Precaution and the Methodological Status of Scientific (Un)certainty

An effective application of thePrecautionary Principle (PP) hinges on thestipulation that, ``a lack of scientificcertainty shall not be used as a reason forpostponing measures.' The practicalconsequences of this expression are presentlynot clear enough in most contexts of use toenable constructive communication and thereforethe PP is not sufficiently operational now. Apragmatic and fundamental methodology forunderstanding scientific (un)certainty indifferent practical contexts needs to be put inplace to create a communicative basis foreffective precaution. Lack of clarity aboutproblem definition and problem ownershipcreates artificial controversies that willobstruct a precautionary approach. Given thefact that different practical contexts ofscientific (un)certainty exist, it may seemfrom one context as if no precaution iswarranted whereas concerns from anotherrelevant context may suggest otherwise.Therefore, an integrative methodologicalframework for communicating about scientific(un)certainty is sorely needed in internationalpolicy-making. By putting a focus on therelevance of specified research questions forthe objective of taking precaution, acommunicative methodology may be adopted thatis dedicated to the design properties of asustainable future. Precaution cannot beoperationalized without a methodological basisthat allows for effective transparency andevades the stalemates of artificialcontroversy. Existing debate methodologies haveso far not managed to accommodate thesepressing demands.     

The Effects of Changing Land Cover on Streamflow Simulation in Puerto Rico

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953‐2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.     

From Framework to Action: The DESIRE Approach to Combat Desertification

It has become increasingly clear that desertification can only be tackled through a multi-disciplinary approach that not only involves scientists but also stakeholders. In the DESIRE project such an approach was taken. As a first step, a conceptual framework was developed in which the factors and processes that may lead to land degradation and desertification were described. Many of these factors do not work independently, but can reinforce or weaken one another, and to illustrate these relationships sustainable management and policy feedback loops were included. This conceptual framework can be applied globally, but can also be made site-specific to take into account that each study site has a unique combination of bio-physical, socio-economic and political conditions. Once the conceptual framework was defined, a methodological framework was developed in which the methodological steps taken in the DESIRE approach were listed and their logic and sequence were explained. The last step was to develop a concrete working plan to put the project into action, involving stakeholders throughout the process. This series of steps, in full or in part, offers explicit guidance for other organizations or projects that aim to reduce land degradation and desertification.     

腐殖酸可降低纳米银的水生生物毒性

本文作者主要研究了腐殖酸对聚乙烯吡咯烷酮包覆的纳米银颗粒(polyvinylpyrrolidone-coated AgNPs)毒性的影响，受试生物涵盖了水生系统不同的营养级别，包括藻类(Raphidocelis subcapitata)、水蚤类(Chydorus sphaericus)以及淡水鱼类(Danio rerio)。结果显示，腐殖酸可降低AgNPs对本研究中所有水生生物的毒性，并具有明显的剂量效应关系。原因为：1）腐殖酸使AgNPs表面带有更多负电荷，这阻碍了AgNPs与藻细胞的接触，使毒性降低；2）腐殖酸抑制了AgNPs中Ag⁺的溶出，而本研究显示自由Ag⁺的毒性高于团聚的纳米银颗粒。
精选自Zhuang Wang, Joris T.K. Quik, Lan Song, Evert-Jan Van Den Brandhof, Marja Wouterse and Willie J.G.M. Peijnenburg. Humic substances alleviate the aquatic toxicity of polyvinylpyrrolidone-coated silver nanoparticles to organisms of different trophic levels. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 6, pages 1239–1245, June 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.2936
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.2936/full
     

Component-specific toxic concerns of the inhalable fraction of urban road dust

Continuous global urbanisation causes an ever-growing ecological footprint of pollution. Road dust (RD), one of these pollutants, poses a health concern due to carcinogenic and toxic components potentially present in the micron-sized fractions. The literature reports on the concentrations of trace, toxic metals and metalloids present in RD (Hooker and Nathanail in Chem Geol 226:340–351, 2006), but the literature on its molecular composition is limited. Recent reports on the bioaccessibility of platinum group metals are also reported (Colombo et al. in Chem Geol 226:340–351, 2008). In vitro and animal toxicological studies confirmed that the chemical composition of inhaled particles plays a major role in its toxic, genotoxic and carcinogenic mechanisms, but the component-specific toxic effects are still not understood. Particle-bound airborne transition metals can also lead to the production of reactive oxygen species in lung tissue; a special concern amongst particularly susceptible cohorts (children and elderly). The characterisation of the molecular composition of the fine fraction is evidently of importance for public health. During a pilot study, partially characterised size-fractioned RD samples (Barrett et al. in Eviron Sci Technol 44:2940–2946, 2010) were analysed for their elemental concentration using X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. In addition, separately dispersed particles (200 particles per size fraction) were analysed individually by means of computer-controlled electron probe X-ray micro-analysis (CC-EPXMA) and their molecular structure probed by studying elemental associations. These were correlated with micro-Raman spectroscopy (MRS) results. It was found that the fine fraction (<38?μm) had the highest Pb (238?ppm) and Cr (171?ppm) concentrations. The CC-EPXMA data showed >50?% association of Cr-rich particles with Pb, and the MRS data showed that the Cr was mostly present as lead chromate and therefore in the Cr(VI) oxidation state. Concentrations of both Pb and Cr decreased substantially (279 (<38?μm)–13?ppm (<1?mm); 171 (<38?μm)–91?ppm (<?1?mm), respectively) in the larger fractions. Apart from rather alarmingly high concentrations of oxidative stressors (Cu, Fe, Mn), the carcinogenic and toxic potential of the inhalable fraction is evident. Preliminary bioaccessibility data indicated that both Cr and Pb are readily mobilised in artificial lysosomal liquid and up to 19?% of Cr and 47?% of Pb were released.     

Territorial resource valuation deviates from habitat quality in an ecologically trapped,long-distance migratory bird

Preference measures are widely used in habitat selection studies to test an animal’s choice relative to particular habitat features, but most measures are subject to criticism as they fail to indicate the underlying behavioral motivation. Order of settlement on breeding sites has been proposed as an effective measure in migratory organisms, as it conceptually approaches a choice experiment. We tested the assumption that early red-backed shrikes (Lanius collurio) are more willing to defend their territorial resource than individuals arriving later. We earlier showed that shrikes arriving first settled in forest plantations that resulted in lower reproductive success compared to territories on farmland, suggesting an ecological trap. Therefore, individuals are expected to place higher value on the lower quality sites in forests. Within the context of resource valuation theory in animal contests, we used a simulated territorial intrusion experiment to measure territorial defense and to evaluate the perceived value of the territory during the settlement phase in both habitat types. Males arriving early were much more motivated to defend their territory than late birds. After correction for the disparity in the timing of arrival between habitat types, shrikes also more vigorously defended their territories in the forest habitat associated with the lowest reproductive returns. Although some resource valuation mechanisms remain unclear, our results show that early and late-arriving individuals strongly differ in behavioral motivation to hold their territorial resources. This study also demonstrates for the first time that organisms may exhibit a higher degree of territorial aggressiveness in a lower quality habitat.     

Collapse and reorganization of a food web of Mwanza Gulf, Lake Victoria

Lake Victoria in East Africa is the world's second largest freshwater system. Over the past century the ecosystem has undergone drastic changes. Some 30 years after the introduction of Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in the 1950s, the highly diverse community of native haplochromines collapsed, leaving a system dominated by only four species: the native cyprinid dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea) and shrimp (Caridina nilotica), as well as the introduced Nile perch and Nile tilapia. More recently, an unexpected resurgence of haplochromines has been reported. To understand these changes in terms of ecosystem functioning and of changes in growth of trophic groups, we created mass balances of the food web near Mwanza, Tanzania, before, during, and after the Nile perch boom (1977, 1987, and 2005), using the application ECOPATH. We connected these mass balances with a dynamic model assuming linear trends in net growth rates of the trophic groups. Our analysis suggests that the Nile perch boom initially altered the biomass distribution over trophic levels. Also, results indicate that not only fishing but also changes at the detritivores' trophic level might have played an important role in driving changes in the system. Both the mass balances and the dynamic model connecting them reveal that, after a major distortion during the Nile perch boom, the biomass distribution over the main trophic levels had largely recovered its original (1977) state by 2005. However, no such return appeared in terms of community structure. Biodiversity in the new state is dramatically lower, consisting of introduced species and a few native surviving species. We conclude that at an aggregate level Lake Victoria's ecosystem has proved to be resilient in the sense that its overall trophic structure has apparently recovered after a major perturbation. By contrast, its intricate functional structure and associated biodiversity have proved to be fragile and seem unlikely to recover.