Grey Box and Component Models to Forecast Ozone Episodes: A Comparison Study

For the purpose of short-term forecasting of high ozone concentration episodes stochastic models have been suggested and developed in the literature. The present paper compares the quality of forecasts produced by a grey box and a component time-series model. The summer ozone patterns for three European urban areas (two continental and one mediterranean) are processed. By means of forecast performance indices according to EC and WHO guidelines, the following features of the models could be found: The grey box model is highly adaptive and produces forecasts with low error variance that increases with the time horizon of forecast. The component model is more 'stiff' that results in a higher forecast-error variance and poorer adaption in detail. The forecast horizon, however, could be enlarged with this model. The accuracy of predicting threshold exceedance is similar for both models. This can be understood from the assumption of a cyclical time development of ozone that was made for both models.     

Occurrence of psychoactive compounds and their metabolites in groundwater downgradient of a decommissioned sewage farm in Berlin (Germany)

Purpose

Psychoactive compounds??meprobamate, pyrithyldione, primidone, and its metabolites, phenobarbital, and phenylethylmalonamide??were detected in groundwater within the catchment area of a drinking water treatment plant located downgradient of a former sewage farm in Berlin, Germany. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of the psychoactive compounds in anoxic groundwater and to assess the risk of drinking water contamination. Groundwater age was determined to achieve a better understanding of present hydrogeological conditions.

Methods

A large number of observation and production wells were sampled. Samples were analyzed using solid-phase extraction and ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography?Ctandem mass spectrometry. Groundwater age was estimated using the helium?Ctritium (³He?C³H) dating method.

Results

Concentrations of psychoactive compounds up to 1???g/L were encountered in the contamination plume. Generally, concentrations of phenobarbital and meprobamate were the highest. Elevated concentrations of the analytes were also detected in raw water from abstraction wells located approximately 2.5?km downgradient of the former sewage farm. Concentrations in the final drinking water were below the limit of quantification owing to dilution. The age of shallow groundwater samples ranged from years to a decade, whereas groundwater was up to four decades old at 40?m below ground. Concentrations of the compounds increased with groundwater age.

Conclusions

Elevated concentrations of psychoactive drugs indicate a strong persistence of these compounds in the environment under anoxic aquifer conditions. Results suggest that the heritage of sewage irrigation will affect raw water quality in the area for decades. Therefore, further monitoring of raw and final drinking water is recommended to ensure that contaminant concentrations remain below the health-based precautionary value.     

Truncated Lévy flights and agenda-based mobility are useful for the assessment of personal human exposure

Receptor-oriented approaches can assess the individual-specific exposure to air pollution. In such an individual-based model we analyse the impact of human mobility to the personal exposure that is perceived by individuals simulated in an exemplified urban area. The mobility models comprise random walk (reference point mobility, RPM), truncated Lévy flights (TLF), and agenda-based walk (RPMA). We describe and review the general concepts and provide an inter-comparison of these concepts. Stationary and ergodic behaviour are explained and applied as well as performance criteria for a comparative evaluation of the investigated algorithms. We find that none of the studied algorithm results in purely random trajectories. TLF and RPMA prove to be suitable for human mobility modelling, because they provide conditions for very individual-specific trajectories and exposure. Suggesting these models we demonstrate the plausibility of their results for exposure to air-borne benzene and the combined exposure to benzene and nonane.     

Determination of lindane leachability in soil-biosolid systems and its bioavailability in wheat plants

The leachability of lindane from different biosolid amended soils was determined and compared to its bioavailability. Sand, soil, and a mixture of soil-sand (1:1 w/w) were spiked with lindane, blended with different amounts of biosolids, and subjected to a leaching process with water that lasted for 1-28 d. This procedure is in accordance with ISO/TS 21268-1: 2007. After these batch tests, lindane was extracted from the leachates using three different solvent-free microextraction techniques, including solid phase microextraction (SPME), stir-bar sorptive extraction (SBSE), and silicone rod extraction (SRE). The amount of lindane was determined with thermal desorption and gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The efficiencies of the three microextraction techniques were statistically different, and the efficiency could be related to the amount of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) in each extraction device. However, all of the techniques provide data that shows that the leachability of lindane is dependent on the amount of organic matter contained in the matrix.The results of the lindane leachability assay were compared to the bioavailability of lindane, which was determined by measuring the amount of lindane that accumulated in the roots of wheat plants grown in similar soil-biosolid systems.It was confirmed that the amount of organic matter in the matrix is a determining factor for lindane immobilization. The presence of biosolids decreases the mobility of lindane in all of the systems under study. Similarly, increasing biosolid concentrations in the soil significantly decreased the bioavailability of lindane and, consequently, plant absorption.The good correlation (R² = 0.997) between the leachability of lindane from the matrix and plant absorption of lindane indicates that the proposed biomimetic methodology can predict the bioavailability of lindane in a time period as short as 7 d.The results of this work confirm that amending contaminated soils with biosolids is beneficial for immobilizing lindane and helps prevent the percolation of lindane through the soil profile and into groundwater.     

Behaviour and redox sensitivity of pharmaceutical residues during bank filtration - Investigation of residues of phenazone-type analgesics

The behaviour of residues of phenazone-type pharmaceuticals during bank filtration was investigated at a field site in Berlin, Germany, where bank-filtered water is used for drinking water production. The concentrations of the pharmaceutical residues in the shallow, young bank filtrate (travel times相似文献   

Displaced honey bees perform optimal scale-free search flights

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are regularly faced with the task of navigating back to their hives from remote food sources. They have evolved several methods to do this, including compass-directed "vector" flights and the use of landmarks. If these hive-centered mechanisms are disrupted, bees revert to searching for the hive, but the nature and efficiency of their searching strategy have hitherto been unknown. We used harmonic radar to record the flight paths of honey bees that were searching for their hives. Our subsequent analysis of these paths revealed that they can be represented by a series of straight line segments that have a scale-free, Lévy distribution with an inverse-square-law tail. We show that these results, combined with the "no preferred direction" characteristic of the segments, demonstrate that the bees were flying an optimal search pattern. Lévy movements have already been identified in a number of other animals. Our results are the best reported example where the movements are mostly attributable to the adoption of an optimal, scale-free searching strategy.     

Economic Impacts of Changes in Fish Population Dynamics: The Role of the Fishermen’s Harvesting Strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a coupled stock size–hydrography-based fishing strategy, which attempts to maximize returns from fishing over a given number of fishing periods. Results show that if the fishing strategy is based on a short optimization period of only two fishing periods, changes in population dynamics have a direct influence on the returns from fishing due to the strong pressure on the stocks applied by the fisheries. If the strategy is based on a longer optimization period, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth, which improves the economic performance of the fisheries. However, in that case, the relationship between population dynamics and fishing activities becomes less clear, as even a reduction of the carrying capacities of the two species allows for an increase in the amount of fish landed without causing a stock collapse due to an increased efficiency of fleet utilization. The simulations indicate that management considerations and the time horizon of the fishing strategy dominate the influence of altered population dynamics on the development of the stocks considered in the model.