Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Zimbabwe revisited: fresh evidence from Maki cointegration

This study explores the relationship between electricity consumption, real gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions in Zimbabwe. To achieve this, the study set off by examining the stationarity properties of the variables under review with the Zivot-Andrews (1992 Zivot, E., and D.W.K. Andrews. 1992. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal Of Business and Economic Statistics 10:251-270. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1391541.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) unit root test that accounts for a single structural break. Subsequently, Maki (2012 Maki, Daiki. 2012. “Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks.” Economic Modelling 29 (5): 2011–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2012.04.022 [Google Scholar]) cointegration test, which accounts for multiple structural breaks, is applied for equilibrium relationship between the variables under review while the long run regression of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) is employed for long-run coefficients as estimation procedures. In order to account for the direction of causality flow, the Toda-Yamamoto (1995 Toda, H Y.., and Taku Yamamoto. 1995. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal Of Econometrics 66 (1–2):225–50. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) causality test is used for annual frequency data set spanning from 1971–2014. Empirical evidence from the Maki cointegration test shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and real gross domestic product per capita over the sampled period. The long-run regression suggests that there exist a positive statistically significant relationship between real income and electricity consumption. Thus, corroborating the electricity-led growth hypothesis. This result is supported by the causality test, as one-way causality is observed running from electricity consumption to real gross domestic product. Thus, this is suggestive to government administrators and policymakers that the Zimbabwean economy is electricity dependent. However, there is a tradeoff for environmental quality. As the increase in electricity consumption increases carbon dioxide emissions. The need for diversification of Zimbabwe energy portfolio to cleaner and environmentally friendly energy sources is recommended, given the world global consciousness for cleaner energy consumption.     

An approach and preliminary model of integrating ecological and economic constraints of environmental quality in the Guayas River estuary, Ecuador

We describe conceptual and simulation models of land use within the intertidal zone of the Guayas River estuary to quantify the contribution of mangrove wetlands to maintaining environmental quality of a tropical estuary. The goal of this exercise is to demonstrate the important consideration of ecological constraints in determining economic and management decisions; and how modeling can be used to quantify impacts of land use such as loss of mangrove wetlands on environmental quality. Our conceptual model treats solar energy, river flow, and tides as forcing functions that control the properties of estuarine ecosystems, but also describes market forces and cultural policies as constraints on properties of socioeconomic systems. The controversy of coastal resource management in Ecuador centers around the relative impacts of shrimp pond construction and management as negative feedbacks to the environmental quality of the Guayas River estuary. Unique oceanographic processes and land use changes contribute to complex issues of water and habitat quality in this tropical estuary, the largest estuarine complex on the Pacific coast of South America. A dynamic box model was developed for the estuary and calibrated with data collected from a 14 month survey of water quality parameters throughout the estuary. Scenarios included conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds in three regions of the estuary, and the construction of a dam by varying three different rates of river discharge at 100, 50 and 10% of 1989 base flow. Good water quality is maintained by the low residence time of water in the estuary (11 d) because of seasonally high river flow and tidal exchange. With a 90% reduction of mangrove forests in the estuary caused by shrimp pond construction, total nitrogen concentrations increased 5 fold. However, as river discharge decreased to 10%, the same construction caused a 60 fold increase in nitrogen concentrations to 250 μM. Increases in nitrogen concentrations were higher in the upper estuary region, with much less change in the lower estuary. Thus the sensitivity of environmental quality to changes in land use in the intertidal and upland zone are linked to the hydrography of the estuary and is site specific. In the future, the combinations of these ecological models together with economic analyses of the goods and services of mangroves may provide better techniques to evaluate the economic impacts of specific coastal zone management decisions.     

Coupled hydromechanical modeling of CO2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers

Sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in deep saline aquifers has emerged as an option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. The large amounts of supercritical CO₂ that need to be injected into deep saline aquifers may cause large fluid pressure increases. The resulting overpressure may promote reactivation of sealed fractures or the creation of new ones in the caprock seal. This could lead to escape routes for CO₂. In order to assess the probability of such an event, we model an axisymmetric horizontal aquifer–caprock system, including hydromechanical coupling. We study the failure mechanisms, using a viscoplastic approach. Simulations illustrate that, depending on boundary conditions, the least favorable moment takes place at the beginning of injection. Initially, fluid pressure rises sharply because of a reduction in permeability due to desaturation. Once CO₂ fills the pores in the vicinity of the injection well and a capillary fringe is fully developed, the less viscous CO₂ displaces the brine and the capillary fringe laterally. The overpressure caused by the permeability reduction within the capillary fringe due to desaturation decreases with distance from the injection well. This results in a drop in fluid pressure buildup with time, which leads to a safer situation. Nevertheless, in the presence of low-permeability boundaries, fluid pressure continues to rise in the whole aquifer. This occurs when the radius of influence of the injection reaches the outer boundary. Thus, caprock integrity might be compromised in the long term.     

社会生态回复与社会冲突:瑞典水管理制度和战略适应

处理社会生态系统的不确定性和复杂性,深深地有赖于自然资源用户从使人惊讶的生态事件和危机中学习并适应的能力.本文分析了为什幺学习过程受自然资源用户中间的战略行为的影响,怎样影响,并且社会冲突是怎样受到社会和生态不确定性影响的.本文的主张是自然资源用户中的社会冲突严重抑止了从社会生态系统中学习并适应的可能性.这是结合了政治学、实验经济学、社会心理学并研究了一个分析案例后得出的,该案例研究了瑞典水管理制度中复杂的社会冲突和制度变化.本文还探讨了在瑞典水管理制度中,制度背景在确定学习过程的结果中扮演的关键性角色,并因此突出了以前在社会生态系统中学习过程和制度变化的较不详尽的政治方面.     

Association between prenatal sonographic findings and post-natal outcomes in 30 cases of isolated spina bifida aperta

This study presents 30 cases of fetal isolated spina bifida aperta (SBA) to identify prenatal ultrasound findings that could predict the prognosis. Comparisons between surviving patients who had normal (group 1) and abnormal (group 2) post-natal neurological outcomes were made for three different prenatal signs, that is, site of vertebral lesion, presence and degree of ventriculomegaly and presence of talipes. The site of the lesion was the most significant outcome predictor, as high spinal dysraphisms were observed in 2 patients (2/7–28.6%) in group 1 and in 15 patients (15/19–79.0%) in group 2 (p = 0.03). The presence of fetal ventriculomegaly was associated with impaired post-natal neurological development, as it occurred in 4 patients (4/7–57.1%) in group 1 and in 18 patients (18/19–94.7%) in group 2 (p = 0.04). The presence of talipes did not significantly differ between the two groups. Patients with abnormal intellectual outcome (8/26–30.8%) had significantly greater (p = 0.018) lateral ventricle/hemisphere ratios (mean = 0.74, standard deviation = 0.13) than those with normal intellectual development (mean = 0.54, standard deviation = 0.18). Mean post-natal follow-up was at 23 months (standard deviation = 15 months). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Atmospheric influence on the distribution of organic pollutants in the Guadalquivir River estuary, SW Spain

In the lower Guadalquivir river basin, a system stressed by a wide variety of anthropogenic activities, eight pesticides (four triazines, two chloroacetanilide herbicides, one organochlorine, and one organophosphorus insecticide); and four emerging pollutants (two personal care products, one organophosphorous flame retardant, and one xanthine alkaloid) were analyzed in river water during a 2-year monitoring program, and after rain episodes. Samples were extracted using the solid phase extraction (SPE) technique prior to determination of compounds using gas chromatograph coupled to a mass spectrometer detector. Except for caffeine, recoveries were mostly above 80 %, while limits of detection and quantification were in the low nanograms per liter level (except for dimethoate). Terbuthylazine, simazine (triazine herbicides), and dimethoate (organophosphorus insecticide), present in agrochemicals, were predominant in the river water, although concentrations were below the quality standards established by the EU Water-Framework-Directive. A general trend to increase concentration was observed after rain events, in particular for pesticides, possibly as a consequence of surface runoff.     

The possible association between selected sediment characteristics and the occurrence of benthic macroinvertebrates in a minimally affected river in South Africa

Forty-two families of which the vast majority associated with particles >2000?µm were found. Sediment particle sizes <2000?µm had a detrimental effect on biodiversity. The highest biodiversity was recorded at sites characterised by riffle and run habitats. Although relatively high concentrations of selected metals were present in the sediment, it was largely from geological origin and most probably not bioavailable. No significant correlation was demonstrated between variation in temperature, pH, and electrical conductivity and diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrates. Therefore, it can be concluded that, under these conditions, sediment particle size and biotope availability played a decisive role on the distribution and abundance of macroinvertebrate taxa.     

Restoring Forests and Associated Ecosystem Services on Appalachian Coal Surface Mines

Surface coal mining in Appalachia has caused extensive replacement of forest with non-forested land cover, much of which is unmanaged and unproductive. Although forested ecosystems are valued by society for both marketable products and ecosystem services, forests have not been restored on most Appalachian mined lands because traditional reclamation practices, encouraged by regulatory policies, created conditions poorly suited for reforestation. Reclamation scientists have studied productive forests growing on older mine sites, established forest vegetation experimentally on recent mines, and identified mine reclamation practices that encourage forest vegetation re-establishment. Based on these findings, they developed a Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) that can be employed by coal mining firms to restore forest vegetation. Scientists and mine regulators, working collaboratively, have communicated the FRA to the coal industry and to regulatory enforcement personnel. Today, the FRA is used routinely by many coal mining firms, and thousands of mined hectares have been reclaimed to restore productive mine soils and planted with native forest trees. Reclamation of coal mines using the FRA is expected to restore these lands’ capabilities to provide forest-based ecosystem services, such as wood production, atmospheric carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, watershed protection, and water quality protection to a greater extent than conventional reclamation practices.