Inverse uncertainty characteristics of pollution source identification for river chemical spill incidents by stochastic analysis

Identifying source information after river chemical spill occurrences is critical for emergency responses. However, the inverse uncertainty characteristics of this kind of pollution source inversion problem have not yet been clearly elucidated. To fill this gap, stochastic analysis approaches, including a regional sensitivity analysis method, identifiability plot and perturbation methods, were employed to conduct an empirical investigation on generic inverse uncertainty characteristics under a well-accepted uncertainty analysis framework. Case studies based on field tracer experiments and synthetic numerical tracer experiments revealed several new rules. For example, the release load can be most easily inverted, and the source location is responsible for the largest uncertainty among the source parameters. The diffusion and convection processes are more sensitive than the dilution and pollutant attenuation processes to the optimization of objective functions in terms of structural uncertainty. The differences among the different objective functions are smaller for instantaneous release than for continuous release cases. Small monitoring errors affect the inversion results only slightly, which can be ignored in practice. Interestingly, the estimated values of the release location and time negatively deviate from the real values, and the extent is positively correlated with the relative size of the mixing zone to the objective river reach. These new findings improve decision making in emergency responses to sudden water pollution and guide the monitoring network design.

Open image in new window

     

Coastal dwellers-power against climate change: a place-based perspective on individual and collective engagement in North Frisia

Climate change induces non-linear and unevenly distributed changes, such rising sea levels and extreme weather events that materialise on the regional level and considerably contribute to changes in the social fabric of regions, communities and places. Because of the need for societal responses, an in-depth understanding of individual and collective forms of engagement with climate change is of growing relevance. To contribute to close this gap, this paper applies a place-based approach for investigating how people’s place attachments and meanings inform individual and collective engagement with climate change. As a case study, the district of North Frisia (Germany) was chosen, a region between climate-change vulnerability and renewable-energy potential. Qualitative interviews and a household survey with coastal dwellers of the municipality of Reußenköge have been conducted, a group discussion with the Country Youth (Landjugend) and further interviews with experts from government, companies and associations spread over North Frisia and in Kiel. The results reveal two main findings: firstly, place-dependent attachments and meanings play a pivotal role for understanding people’s engagement with climate change, and secondly, the behavioural dimension of engagement involves diverse adaptation and mitigation measures adopted on individual and collective level. In sum, the findings conceptually and empirically reveal the importance of memories, experiences, knowledge and creativity for how people engage with climate change, but also exhibit the importance of policies mobilising community-based actions.     

The regional framing of climate change: towards a place-based perspective on regional climate change perception in north Frisia

Numerous studies have begun to tackle the social and cultural dimensions of perceiving and framing climate change. Scholars from geography and environmental psychology in particular have started to highlight the importance of so-called place-based approaches to studying regional and local framings of climate change. This paper stands in this tradition. It reports on findings derived from a nationwide survey of perceptions of and reactions to extreme weather events and interviews conducted with inhabitants of three islands in the coastal region of North Frisia (Germany). Coastal dwellers understand climate change through the lens of local and regional experiences of meteorological phenomena, seasonal changes, knowledge of the sea, and changes in local flora and fauna. Our detailed ecolinguistic analysis revealed six prevailing conceptual metaphors: Climate change is an enemy, preventing climate change is fight/war, climate change is punishment for human sins, climate change is overheating/heat, climate change is hot air/hoax and climate change is eco-dictatorship. These metaphors were used to make sense of climate change at the regional level and provide insights into place-based social and cultural conceptualisations of climate change. An understanding of these meanings should feed into developing more grounded climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in coastal regions.     

Fossil bog soils (‘<Emphasis Type="Italic">dwog</Emphasis> horizons’) and their relation to Holocene coastal changes in the Jade Weser region,southern North Sea,Germany

After the deceleration of the postglacial marine transgression, the German North Sea coast was subject to deposition of a complex pattern of subtidal to terrestrial facies. This study aims at reconstructing these facies changes in the ‘Land Wursten’ region (Lower Saxony) by focussing on so-called dwog horizons (incipient soil horizons of the pre-engineered salt marshes). We explore their implications for relative sea-level reconstructions and their indication for early settlement activities. Archive drilling data (1960, provided by the ‘Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie’) were analysed to create five high-resolution stratigraphic cross sections. Three new drilling records were subjected to sedimentological and microfaunal investigations and interpreted to verify and calibrate the archive data. Two dwog horizons were found and ¹⁴C-AMS dated. We found basal salt marsh deposits inundated by a high-energy event and covered by tidal flat sediments. The thick tidal flat unit is again overlain by salt marsh deposits indicating the transition from a shallow marine to a terrestrial environment where dwogs were developed and covered by episodic marine incursions. The ages of the dwogs (1128–969 cal BC; cal AD 1426–1467) do not correlate with known layers of adjacent settlement sites and are critically discussed. However, we show that they correlate with phases of stagnant regional relative sea level (RSL) and can be used as RSL indicators. The combined archive and modern data provide valuable information for the RSL reconstruction and palaeoenvironmental changes. However, further research is recommended to accomplish more detailed information about coastal response during the Holocene sea-level changes and implications for settlement dynamics.     

A combined coastal protection,realignment and wetland restoration scheme in the southern Baltic: planning process,public information and participation

Markgrafenheide-Hütelmoor covers a total area of 1000 ha (about 490 ha are coastal moor) and a coastline of about 6 km. This touristy area belongs to the city of Rostock in Germany. As response to sea level rise and heavy coastal erosion, the small seaside resort Markgrafenheide received a comprehensive storm surge protection until 2006. Subsequently, the adjacent Hütelmoor was flooded with the aim to restore it as a brackish coastal moor. Coastal protection measures at the Baltic Sea coastline were abandoned to enable natural dynamics, a coastal realignment and salt water intrusions. The entire process until full implementation took 14 years and was associated with very problematic public participation and a strong local polarization. Based on a literature and media review, two surveys, and expert interviews we retrospectively document and analyse the planning process with focus on public information, perception and participation. The local population and holidaymakers did not perceive coastal changes and if, did not associate them with climate change. Interviewees remembered single storm surges, but felt save from it and sea level rise was not perceived as a threat. 89% said that they feel insufficiently informed about the combined coastal protection wetland restoration measure, but did not use the offered information possibilities. 81% had their information from newspapers and freely distributed advertisers. It seems that insufficient information was the major reason for the problems with local acceptance and public participation. The media played a dominating role. The decline of traditional newspapers and the growths of free advertisers seemed to have a negative impact on quality of information and favoured a polarization. Additionally, we discuss local specifics like the cultural background (GDR history), traditions, frustration and the relatively old population and their role in public participation. We strongly promote a pro-active and long-term information and public relation strategy.     

Recent shoreline evolution and beach erosion along the central Adriatic coast of Italy: the case of Molise region

A study on the modern dynamics and shoreline changes from 1954 to 2014 of the Molise coast (central Adriatic Sea) has been carried out. Short to long-term shoreline changes and associated surface area variations have been assessed in GIS environment for the study coast, subdivided in nine coastal segments (S1-S9), by using 100-m regularly spaced transects. In addition, the possible influence of natural and anthropogenic factors, especially of climatic variability and engineered shoreline defense structures, has been investigated. The Molise coast has experienced notable long-term erosion (period 1054-2014) that caused an overall coastal land loss of approximately 940,000 m². Erosion was, yet, limited to coastal segments S1 and S7, nearest to the mouths of major rivers, namely Trigno and Biferno, while the major part of the study coast has remained essentially stable or even advanced. Increased shoreline protection by defense structures has generally favoured shoreline stability and frequently generated shoreline advance, except for segments S1 and S7. Observed differences in shoreline change rates over time at the decadal to interannual scale, have not find a response in the analysis of available data on meteo-marine conditions of the Molise coast and climate variability indices, pointing out the need to improve knowledge on meteomarine conditions and on climatic variability forcing of the study area. From 2004 to 2014, the Molise shoreline remained essentially stable. Nonetheless, most recent shoreline changes (period 2011-2014) and modern shoreline dynamics indicate that erosion has become more widespread, involving at least part of segments S2-S3 and S8-S9, located south of the river mouth segments. The localized long-term shoreline retreat and most recent shoreline erosion appear to be primarily related to channel adjustments of the Biferno and Trigno rivers that occurred since the 1950s under the control of human interventions on the rivers, especially the construction respectively of a dam and a check dam along their lower courses, that trap of most of their solid load, affecting so adversely the sediment budget of the river mouths areas and adjacent beaches. Overall data acquired on the recent shoreline evolution and modern shoreline dynamics of the Molise coast and on related causal factors provide a good basic knowledge for regional coastal management purposes, and for further scientific purposes. Particularly, they suggest the opportunity to deepen a number of aspects such as the relationship between the coast and river catchments feeding it, the possible influences on the Molise shoreline dynamics of the neighbouring coasts, the efficiency/obsolescence of defense structures and the present-day vulnerability to coastal erosion of the Molise coast.     

Cosmogenic exposure dating constraints for coastal landslide evolution on the Island of Malta (Mediterranean Sea)

Landslides affecting the north-western coast of the Island of Malta have been investigated and monitored for 10 years. As a result of a bathymetric survey, it was discovered the deposits continued out onto the seafloor, thus raising questions as to the timing of their development. Furthermore it was uncertain as to which environment they developed in and which factors controlled their movements. The aim of this paper is to investigate representative detachments to chronologically constrain these mass movement events and outline their spatial and temporal evolution. Samples for exposure dating using the cosmogenic nuclide ³⁶Cl were collected from head scarps and blocks located within two long-term monitored landslides characterised by extensive block slides. The results indicate the oldest dated block detachment occurring in a subaerial environment at ca. 21 ka, when the sea level was about 130 m lower than at present. Mass movement possibly accelerated when sea level reached the landslide toe during the post-glacial marine transgression. Considering the timing of block movement, the landslide deposits observed today appear to be related to a first-time failure involving a large part of the slope, though and alternative hypothesis is also taken here into account. This main event is likely to have been followed by secondary movements influenced by toe undercutting and clay saturation due to rising sea level. However, further research on mass movement kinematics is required in order to model their evolution and explore whether this interpretation is widely applicable along the Maltese coast.     

The assessment of the coastal vulnerability and exposure degree of Gran Canaria Island (Spain) with a focus on the coastal risk of Las Canteras Beach in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

The Coastal Vulnerability and Exposure Degree (CVED) of the Gran Canaria Island and the coastal risk of Playa de Las Canteras (Las Palmas de G.C.) have been assessed by means of a GIS analysis. The evaluation of coastal vulnerability (H) has been performed by using two different levels of analysis: the first one regarding the entire Island (Coastal Vulnerability Index method - CVI), the second one regarding specifically Las Canteras Beach, selected for its socio-economic importance (Coastal Vulnerability Assessment method - CVA). The application of the CVI method, based on geologic-geomorphologic and meteomarine data easily available, has allowed the regional scale assessment of coastal vulnerability (H) along the Gran Canaria coastline and, therefore, the individuation of more critical coast stretches deserving further analysis. The application of the CVA method, based on more specific morphologic-sedimentary beach features that allow to consider both the beach retreat due to storm surge and the coastal inundation due to run-up on the beach, has provided a large scale detail on the coastal vulnerability of Las Canteras Beach. Socio-economic and damage indexes have been determined for the 15 coastal municipalities included in the study area and, by means of the resulting matrix product, the degree of exposure (E_x) along the Gran Canaria coast has been assessed. Finally, the combination of coastal vulnerability and exposure levels has allowed to obtain the Coastal Vulnerability and Exposure Degree (CVED) for the entire Island and the risk levels that characterize specifically Las Canteras Beach. Major results in terms of CVED highlight prevailing low vulnerability and exposure levels along the western coast, and overall high vulnerability and exposure levels along the eastern coast, from Las Palmas de G.C. to San Bartolomé de Tirajana. The focus made on Playa de Las Canteras has allowed to identify the areas characterized by medium and high risk levels that represent approximately one third (940 m) of the entire beach and are located in its central part. The used two-level analysis approach has proved its efficiency by highlighting the degree of coastal vulnerability along the study coast and, especially, more critical coast stretches (CVI method) such as the Playa de Las Canteras that can be successfully analysed with the CVA approach allowing for a large-scale assessment of risk aspects, essential for a correct definition of priority management strategies. Results obtained with the present study, along with the awareness of the increasing phenomena of coastal erosion and marine flooding arising on the mid-long term due to the effects of global climate change, highlight the need for the competent public administrations of Gran Canaria to develop a strategic approach to coastal management and sustainable development that considers as a whole socio-economic values and natural resources, coastal vulnerability and exposure degree, and risk aspects.     

High-resolution geological cartography and coastal evolution assessment at Armação de Pêra – Galé sector: a prototype for a national coastal mapping

Portuguese coastal areas are of current major concern due to the continuous expansion of a strong urbanization, accentuated development of economic activities, resilient land use and general population growth. A particular attention has been given to the shoreline evolution, pointing out evidences of critical coastal sectors that are prone to suffer adverse consequences of climate changes direct impacts. Areas where climate change and sea-level rise effects will be stronger include, among others, coastal sectors associated to soft rocky or mobile substrate shores and/or low morphological shores with recognized marked erosion trend. Within this context, the knowledge of the geological setting is imperative as different lithologies have distinct resistance and behavior against marine erosion. The available digital geological Portuguese cartography at 1:25000 scale is not suitable to well characterize the geology within the context of small geographic areas or within the perspective of costal management. Hence, the National Laboratory of Energy and Geology (LNEG) developed a prototype to evaluate the potential of the integrated “geological and coastal hazard mapping” at a 1:3000 resolution scale. The combination of detailed geology and historical coastline displacement information, in a single map, constitute a new and valuable cartographic product to support coastal managers and general users of littoral regions. The application of the prototype to the entire Portuguese coastal areas will be carried out by LNEG and digital information will be available at LNEG GeoPortal (http://geoportal.lneg.pt/).     

Evaluation of geomorphic changes and retreat rates of a coastal pyroclastic cliff in the Campi Flegrei volcanic district,southern Italy

Geomorphic evolution of sea cliffs has significant impact on coastal settlements worldwide, so that evaluation of cliff instability processes, failure factors, and retreat rates involves a growing number of scientists for coastal risk and management purposes. Aerial photogrammetry and lidar are among the most used techniques for topographic characterization and geomorphic monitoring of coastal environments. A crucial role in the combined use of such techniques is the evaluation of different spatial accuracy and co-registration between derived terrain models, so that a robust error analysis is required. In this study, we present a change detection analysis of the Torrefumo coastal cliff, in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Southern Italy). Aerial images taken in 1956 and 1974, processed through digital photogrammetry, and an airborne lidar point cloud acquired in 2008 were used to produce Digital Elevation Models of the cliff. The analysis was based on the multi-temporal comparison of these models and included the calculation of volumetric changes and average retreat rates of the cliff face with reference to the 1956–1974 and 1974–2008 time intervals. The spatially variable elevation uncertainty of each Digital Elevation Model was evaluated with a probabilistic approach based on the fuzzy set theory. The results of this study showed significant eroded volumes during the period 1956–1974 and relatively smaller volumes in the 1974–2008 time span, with mean annual retreat rates of 1.2 m/year and 0.17 m/year, respectively. We infer that the significant decrease of erosion characterizing the second period was induced by the sheltering effect at the base of the cliff produced by the construction of a seawall in the early 80’s.