Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.     

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem services in a transhumance social-ecological network

The ecosystem services framework is receiving increasing attention in the fields of policy and research. The assessment of human attitudes and perceptions regarding ecosystem services has been proposed as a promising tool for addressing complex problems associated with environmental change, particularly in the context of cultural landscapes. Transhumance is not only a farming practice responsible for shaping cultural landscapes but also an adaptive strategy based on mobility that may represent a useful approach to overcoming the growing challenges posed by accelerated environmental change. A socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem services associated with the Conquense Drove Road, one of the major transhumant networks still in use in Mediterranean Spain, was conducted via the distribution of questionnaires to 416 local residents and visitors to capture their perceptions regarding the importance of 34 ecosystem services (10 provisioning, 12 regulating, and 12 cultural) for both social and personal well-being. Overall, the ecosystem services considered to be the most important for social well-being were fire prevention, air purification and livestock. Most of the ecosystem services in question were perceived as declining, with the exception of those associated with recreation, scientific knowledge and environmental education. This study revealed that perceptions regarding the value of ecosystem services differed among respondents, depending on their age, place of origin and gender. Several methodological issues, as well as the implications of socio-cultural valuation for policy making, are also discussed here.     

Industrial pollution does not cause an increased incidence of nephropathies in the bank vole

Studies in the vicinities of copper smelters and in undisturbed areas of the Middle Urals have been performed to evaluate the effect of industrial pollution with heavy metals on macro- and micromorphological parameters of kidneys (weight, weight index, the spectrum and frequency of histopathologies) in the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus Schreber, 1780) and on the accumulation of Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in this organ. It has been found that the kidneys of voles from polluted areas accumulate considerable amounts of heavy metals, with their concentrations increasing with age and/or sexual maturation. The kidney weight, index, and the frequency and severity of the majority of observed nephropathies also increase upon change in the reproductive-age status of animals. These parameters show no dependence on the degree of industrial pollution: at individual level, none of the heavy metals accumulated in the kidneys has produced any effect on the frequency and severity of nephropathies. These results contradict the prevailing opinion that toxicants play the determinant role in the development of nephropathies in small mammals inhabiting polluted areas. Therefore, the causes of nephropathies should be sought among other factors, not related to pollution.     

The structure of bumblebee communities (Hymenoptera,Apidae, Bombus spp.) in some ecosystems of Kunashir Island and Southern Sakhalin (Russian Far East)

The structure of bumblebee communities has been studied in some ecosystems of Kunashir Island and Southern Sakhalin. The island taxocenes include five to eight bumblebee species. Bombus hypnorum is dominant in the majority of habitats. In geothermal areas near hot springs on Kunashir, the families of this species develop more rapidly than in areas without geothermal heating.     

Correlations between the contents of volatile compounds in needle samples from Scots pine populations of southern Siberia

Intrapopulation diversity and correlations of 30 volatile compounds in needles have been studied in Scots pine populations of southern Siberia. Significant differences between populations have been revealed in the correlation pattern of relative terpenoid contents in needle samples. Stable combinations of closely associated mono- and sesquiterpenes and specific features of the general pattern of correlations between relevant characters have been determined.     

The holocene dynamics of vegetation and environmental conditions on the eastern slope of the Northern Urals

Consideration is given to changes in the vegetation and climatic conditions on the eastern slope of the Northern Urals in the second half of the Holocene as reconstructed on the basis of integrated palynological, botanical, paleocarpological, and radiocarbon analysis of material from a peat bog section in the floodplain of the Loz’va River. The results show that the northern taiga zone of the study region in the period between approximately 5000 and 700 years BP was occupied by forests of southern taiga facies, as the climate was significantly warmer than it is today.     

The WTO,ecology, and Russia: The time to make decisions

The relationship between the principle of free trade and nature conservation is one of the most acute and multifaceted problems in international business. The diversity of WTO activities implies the necessity of interdisciplinary studies utilizing the expertise and experience of specialists in international law and ecologists. In this paper, provisions of the WTO set of agreements and procedures for dispute settlement within the WTO framework are considered as applied to environmental protection.     

Variation in the seed progeny of smooth brome grass,Bromus inermis Leyss., under conditions of chronic irradiation in the zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace

Long-term studies have been performed on the seed progeny of B. inermis from test plots established along the radioactive contamination gradient in the zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT), where dose loads on maternal plants and embryos of seeds from chronically irradiated cenopopulations (with natural background radiation taken into account) exceed control values by factors of 2 to 107. Interannual and individual variation in the viability, mutability, and radiosensitivity of the seed progeny has been revealed. Against the background of high interpopulation variation in test parameters in the EURT zone, weather conditions appear to have no significant effect on seed quality, while such effects are appreciable in background cenopopulations. It has been shown that a positive correlation exist between the initial viability of the seed progeny and their radioresistance. Chronic irradiation in a wide dose range induces an increased frequency of different mutations and morphological modifications. The contents of low-molecular antioxidants in seedlings from impact cenopopulations proved to be higher than in the background sample. The results obtained characterize the potential of protective and restorative mechanisms acquired in the course of evolution that allow plants to survive in the changing environment under exposure to technogenic stress.