Strike-induced chemosensory searching is absent in the cordylid lizard,Cordylus cordylus,a scleroglossan ambush forager

Summary Strike-induced chemosensory searching (SICS) was not detected experimentally in the cordylid lizard,Cordylus cordylus. Both components of SICS, a post-strike elevation in tongue-flick rate (PETF) and searching movements for attacked and released prey, were absent. The findings are consistent with previous data showing that PETF and/or SICS are lacking in all lizard families yet studied that forage primarily by ambush, but are present in actively foraging scleroglossan families and the herbivorous iguanian family Iguanidae. It is suggested that foraging behavior is a primary determinant of the presence or absence of SICS in lizards. Nevertheless, in most families in the two major clades, Iguania and Scleroglossa, the plesiomorphic foraging mode is retained. The findings agree with the prediction that SICS is absent in families lacking lingually mediated prey chemical discrimination (PCD), presumably due to selection against movement by ambush foragers that avoid being detected by either prey or predators because they remain motionless. Although PETF and SICS were absent, labial-licking and lingual movements similar to those observed after swallowing increased after biting prey, suggesting that the functions of these lingual movements may have been related to grooming. Locomotory movements did not increase following biting and appeared to represent avoidance of the experimenter.     

Bayesian Joint Estimation of Binary Outcome and Time-to-event Data: Effects of Leaf Quality on Pupal Survival and Time-to-Emergence in the Winter Moth

Plant–herbivore interactions are complex and affect herbivore fitness components and life history traits in many different ways. In this paper, we present results from an experiment studying the effects of leaf quality on pupal survival and duration of pupation (as measured by time-to-emergence) in the winter moth. Because only surviving pupae are at risk of emerging, analysis of time-to-emergence should exclude the dead pupae. However, due to right censoring, the survival status could not be determined for each individual. This failure to determine the group of moths at risk of emerging a priori motivated the development of a joint model of both survival probability and time-to-emergence. We formulate the model in a Bayesian framework and apply Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) to obtain posterior distributions. Time-to-emergence is modeled by a Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model where only the surviving pupae are at risk of emergence. Probability of pupal survival was modeled by a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM). The censored individuals were included in the analysis as a missing value in the GLMM. The GLMM then generated prior distributions of survival probabilties—and thus of the probability of being at risk of emergence—for these 19 individuals, conditional on the model parameters. The CPH model was formulated as a count process and the binary frailty was incorporated as a zero-inflated Poisson model. Zeros in this model represent the non-survivors. Leaf quality did not appear to influence time-to-emergence. Pupal survival was affected in a complex and unexpected way showing opposite effects in males and females. We also explored the robustness of our model against increased levels of censoring. While the degree of censoring was low in our study (< 1%), we artificially increased it to 67%. Although further study is required to study the generality of these results in a theoretical framework, our explorations suggest that the newly proposed technique may be widely applicable in a variety of situations where the identification of the at risk population cannot be done in a straightforward way. Received: January 2005 / Revised: June 2005     

Divided destinies: group choice by female savannah baboons during social group fission

Group living provides benefits to individuals while imposing costs on them. In species that live in permanent social groups, group division provides the only opportunity for nondispersing individuals to change their group membership and improve their benefit to cost ratio. We examined group choice by 81 adult female savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) during four fission events. We measured how each female’s group choice was affected by several factors: the presence of her maternal kin, paternal kin, age peers, and close social partners, her average kinship to groupmates, and her potential for improved dominance rank. Maternal kin, paternal kin, and close social partners influenced group choice by some females, but the relative importance of these factors varied across fissions. Age peers other than paternal kin had no effect on group choice, and average kinship to all groupmates had the same effect on group choice as did maternal kin alone. Most females were subordinate to fewer females after fissions than before, but status improvement did not drive female group choice; females often preferred to remain with social superiors who were their close maternal kin, rather than improving their own social ranks. We suggest that during permanent group fissions, female baboons prefer to remain with close maternal kin if those are abundant enough to influence their fitness; if they have too few close maternal kin then females prefer to remain with close paternal kin, and social bonds with nonkin might also become influential. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Monitoring nutrient transport in large rivers

The problem of estimating nutrient transport in large rivers and the uncertainty of such load estimates was studied both empirically and theoretically. In the empirical part of the study, time series of data from the Rhine, Meuse, Vistula and Oder Rivers were examined. The results of this data analysis justify the use of linear interpolation to estimate concentrations prevailing between sampling occasions. A special study of the spatial variation of concentrations within different cross-sections of the Vistula river showed that such variation can contribute substantially to the uncertainty of load estimates. In general, however, sampling at one point in the cross-section did not result in biased load estimates. In the theoretical part of the study, simple ARMA (autoregressive-moving average) models were used to derive generally applicable formulas for the expected mean square error of load estimates based on serially dependent concentration data. These formulas were then used to estimate the uncertainty of calculated nutrient loads in the Rhine and the Vistula, respectively.     

Carbon Tetrachloride Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

Accurate estimates of stressor levels in unsampled streams would provide valuable information for managing these resources over large regions. Spatial interpolation of stream characteristics have rarely been attempted, partly because defining separation distances between distinct stream samples is not straightforward. That is, conventional Eulerian definitions of separation distance may not apply to stream networks where information flows along distinct paths. A two-stage model for estimating stressor levels in unsampled streams is presented. Mean characteristics within streams are predicted usign a generalized additive model and residual variation is estimated using a conventional application of spatial statistics. The model is developed and tested using stream survey data collected in the state of Maryland, USA. Model efficiency is compared for three stream variables (nitrate concentration, sulfate concentration, and epifaunal substrate score) known to be associated with biological impairments in streams. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation in the residual variation improved model R2 from 0.71 to 0.81 for nitrate, from 0.29 to 0.63 for sulfate, and from 0.21 to 0.31 for epifaunal substrate score.     

Synthesis of HNO3 from Organic Matter and its Influence on Nutrient Replenishment in Forest Soils

Chemical analyses during a decade of bulk precipitation, throughfall, humus water and soil water in forest plots ranging from sand to silt of Pleistocene origin in Flanders (N-Belgium) prove that previous and present weathering is predominantly due to synthesis of HNO3 from soil organic matter. The HNO3 reacts with silicates and possibly PO4(3-) species, releasing Al, Fe, nutrient base cations and H2PO4-, and is transformed into NO3-. In all soils solubilized Al3+ is predominantly associated with NO3- and with some organic bases in the coarse-textured soils with undisturbed or previously plowed spodic B horizon. The amounts of ions leached, especially Al3+ and NO3-, are much higher in the sandy than in the silty soils as a result of a stronger neutralization of acidity in the silty soils. Nutrients, leached from the soil, have to be replenished in some way for a sustained forest growth. N- and S-species must come from the atmosphere. Basic cations and P-species have to be supplied out of the solid phase. The concentrations of NO3- in the soil water show that the liberation of these elements from the solid phase is performed by HNO3. Especially in the coarse-textured soils the need for NO3- is high. Therefore, instead of being a real hazard for the forest ecological system, supplementary addition of HNO3 or NH3 can be beneficial.     

The importance of considering spatial attributes in evaluating estuarine habitat condition: the South Carolina experience

The South Carolina Estuarine and Coastal Assessment Program (SCECAP) was initiated in 1999 to assess the condition of the state's coastal habitats using multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Sampling was subsequently expanded to include components required for the National Coastal Assessment (Coastal 2000) Program. Habitats are classified as either tidal creeks (<#60; 100 meters in width) or larger open water bodies. Approximately 30 sites are sampled within each habitat during the summer months using a probability-based random sampling design. Results obtained from the first two years of sampling documented significant differences in several water quality parameters (DO, salinity, pH, turbidity, fecal coliform bacteria, total nitrogen, TKN, total phosphorus) and biological measures (chlorophyll-a, finfish and crustacean abundance and biomass and a number of benthic species) between the tidal creek and open water habitats. These differences highlight the value of partitioning shallow water habitats separately from the larger open water bodies traditionally sampled in estuarine monitoring programs, especially since tidal creeks serve as critical nursery areas for many species. Based on the differences observed, there is a clear need to identify different physical and biological thresholds for evaluating the condition of each habitat type.     

1,4-Dichlorobenzene Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on 1,4-dichlorobenzene was carried out for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1996). Data from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area were collected and evaluated on effects and environmental concentrations. Risk is indicated by the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) to predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 17 data for fish, 9 data for invertebrates and 7 data for algae were evaluated. Acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a final PNEC value of 20 microg/l. Recent monitoring data indicate that 1,4-dichlorobenzene levels in coastal waters and estuaries are below the determination limit of 0.1 microg/l used in monitoring programs. The worst case value recorded in river water is below 0.45 microg/l. Using these values, calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give safety margins of about 40-200, taking no account of dilution in the sea. Environmental fate and bioaccumulation data indicate that current use of 1,4-dichlorobenzene poses no risk to the aquatic environment.     

Global water crisis: the major issue of the 21st century,a growing and explosive problem

The authors explore what is considered to be the emerging issue of the 21st century, shortages of water. It is expected that the Netherlands, which is entirely dependent on water from other countries, will be in an extremely vulnerable position. The quantity of fresh water is limited. Contamination of water reduces water quality and availability. Many World Bank projects focus on management of the water supply for sanitation, irrigation, hydroelectric power, and construction of dikes in order to prevent flooding. The World Bank concludes that everyone worldwide must acknowledge that fresh water is a scarce natural resource. The Action Plan, Agenda 21, of the UN Rio Conference emphasized the importance of the widespread shortage, gradual destruction, and increased pollution of fresh water reserves. The four major world problems with fresh water are 1) shortages of renewable supplies, 2) unequal distribution of supplies, 3) problems of water quality and health, and 4) disastrous effects of unrestrained construction of dams and reservoirs. Only 2.5% of the total amount of water on earth is fresh water, of which 69.4% is in the form of ice, snow, or permafrost and most of the remainder is ground water. Fresh water in lakes and rivers is only about 1% of fresh water available on earth. Most of the precipitation that falls on land every year is lost through evaporation. 45,000 sq. km is the absolute maximum available annually. Distribution of water among industry, agriculture, and households varies by country. Arid regions constitute about 33% of Europe, 60% of Asia, 85% of Africa, and most of Australia and western North America. 14% of countries are at or under the poverty line of water availability, 37% have dangerously dry conditions, 14% have average levels, and 35% have ample supplies. Examples of water management are given for the Amazon River, the Euphrates and Tigris, the Aral Sea, and the Rhine River Basin. It is estimated that the world supply of fresh water would meet the needs of 4.5-9.0 billion people.     

Mapping institutional work as a method for local strategy; learning from boom/bust dynamics in the Canadian west

We investigate the potential of mapping institutional work in communities as a method for both analyzing and formulating local development strategy. Twelve Canadian case communities experiencing dramatic ups and downs (‘boom and bust towns’) serve as the empirical base. Analytically, we find that institutional work for strategy takes on very diverse forms, some of them not described in the literature, and further identify a special class of institutional work associated with leadership. Normatively, we demonstrate that mapping institutional work can be a structured process of self-reflection underpinning strategy. For the Canadian case study, we find that lack of local autonomy is often a stumbling block for strategy. More broadly, we conclude that mapping institutional work for strategy works best when governance evolutions are grasped as context, and when strategy itself is understood in its complex, multifaceted nature: a narrative, a way of linking institutions, and an institution in itself.