方法论起源于环境系统分析和微型模拟的建模传统.这个模型复制了自然流(例如能源、原料、排放、产品)、作为决策者的农场主以及影响农场的结构状况之间的相互连接.运行模型的目的是为了回答:价格、津贴、农场主的环境观及其生产配置选择的能力的差别对盈利和环境的影响(例如温室气体的影响、富营养化、酸化和能源消耗)是什么?模型模拟的结果说明,例如,就经济表现而言,农场主可以从两个相对可持续的战略中选择,或者专注于有机生产(从而从更高津贴和输出价格中受益),或者专注于常规的耕作并使用杀虫剂和化肥(从而通过大量生产获益).关于环境影响,由于分配肥料使用的困难,因此在有机农业和常规农业之间没有明确的区别.这个发现本质上是和系统边界的选择相关的,文章对于系统边界也作了彻底充分的讨论.     

Accounting for large-scale factors in the study of understory vegetation using a conditional logistic model

Local-scale and large-scale factors can affect the presence of a species of understory vegetation in the forest. Local-scale factors may be the influence of surrounding trees, while climate and latitude are typically considered large-scale factors. A model for the presence of a species needs to take into account both scales. A conditional logistic model is proposed for those studies where only the local-scale factors are of interest and that avoids estimating the large-scale parameters. Conditioning is carried out by the number of quadrats in the plot where the vegetation is found. As the latter is a sufficient statistic for the large-scale factors, a model free from these parameters is obtained. Data gathered in the permanent sample plots of the 1985–1986 National Forest Inventory of Finland is used for illustration, where the local-scale factor of interest is the influence of the trees, quantified by an index based on the size and location of the trees. The model fitted to Vaccinium vitis-idaea showed a significant and positive influence of Scots pine on the presence of this species, while for Calamagrostis arundinacea, a decrease in the odds ratio was observed due to the influence of Norway spruce.     

Detection and mapping of water pollution variation in the Nile Delta using multivariate clustering and GIS techniques

The limited water resources of Egypt lead to widespread water-stress. Consequently, the use of marginal water sources, such as agricultural drainage waters, provides one of the national feasible solutions to the problem. However, the marginal quality of the drainage waters may restrict their use.The objective of this research is to develop a tool for planning and managing the reuse of agricultural drainage water for irrigation in the Nile Delta. This is achieved by classifying the pollution levels of drainage water into several categories using a statistical clustering approach that may ensure simple but accurate information about the pollution levels and water characteristics at any point within the drainage system.The derived clusters are then visualized by using a Geographical Information System (GIS) to draw thematic maps based on the entire Nile Delta, thus making GIS as a decision support system. The obtained maps may assist the decision makers in managing and controlling pollution in the Nile Delta regions. The clustering process also provides an effective overview of those spots in the Nile Delta where intensified monitoring activities are required. Consequently, the obtained results make a major contribution to the assessment and redesign of the Egyptian national water quality monitoring network.     

An analysis of China’s investment in the hydropower sector in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region

The Mekong River’s natural resources offer large benefits to its populations, but it also attracts the interest of foreign investors. Recently, Chinese firms, banks and government bodies have increasingly invested in large hydropower projects in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region. Due to China’s rapid economic growth, its rapid industrialisation and its limited domestic natural resources, the Chinese government has issued the ‘Going Out Strategy’ which promotes investments in overseas natural resources like water and energy resources. In search for climate-friendly low-carbon energy, cheap electricity and access to a growing market, Chinese institutions turn to Southeast Asia where Chinese institutions are currently involved in more than 50 on-going large hydropower projects as contractors, investors, regulators and financiers. These Chinese institutions have influence on environmental and social practices as well as on diplomatic and trade relations in the host countries. Currently, there are major gaps in understanding who is engaged, why, how and with what impacts. This paper therefore aims to assess the motives, actors, beneficiaries and the direct and indirect impacts of China’s investment in large hydropower projects in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region. The authors use the ‘Rising Powers Framework’ to assess these issues, which is an adapted version of the Asian Drivers Framework.     

Evolving metacommunities: toward an evolutionary perspective on metacommunities

The metacommunity framework predicts that local coexistence depends on the outcome of local species interactions and regional migration. In analogous fashion, spatial structure among populations can shape species interactions through evolutionary mechanisms. Yet, most metacommunity theories assume that populations do not evolve. Here, we evaluate how evolution shapes local species coexistence and exclusion within the multiscale and multispecies context embodied by the metacommunity framework. In general, coexistence in joint ecological-evolutionary models requires low to intermediate dispersal rates that can promote maintenance of both regional species and genetic diversity. These conditions support a set of key mechanisms that modify patterns of species coexistence including local adaptation, gene storage effects, genetic rescue effects, spatial genetic subsidies, and metacommunity evolution. Multispecies extensions indicate that correlated selection can further alter the outcome of interspecific interactions depending on the magnitude and direction of correlations and shape of fitness trade-offs. We suggest that an evolving metacommunity perspective has the potential to generate novel predictions about community structure and function by incorporating the genetic and species diversity that characterize natural communities. In adopting such a perspective, we seek to facilitate understanding about the interactions between evolutionary and metacommunity dynamics.     

COVID-19 pandemic: environmental and social factors influencing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in São Paulo,Brazil

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 14 million people worldwide so far. Brazil is currently the second leading country in number of...     

人工神经网络在沿海区域环境复杂系统预测中的应用

针对复杂系统的非线性特征，分析了应用人工神经网络技术实现可持续发展复杂系统预测的可能性，并以上海市和崇明县为例建立沿海区域预测模型，取得了较好的预测结果，为可持续发展复杂系统的预测研究探索了一种新的可能方法。     

The growth-predation risk trade-off under a growing gape-limited predation threat

Growth is a critical ecological trait because it can determine population demography, evolution, and community interactions. Predation risk frequently induces decreased foraging and slow growth in prey. However, such strategies may not always be favored when prey can outgrow a predator's hunting ability. At the same time, a growing gape-limited predator broadens its hunting ability through time by expanding its gape and thereby creates a moving size refuge for susceptible prey. Here, I explore the ramifications of growing gape-limited predators for adaptive prey growth. A discrete demographic model for optimal foraging/growth strategies was derived under the realistic scenario of gape-limited and gape-unconstrained predation threats. Analytic and numerical results demonstrate a novel fitness minimum just above the growth rate of the gape-limited predator. This local fitness minimum separates a slow growth strategy that forages infrequently and accumulates low but constant predation risk from a fast growth strategy that forages frequently and experiences a high early predation risk in return for lower future predation risk and enhanced fecundity. Slow strategies generally were advantageous in communities dominated by gape-unconstrained predators whereas fast strategies were advantageous in gape-limited predator communities. Results were sensitive to the assumed relationships between prey size and fecundity and between prey growth and predation risk. Predator growth increased the parameter space favoring fast prey strategies. The model makes the testable predictions that prey should not grow at the same rate as their gape-limited predator and generally should grow faster than the fastest growing gape-limited predator. By focusing on predator constraints on prey capture, these results integrate the ecological and evolutionary implications of prey growth in diverse predator communities and offer an explanation for empirical growth patterns previously viewed to be anomalies.     

Sources of anthropogenic platinum-group elements (PGE): Automotive catalysts versus pge-processing industries

Soil samples from the area of Hanau (Hessen, Germany) were analyzed for anthropogenic platinum-group elements (PGE). The results confirm the existence of two different sources for anthropogenic PGE: 1. automotive catalysts, and 2. PGE-processing plants. Both sources emit qualitatively and quantitatively different PGE spectra and PGE interelemental ratios (especially the Pt/Rh ratio). Elevated PGE values which are due to automotive catalysts are restricted to a narrow-range along roadside soil, whereas those due to PGE-processing plants display a large-area dispersion. The emitted PGE-containing particles in the case of automotive catalysts are subject to transport by wind and water, whereas those from PGE-processing plants are preferably transported by wind. This points to a different aerodynamic particle size. Pt, Pd, and Rh concentrations along motorways are dependent on the amount of traffic and the driving characteristics.     

Assessment of trace metal contamination in a historical freshwater canal (Buckingham Canal), Chennai, India

The present study was done to assess the sources and the major processes controlling the trace metal distribution in sediments of Buckingham Canal. Based on the observed geochemical variations, the sediments are grouped as South Buckingham Canal and North Buckingham Canal sediments (SBC and NBC, respectively). SBC sediments show enrichment in Fe, Ti, Mn, Cr, V, Mo, and As concentrations, while NBC sediments show enrichment in Sn, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Hg. The calculated Chemical Index of Alteration and Chemical Index of Weathering values for all the sediments are relatively higher than the North American Shale Composite and Upper Continental Crust but similar to Post-Archaean Average Shale, and suggest a source area with moderate weathering. Overall, SBC sediments are highly enriched in Mo, Zn, Cu, and Hg (geoaccumulation index (I_geo) class 4–6), whereas NBC sediments are enriched in Sn, Cu, Zn, and Hg (I_geo class 4–6). Cu, Ni, and Cr show higher than Effects-Range Median values and hence the biological adverse effect of these metals is 20%; Zn, which accounts for 50%, in the NBC sediments, has a more biological adverse effect than other metals found in these sediments. The calculated I_geo, Enrichment Factor, and Contamination Factor values indicate that Mo, Hg, Sn, Cu, and Zn are highly enriched in the Buckingham Canal sediments, suggesting the rapid urban and industrial development of Chennai Metropolitan City have negatively influenced on the surrounding aquatic ecosystem.