Forestry Mitigation Options for Mexico: Finding Synergies between National Sustainable Development Priorities and Global Concerns

We examine carbon (C) reference and mitigation scenarios for the Mexicanforest sector between the year 2000 and 2030. Estimates are presentedseparately for the period 2008–2012.Future C emissions and capture are estimated using a simulation modelthat: a) allocates the country land use/land cover classes among differentfuture uses and categories using demand-based scenarios for forestryproducts; b) estimates the total C densities associated to each land usecategory, and c) determines the net carbon implications of the process ofland use/cover change according to the different scenarios.The options analyzed include both afforestation/reforestation, such ascommercial, bionenergy and restoration plantations, and agroforestrysystems, and forest conservation, through the sustainable management ofnative forests and forest protection.The total mitigation potential, estimated as the difference between the totallong-term carbon stock in the reference and the mitigation scenario reaches300 × 10⁶ Mg C in the year 2012 and increases to 1,382 × 10⁶ Mg C in 2030. The average net sequestration in the 30 year period is 46 × 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1, or 12.5 × 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1 within the period 2008 to 2012. The costs of selected mitigation options range from 0.7–3.5 Mg C^-1 to 35 Mg C^-1. Some options are cost effective.