Optimal management of a confined groundwater system

Dynamic programming is applied to a relatively simple economic and hydrologic model of a confined aquifer system in Southwest Montana to determine an optimal interseasonal allocation schedule. The derived decision rule demonstrates the economic advantage of maintaining a confined groundwater system. While localized intraseasonal loss of the artesian pressure may occur, it is important to maintain this pressure from year to year because of its role in reducing extraction costs. The welfare gap, as measured by differences in the net present value of economic returns to the basin under an optimal use policy versus an uncontrolled, “common pool” situation, is not trivial. Sensitivity analysis indicates that assumptions about uniformity of land productivity, vis-à-vis their impact on the shape of the returns function, the discount rate, and the level of electric power rates are particularly critical with respect to the magnitude of the commonality problem.     

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

Developing an integrated framework to assess agri-food systems and its application in the Ecuadorian Andes

Agri-food systems assessment can be performed following official and alternative framings, each linked to different objects of study, methods of analysis, and policy responses. Alternative frames conceptualize agri-food systems as the integration and interaction of humans and the agro-environment (i.e., as socio-ecological systems). This conceptualization allows studying the cross-level, cross-scale, and nonlinear interactions within and between the components of the system and help assess policy proposals, such as food sovereignty, in a more systemic way. To facilitate this, we link reflections and methodologies from complex system thinking and vulnerability studies applied to agri-food systems to propose an integrated framework of assessment, which links the agroecological context and the social function of agriculture, considering actor’s agency and institutional processes. This framework is suitable to analyze agri-food systems in fragile and marginal environments such as the Andean region. We apply the framework to assess vulnerability of local agri-food systems to global change in the southern Ecuadorian Andes, taking into account the role of peasant institutions (agroecological associations, comunas) and indigenous culture. The framework also allows understanding how agri-food policies change the configuration of agri-food systems and determines whether these changes are consistent with communities’ livelihoods reproduction.     

Estimating Full IM240 Emissions from Partial Test Results: Evidence from Arizona

ABSTRACT

The expense and inconvenience of enhanced-vehicle-emissions testing using the full 240-second dynamometer test has led states to search for ways to shorten the test process. In fact, all states that currently use the IM240 allow some type of fast-pass, usually as early in the test as second 31, and Arizona has allowed vehicles to fast-fail after second 93. While these shorter tests save states millions of dollars in inspection lanes and driver costs, there is a loss of information since test results are no longer comparable across vehicles. This paper presents a methodology for estimating full 240-second results from partial-test results for three pollutants: HC, CO, and NO_x. If states can convert all tests to consistent IM240 readings, they will be able to better characterize fleet emissions and to evaluate the impact of inspection and maintenance and other programs on emissions over time. Using a random sample of vehicles in Arizona which received full 240-second tests, we use regression analysis to estimate the relationship between emissions at second 240 and emissions at earlier seconds in the test. We examine the influence of other variables such as age, model-year group, and the pollution level itself on this relationship. We also use the estimated coefficients in several applications. First, we try to shed light on the frequent assertion that the results of the dynamometer test provide guidance for vehicle repair of failing vehicles. Using a probit analysis, we find that the probability that a failing vehicle will pass the test on the first retest is greater the longer the test has progressed. Second, we test the accuracy of our estimates for forecasting fleet emissions from partial-test emissions results in Arizona. We find forecasted fleet average emissions to be very close to the actual fleet averages for light-duty vehicles, but not quite as good for trucks, particularly when NO_x emissions are forecast.     

Dissipation of 2,4-D in soils of the Humid Pampa region, Argentina: a microcosm study

Phenoxy herbicides like 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) are widely used in agricultural practices. Although its half life in soil is 7-14d, the herbicide itself and its first metabolite 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP) could remain in the soil for longer periods, as a consequence of its intensive use. Microcosms assays were conducted to study the influence of indigenous microflora and plants (alfalfa) on the dissipation of 2,4-D from soils of the Humid Pampa region, Argentina, with previous history of phenoxy herbicides application. Results showed that 2,4-D was rapidly degraded, and the permanence of 2,4-DCP in soil depended on the presence of plants and soil microorganisms. Regarding soil microbial community, the presence of 2,4-D degrading bacteria was detected even in basal conditions in this soil, possibly due to the adaptation of the microflora to the herbicide. There was an increment of two orders of magnitude in herbicide degraders after 15d from 2,4-D addition, both in planted and unplanted microcosms. Total heterotrophic bacteria numbers were about 1x10(8) CFUg(-1) dry soil and no significant differences were found between different treatments. Overall, the information provided by this work indicates that the soil under study has an important intrinsic degradation capacity, given by a microbial community adapted to the presence of phenoxy herbicides.     

Marine protected areas for deepwater fish populations: an evaluation of their effects in Hawai’i

The success of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a tool for conservation and fisheries management has been well documented. However, these results have typically been seen in shallow water systems and questions remain whether this management strategy could be successfully applied to deepwater ecosystems. Our objectives were to determine the efficacy of four deepwater MPAs called bottomfish restricted fishing areas (BRFAs), with various time spans of protection, monitored at depths between 90 and 310 m from 2007 to 2011 for six species of deepwater snapper and one grouper harvested in the Main Hawaiian Islands. Our results suggested that the duration of protection influenced reserve effects, particularly for target species. Mean fish length, and in some cases abundance, increased for one or more of the most economically important target species inside nearly all tested BRFAs. In addition, more mature fish were seen inside the BRFA with the longest duration of protection (~14 years); species richness increased outside this area while inside it remained the same. Here, we provide the first evidence that deepwater MPAs can have positive effects on deepwater species and that many protection effects were consistent with results found in shallow water ecosystems. While these findings are novel, additional data over greater temporal scales will be necessary to determine whether these trends will continue and if others will become important over time.     

Lead in New York City community garden chicken eggs: influential factors and health implications

Raising chickens for eggs in urban areas is becoming increasingly common. Urban chickens may be exposed to lead, a common urban soil contaminant. We measured lead concentrations in chicken eggs from New York City (NYC) community gardens and collected information on factors that might affect those concentrations. Lead was detected between 10 and 167 μg/kg in 48 % of NYC eggs. Measures of lead in eggs from a henhouse were significantly associated (p < 0.005) with lead concentrations in soil. The association between soil and egg lead has been evaluated only once before, by a study of a rural region in Belgium. In our study, the apparent lead soil-to-egg transfer efficiency was considerably lower than that found in Belgium, suggesting that there may be important geographic differences in this transfer. We developed models that suggested that, for sites like ours, lead concentrations in >50 % of eggs from a henhouse would exceed store-bought egg concentrations (<7–13 μg/kg; 3 % above detection limit) at soil lead concentrations >120 mg/kg and that the concentration in one of six eggs from a henhouse would exceed a 100 μg/kg guidance value at soil lead concentrations >410 mg/kg. Our models also suggested that the availability of dietary calcium supplements was another influential factor that reduced egg lead concentrations. Estimates of health risk from consuming eggs with the lead concentrations we measured generally were not significant. However, soil lead concentrations in this study were <600 mg/kg, and considerably higher concentrations are not uncommon. Efforts to reduce lead transfer to chicken eggs and associated exposure are recommended for urban chicken keepers.     

Comparative impacts of stormwater runoff on water quality of an urban, a suburban, and a rural stream

Water quality data at 12 sites within an urban, a suburban, and a rural stream were collected contemporaneously during four wet and eight dry periods. The urban stream yielded the highest biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), orthophosphate, total suspended sediment (TSS), and surfactant concentrations, while the most rural stream yielded the highest total organic carbon concentrations. Percent watershed development and percent impervious surface coverage were strongly correlated with BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), orthophosphate, and surfactant concentrations but negatively with total organic carbon. Excessive fecal coliform abundance most frequently occurred in the most urbanized catchments. Fecal coliform bacteria, TSS, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, and BOD were significantly higher during rain events compared to nonrain periods. Total rainfall preceding sampling was positively correlated with turbidity, TSS, BOD, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Turbidity and TSS were positively correlated with phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, BOD, and chlorophyll a, which argues for better sedimentation controls under all landscape types.