河南马沟洞石笋记录的早中全新世气候和环境变化

基于河南省禹州市马沟洞2支石笋(MG-1与MG-40)24个~(230)Th年龄和1988个氧同位素数据,建立了研究区13.1—4.9 ka BP分辨率为2—14 a的石笋氧同位素时间序列。马沟洞石笋δ~(18)O的时间序列揭示季风降水在11.2—9.1 ka BP时段在波动中逐渐增加,9.1—4.9 ka BP季风降水显著波动但无明显长期趋势变化。YD事件、9.3 ka事件、8.2 ka事件记录与其他石笋δ~(18)O记录的一致性揭示末次冰消期—早全新世百年—千年尺度气候突变事件的大范围存在和共同的驱动因子。马沟洞全新世大暖期的δ~(18)O记录中检测出的13个数十年尺度的弱季风事件进一步证实全新世大暖期气候的不稳定性。与大气⊿~(14)C记录、NGRIP冰芯δ~(18)O记录的对比及周期分析揭示,太阳活动引起的太阳辐射变化和北半球高纬气候状况共同影响着亚洲季风的变化,ENSO活动及气候系统内部的相互作用也对东亚夏季风降水产生重要的影响。     

Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm,Uzbekistan

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. The current vulnerability assessments through traditional fragmented sectoral methods are insufficient to capture the effects on complex agricultural systems. Therefore, the traditional methods need to be replaced by integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to propose a holistic vulnerability assessment method for agricultural systems. By aggregating both agro-ecological and socio-economic information, we develop an agricultural systems vulnerability index (ASVI) which allows for (i) a classification of geographical units according to their vulnerability level, (ii) an identification of key determinants of vulnerability for each unit and (iii) an assessment of adaptation policy scenarios considering their effects on the sustainability of the analysed systems. The proposed method is applied in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan—a representative irrigated agricultural region in the lower Amu Darya river basin. A decision support tool is used to facilitate multi-criteria decision analysis, including the computation of the index and performing sensitivity analysis of the results. The assessment for Khorezm reveals significant spatial differences of vulnerability levels due to a variation of contributing factors, e.g. natural resources, water productivity, rural-urban ratio. It reveals also that feasible land and water management policies could reduce the vulnerability in Khorezm, particularly in the districts with the poorest agro-ecological conditions. Overall, the proposed method could support national and local authorities in the identification of sustainable adaptation policies for the agriculture sector.     

A life cycle comparison of greenhouse emissions for power generation from coal mining and underground coal gasification

Underground coal gasification (UCG) is an advancing technology that is receiving considerable global attention as an economic and environmentally friendly alternative for exploitation of coal deposits. UCG has the potential to decrease greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) during the development and utilization of coal resources. In this paper, the life cycle of UCG from in situ coal gasification to utilization for electricity generation is analyzed and compared with coal extraction through conventional coal mining and utilization in power plants. Four life cycle assessment models have been developed and analyzed to compare (greenhouse gas) GHG emissions of coal mining, coal gasification and power generation through conventional pulverized coal fired power plants (PCC), supercritical coal fired (SCPC) power plants, integrated gasification combined cycle plants for coal (Coal-IGCC), and combined cycle gas turbine plants for UCG (UCG-CCGT). The analysis shows that UCG is comparable to these latest technologies and in fact, the GHG emissions from UCG are about 28 % less than the conventional PCC plant. When combined with the economic superiority, UCG has a clear advantage over competing technologies. The comparison also shows that there is considerable reduction in the GHG emissions with the development of technology and improvements in generation efficiencies.     

NUTGRANJA 2.0: a simple mass balance model to explore the effects of different management strategies on nitrogen and greenhouse gases losses and soil phosphorus changes in dairy farms

Farm nutrient management has been identified as one of the most important factors determining the economic and environmental performance of dairy cattle (Bos taurus) farming systems. Given the environmental problems associated with dairy farms, such as emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), and the complex interaction between farm management, environment and genetics, there is a need to develop robust tools which enable scientists and policy makers to study all these interactions. This paper describes the development of a simple model called NUTGRANJA 2.0 to evaluate GHG emissions and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses from dairy farms. NUTGRANJA 2.0 is an empirical mass-balance model developed in order to simulate the main transfers and flows of N and P through the different stages of the dairy farm management. A model sensitivity test was carried out to explore some of the sensitivities of the model in relation to the simulation of GHG and N emissions. This test indicated that both management (e.g. milk yield per cow, annual fertiliser N rate) and site-specific factors (e.g. % clover (Trifolium) in the sward, soil type, and % land slope) had a large effect on most of the model state variables studied (e.g. GHG and N losses).     

Monetary incentives to avoid deforestation under the Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)+ climate change mitigation scheme in Tanzania

The paper estimates and compares the level of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) payments required to compensate for the opportunity costs (OCs) of stopping the conversion of montane forest and miombo woodlands into cropland in two agro-ecological zones in Morogoro Region in Tanzania. Data collected from 250 households were used for OC estimation. REDD+ payment was estimated as the net present value (NPV) of agricultural rent and forest rent during land clearing, minus net returns from sustainable wood harvest, divided by the corresponding reduction in carbon stock. The median compensation required to protect the current carbon stock in the two vegetation types ranged from USD 1 tCO₂e^?1 for the montane forest to USD 39 tCO₂e^?1 for the degraded miombo woodlands, of which up to 70 % and 16 %, respectively, were for compensating OCs from forest rent during land clearing. The figures were significantly higher when the cost of farmers’ own labor was not taken into account in NPV calculations. The results also highlighted that incentives in the form of sustainable harvests could offset up to 55 % of the total median OC to protect the montane forest and up to 45 % to protect the miombo woodlands, depending on the wage rates. The findings suggest that given the possible factors that can potentially affect estimates of REDD+ payments, avoiding deforestation of the montane forest would be feasible under the REDD+ scheme. However, implementation of the policy in villages around the miombo area would require very high compensation levels.     

Assessing external factors on substitution of fossil fuel by biofuels: model perspective from the Nordic region

The aim of this study is to develop a theoretical model by which to demonstrate how taxes and subsidies work as external factors to substitute fossil fuel by a forest-based biofuel. For biofuels, this study predominantly considers solid-form biomass that generates electricity; for fossil fuels, it considers coal. The model results explicated with three states by using various numeric values taken from the literature. Three states are as follows: a situation without a tax and subsidy, a situation with a biofuel subsidy, and a situation with a biofuel subsidy and a fossil fuel tax. The results of the first state exemplify current fuel market situation; those of the second indicate that the aggregate demand for biofuel has shifted upwards by around 15 % and that substitution has increased by around 18 % due to biofuel subsidies being offered. Under the third state, aggregate biofuel demand has shifted upwards by around 19 %, reduced the demand for fossil fuels by around 13 %, and increased substitution by around 31 %. This state relates to a greater sense of social welfare than other two states. It is conceivable that the joint application of taxes and subsidies will succour biofuel to supplant fossil fuel in the near future.     

The vulnerability of hydropower production in the Zambezi River Basin to the impacts of climate change and irrigation development

The Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa is relatively undeveloped from both a hydropower and irrigated agriculture perspective, despite the existence of the large Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. Accelerating economic growth increases the potential for competition for water between hydropower and irrigated agriculture, and climate change will add additional stresses to this system. The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of major existing and planned new hydropower plants to changes in climate and upstream irrigation demand. Our results show that Kariba is highly vulnerable to a drying climate, potentially reducing average electricity generation by 12 %. Furthermore, the expansion of Kariba generating capacity is unlikely to deliver the expected increases in production even under a favourable climate. The planned Batoka Gorge plant may also not be able to reach the anticipated production levels from the original feasibility study. Cahora Bassa’s expansion is viable under a wetting climate, but its potential is less likely to be realised under a drying climate. The planned Mphanda Nkuwa plant can reach expected production levels under both climates if hydropower is given water allocation priority, but not if irrigation is prioritised, which is likely. For both Cahora Bassa and Mphanda Nkuwa, prioritising irrigation demand over hydropower could severely compromise these plants’ output. Therefore, while climate change is the most important overall driver of variation in hydropower potential, increased irrigation demand will also have a major negative impact on downstream plants in Mozambique. This implies that climate change and upstream development must be explicitly incorporated into both project and system expansion planning.     

How China’s current energy pricing mechanisms will impact its marginal carbon abatement costs?

Economic and social costs and benefits are critical factors affecting greenhouse gas abatement activities. Recognizing that energy prices are one of the most important factors influencing abatement costs, this study improved the basic China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis (CEEPA) model by introducing a current energy pricing mechanism for China. The improved model was applied to generate marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for China including the current energy pricing mechanism and to analyze MACs for the whole country and main abatement sectors in China under different energy pricing mechanisms. The results show that China MACs are sensitive to pricing mechanisms for electricity and refined oil. Ignoring the current regulation of these prices will lead to MAC underestimation, and price liberalization of these two energy sources could lead to a decrease in China MACs. Under a 50 % emission reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is ignored, the China MAC is underestimated by almost 16 %. Energy pricing reforms will lead to variations in sectoral abatement costs and overall abatement potential, and these impacts are projected to be large in the electricity sector. Under a 50 % reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is liberalized, MAC for the electricity sector nearly will decrease 50 %.     

The adaptive capacity of institutions in the spatial planning,water, agriculture and nature sectors in the Netherlands

The climate change problem calls for a continuously responding society. This raises the question: Do our institutions allow and encourage society to continuously adapt to climate change? This paper uses the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) to assess the adaptive capacity of formal and informal institutions in four sectors in the Netherlands: spatial planning, water, agriculture and nature. Formal institutions are examined through an assessment of 11 key policy documents and informal institutions are analysed through four case studies covering each sector. Based on these ACW analyses, both sector-specific and more general strengths and weaknesses of the adaptive capacity of institutions in the Netherlands are identified. The paper concludes that the most important challenge for increasing institutional adaptive capacity lies in combining decentralized, participatory approaches with more top-down methods that generate leadership (visions, goals) standards, instruments, resources and monitoring.     

Managing the nitrogen cycle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from crop production and biofuel expansion

Public policies are promoting biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuel consumption in order to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the mitigation benefit can be at least partially compromised by emissions occurring during feedstock production. One of the key sources of GHG emissions from biofuel feedstock production, as well as conventional crops, is soil nitrous oxide (N₂O), which is largely driven by nitrogen (N) management. Our objective was to determine how much GHG emissions could be reduced by encouraging alternative N management practices through application of nitrification inhibitors and a cap on N fertilization. We used the US Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2) as the basis for a case study to evaluate technical and economic drivers influencing the N management mitigation strategies. We estimated soil N₂O emissions using the DayCent ecosystem model and applied the US Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to project GHG emissions for the agricultural sector, as influenced by biofuel scenarios and N management options. Relative to the current RSF2 policy with no N management interventions, results show decreases in N₂O emissions ranging from 3 to 4 % for the agricultural sector (5.5–6.5 million metric tonnes CO₂?eq.?year^?1; 1 million metric tonnes is equivalent to a Teragram) in response to a cap that reduces N fertilizer application and even larger reductions with application of nitrification inhibitors, ranging from 9 to 10 % (15.5–16.6 million tonnes CO₂?eq.?year^?1). The results demonstrate that climate and energy policies promoting biofuel production could consider options to manage the N cycle with alternative fertilization practices for the agricultural sector and likely enhance the mitigation of GHG emissions associated with biofuels.