Mediated Modeling in Water Resource Dialogues Connecting Multiple Scales

We observe a paradigm shift toward collaborative, multi‐level (from local to global) water management and suggestions for scale‐related design principles in the literature. Decision‐support tools are needed that can help achieve scale design principles. Mediated modeling (MM) refers to model building with people, rather than for people. This tool belongs to a family of participatory, systems oriented tools. This article explores their suitability for addressing challenges and principles that arise at multiple‐scales. MM can promote the understanding of cross‐level and cross‐scale links, creating salient, credible, and legitimate knowledge and encouraging boundary functions. Prerequisites for successful MM processes include an openness and willingness to collaborative learning. As new “meso‐level” institutions emerge to address complex challenges in water management collaboratively, tools like MM may play an important role in structuring dialogues, developing adaptive management capacity and advance an ecosystem services approach.     

Feasibility of storing CO2 in the Utsira formation as part of a long term Dutch CCS strategy: An evaluation based on a GIS/MARKAL toolbox

This study provides insight into the feasibility of a CO₂ trunkline from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation in the Norwegian part of the North Sea, which is a large geological storage reservoir for CO₂. The feasibility is investigated in competition with CO₂ storage in onshore and near-offshore sinks in the Netherlands. Least-cost modelling with a MARKAL model in combination with ArcGIS was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the trunkline as part of a Dutch greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy for the Dutch electricity sector and CO₂ intensive industry. The results show that under the condition that a CO₂ permit price increases from €25 per tCO₂ in 2010 to €60 per tCO₂ in 2030, and remains at this level up to 2050, CO₂ emissions in the Netherlands could reduce with 67% in 2050 compared to 1990, and investment in the Utsira trunkline may be cost-effective from 2020–2030 provided that Belgian and German CO₂ is transported and stored via the Netherlands as well. In this case, by 2050 more than 2.1 GtCO₂ would have been transported from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation. However, if the Utsira trunkline is not used for transportation of CO₂ from Belgium and Germany, it may become cost-effective 10 years later, and less than 1.3 GtCO₂ from the Netherlands would have been stored in the Utsira formation by 2050. On the short term, CO₂ storage in Dutch fields appears more cost-effective than in the Utsira formation, but as yet there are major uncertainties related to the timing and effective exploitation of the Dutch offshore storage opportunities.     

Complex patterns of population structure and recruitment of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Plectropomus leopardus</Emphasis> (Pisces: Epinephelidae) in the Indo-West Pacific: implications for fisheries management

Here the population genetic structure of an ecologically and economically important coral reef fish, the coral trout Plectropomus leopardus, is investigated in the context of contemporary and historical events. Coral trout were sampled from four regions (six locations) and partial mtDNA D-loop sequences identified six populations (Fst = 0.89209, P < 0.0001): Scott Reef and the Abrolhos Islands in west Australia; the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), represented by northern and southern GBR samples; New Caledonia and Taiwan, with Taiwan containing two genetic lineages. Furthermore, this study identified source and sink populations within and among regions. Specifically, the northern population in west Australia (Scott Reef) was identified, as the source for replenishment of the Abrolhos population, whilst New Caledonia was a source for recruitment to the GBR. Based on these insights from a single mtDNA marker, this study will facilitate the development of rational management plans for the conservation of P. leopardus populations and therefore mitigate the risk of population declines from anthropogenic influences.     

Elemental concentrations in aerosols at the Belgian coast versus seasons and air mass trajectories

Marine aerosols have extensively been monitored in the framework of a research project to investigate the inorganic and organic nutrient fluxes of the atmospheric nitrogen input into the North Sea. As a part of this project bulk analysis was also performed by energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) on a total of 366 samples in order to provide detailed elemental composition. Samples have been clustered per campaign and differences were related to backward trajectories. Elements as Cl, Si, and S appeared to be the best tracers for coastal aerosols. Therefore they have been chosen to represent each campaign and to map the seasonal variations. It is clear that Cl is an excellent tracer for oceanic trajectories, while a less clear correlation between the soil dust components and the air mass trajectories is found.     

A mixed Bentham–Rawls criterion for intergenerational equity: Theory and implications

This paper proposes a welfare criterion that balances the need for development and the concern for the least advantaged generations, and explores its implications. This criterion, called the mixed Bentham–Rawls criterion, moderates the effect of discounting, yet permits some degree of intertemporal trade-off. It is a weighted average of two terms: (a) the sum of discounted utilities and (b) the utility level of the least advantaged generation. We derive necessary conditions to characterize growth paths that satisfy our criterion, and show that in some models with familiar dynamic specifications, an optimal path exists and displays appealing characteristics.     

The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: An assessment of the Netherlands and Australia

Evidence indicates that the concentration of stratospheric ozone has already decreased globally over the past several years and additional decreases are to be expected over the coming decades. A further depletion of the ozone layer would lead to an increase in the amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation. One of the adverse effects of particularly UV-B radiation on human health would be an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. In this study an integrated model is presented to assist in assessing the changes in skin cancer incidences in relation to changes in the amount of stratospheric ozone, for the Netherlands and Australia. Although surrounded by large uncertainties, model results show that, in view of the several delay mechanisms and, additionally, the ageing of the population, future increases in skin cancer incidence cannot be reversed.     

Assessing the acidification risk in the Lake Baikal region

Data from 3-year-long observations on the chemical composition of precipitation, atmospheric gases, aerosols, soils, and surface waters at three monitoring stations in the Baikal region are presented. The stability of terrestrial ecosystems and surface waters to acidification has been estimated quantitatively. It has been shown that, unlike soils, surface waters of the Baikal watershed are more sensitive to acid deposition. The permissible acidity load for soils and surface waters of the territory varied from 0.30 to 20.00 keq ha^-1 yr^-1, whereas the maximal contemporary acidity load attains 0.50 keq ha^-1 yr^-1.