Statistical Estimation and Model Selection of Species-Accumulation Functions

Abstract:  Soberón and Llorente (1993) proposed pure-birth stochastic processes as theoretical models for species-accumulation curves, and these processes have frequently been used to describe the progress of biological inventories. We describe, in algorithmic form, an alternative statistical analysis based on a likelihood approach ( Díaz-Francés & Gorostiza 2002 ) that provides mathematical rigor to the ideas in Soberón and Llorente (1993) and improves the estimation of the models by incorporating the facts that the variance of the error is not constant and that the observations are correlated. Additionally, we used the likelihood ratios between candidate models as an objective procedure for model selection, allowing comparison between the goodness of fit of various models. The software for these statistical methods can now be downloaded off the Internet. We used two examples of butterfly data sets to illustrate the use of the methods and the software.     

基于MODIS植被指数的浑善达克沙地植被物候变化

基于近20a MODIS的2种植被指数数据，利用Logistic曲线曲率极值法和动态阈值法，对浑善达克沙地植被物候进行了提取，分析其时空变化，并利用研究结果数据，分析植被物候对高程和气象因子的响应.结果表明，2000~2019年间研究区的植被物候呈微弱波动趋势，浑善达克沙地植被返青期（SOS）主要集中在110~140d，枯黄期（EOS）主要集中在250~280d，整体呈微弱推迟趋向（0.28d/a），生长季长度（LOS）主要集中在120~170d，整体呈微弱延长趋向（0.23d/a）.在空间分布上，占研究区51.51%的区域植被SOS呈提前趋势；占研究区67.02%的区域植被EOS呈提前趋势，并且占研究区32.98%的区域植被EOS呈推迟趋势.占研究区62.71%的区域植被LOS呈延长趋势.在海拔900~1500m区间，随着海拔升高，SOS显著推迟，EOS不显著提前，LOS显著缩短.前一年11、12月和当年1、2、4月降水量对SOS有提前作用.6、7、8、9月份气温和降水都对EOS推迟有明显的作用.总的来说，浑善达克沙地植被物候与气候因子的相应规律比较复杂，表现出季节性的差别及地形的差异性.     

R/S法的土石坝施工期沉降规律及预警标准研究

为提高施工期土石坝沉降安全性,研究其具有复杂非线性特征的施工期沉降规律和相应的预警标准。基于国内某在建高土石坝的沉降数据,采用R/S法分析坝体不同高程测点、同高程测点和同测点不同时期沉降数据的Hurst指数及分形维数,提出评价坝体施工期沉降安全性的预警标准。结果表明:各测点的Hurst指数最小值为0.763,坝内各处沉降仍处于快速增长阶段;坝体下部比上部、中部比下游堆石区沉降能更快趋于稳定,且坝体下部的沉降速率已经渐趋平缓。     

民营企业安全文化模型及其实证分析

针对民营企业特点,基于交互安全文化模型,建立民营企业安全文化模型并辨识 关键元素,以赛轮金宇股份有限公司为例进行实证分析。在广泛参考国内外相关研究的 基础上,设计调查问卷,运用粗糙集ROSETTA软件对测量结果进行属性简约,最终确定 15个安全文化元素;借助MATLAB,采用熵权法确定各元素权重,然后进行可拓综合评价 。评价结果表明该企业的“高层管理者重视”一项得分为4.82,水平较高,整体文化等 级属于“良”,级别特征变量j*=3.138 1。“创造安全舒适的工作环境”、“建立合理 的奖惩制度”、“定期进行应急演练”3个方面得分偏低,是安全文化建设需要重点加 强的方面。     

Human disturbance and shifts in vertebrate community composition in a biodiversity hotspot

Understanding how human modification of the landscape shapes vertebrate community composition is vital to understanding the current status and future trajectory of wildlife. Using a participatory approach, we deployed the largest camera-trap network in Mesoamerica to date to investigate how anthropogenic disturbance shapes the occupancy and co-occurrence of terrestrial vertebrate species in a tropical biodiversity hotspot: the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. We estimated species richness in different categories of land protection with rarefaction analysis and estimated the expected occupancy with a joint species distribution model that included covariates for anthropogenic disturbance, land protection, habitat quality, and habitat availability. Areas with the most stringent land-use protections (e.g., Corcovado National Park, 24 species [95% CI 23–25]) harbored significantly more species than unprotected areas (20 species [19.7–20.3]), mainly due to a reduced presence of large-bodied species of conservation concern in unprotected areas (e.g., jaguar Panthera onca and white-lipped peccary Tayassu pecari). Small-bodied generalist species, such as opossums (Didelphidae) and armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus), in contrast, were more common at disturbed sites, resulting in a significant difference in vertebrate community composition between sites with low and high disturbance. Co-occurrence of species was also mainly associated with response to disturbance. Similar responses to disturbance create two groups of species, those whose site-level occupancy usually increased as anthropogenic disturbance increased and those whose estimated occupancy decreased. The absence of large-bodied species entails an important loss of ecological function in disturbed areas and can hinder forest development and maintenance. Efforts to protect and restore forested landscapes are likely having a positive effect on the abundance of some threatened species. These efforts, however, must be sustained and expanded to increase connectivity and ensure the long-term viability of the wildlife community.