Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols:(2) Global health impact

In this second of two companion papers, we quantify for the first time the global impact on premature mortality of the inter-continental transport of fine aerosols (including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and mineral dust) using the global modeling results of (Liu et al., 2009). Our objective is to estimate the number of premature mortalities in each of ten selected continental regions resulting from fine aerosols transported from foreign regions in approximately year 2000. Our simulated annual mean population-weighted (P-W) concentrations of total PM2.5 (aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm) are highest in East Asia (EA, 30 μg m^?3) and lowest in Australia (3.6 μg m^?3). Dust is the dominant component of PM2.5 transported between continents. We estimate global annual premature mortalities (for adults age 30 and up) due to inter-continental transport of PM2.5 to be nearly 380 thousand (K) in 2000. Approximately half of these deaths occur in the Indian subcontinent (IN), mostly due to aerosols transported from Africa and the Middle East (ME). Approximately 90K deaths globally are associated with exposure to foreign (i.e., originating outside a receptor region) non-dust PM2.5. More than half of the premature mortalities associated with foreign non-dust aerosols are due to aerosols originating from Europe (20K), ME (18K) and EA (15K); and nearly 60% of the 90K deaths occur in EA (21K), IN (19K) and Southeast Asia (16K). The lower and higher bounds of our estimated 95% confidence interval (considering uncertainties from the concentration–response relationship and simulated aerosol concentrations) are 18% and 240% of the estimated deaths, respectively, and could be larger if additional uncertainties were quantified. We find that in 2000 nearly 6.6K premature deaths in North America (NA) were associated with foreign PM2.5 exposure (5.5K from dust PM2.5). NA is least impacted by foreign PM2.5 compared to receptors on the Eurasian continent. However, the number of premature mortalities associated with foreign aerosols in NA (mostly occurring in the U.S.) is comparable to the reduction in premature mortalities expected to result from tightening the U.S. 8-h O₃ standard from 0.08 ppmv to 0.075 ppmv. International efforts to reduce inter-continental transport of fine aerosol pollution would substantially benefit public health on the Eurasian continent and would also benefit public health in the United States.     

Measured reduction of kerbside ultrafine particle number concentrations in Copenhagen

The average particle number concentration kerbside at a busy street in Copenhagen has been reduced by 27% from the period 2002–2004 to the period 2005–2007. The reduction is in the ultrafine particle range (<100 nm). Strong evidence indicates that a significant part of the reduction, especially in the size range <30 nm, is due to the transition to sulphur-free (<10 ppm) diesel fuel and petrol in Denmark at New Year 2005.     

Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is crucial. To estimate the effect of tree size and spatial distributions on growth for forest structures commonly considered in uneven-aged forest stand management, large (0.2 ha+) plots were established in 14 uneven-aged ponderosa pine stands in eastern Montana. All study trees were stem-mapped and measured for diameter and 10-year sapwood and basal area increment. A generalized growth model was developed to predict both total and merchantable 10-year basal area increment for nine hypothetical stand structures [three diameter distributions (reverse-J, irregular, flat) × three spatial distributions (clumpy, partial clumpy, uniform)]. Results indicate that the size and spatial distributions of individual trees have a considerable effect on overall stand growth. The greatest total stand growth was in stands with reverse “J” shaped tree size distributions, while the greatest merchantable stand growth was in stands with “flat” diameter distributions and uniform spatial distributions. Through better comprehension of generalized uneven-aged stand growth dynamics, forest managers may better assess the effects of alternative stand structures on stand growth while providing forest stand structures that may be more resilient in a changing climate.     

How organizational motives and communications affect public trust in organizations: The case of carbon dioxide capture and storage

Preventing climate change is among the greatest environmental challenges facing the world today. Recently developed carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is an important strategy to mitigate climate change. Public trust in organizations involved in CCS technology is important for successful implementation of this technology. This work adresses how inferred organizational motives and organizational communications affect public trust in these organizations. Study 1 (N = 264) showed that Dutch citizens generally have less trust in the industrial organizations than in the environmental NGOs involved in CCS. As predicted, inferred organizational motives (organization-serving motives versus public-serving motives) accounted for this difference. In Study 2 (N = 78) and Study 3 (N = 51) we used experimental designs. Both experiments showed that organizations that communicated arguments incongruent with inferred organizational motives instigated less trust than organizations that communicated arguments congruent with inferred organizational motives. Study 3 additionally showed that communicating an incongruent and a congruent argument together diminished the negative effects of the incongruent argument. In both Study 2 and Study 3 the effect of congruency on trust was mediated by perceived honesty of the organizations.     

Increasing exfiltration from pervious concrete and temperature monitoring

Pervious concrete typically has an infiltration rate far exceeding any expectation of precipitation rate. The limiting factor of a retention based pervious concrete system is often defined by how quickly the underlying soil subgrade will infiltrate the water temporarily stored within the concrete and/or aggregate base. This issue is of particular importance when placing a pervious concrete system on compacted fine textured soils. This research describes the exfiltration from twelve pervious concrete plots constructed on a compacted clay soil in eastern Tennessee, USA. Several types of treatments were applied to the clay soil prior to placement of the stone aggregate base and pervious concrete in an attempt to increase the exfiltration rate, including: 1) control – no treatment; 2) trenched – soil trenched and backfilled with stone aggregate; 3) ripped – soil ripped with a subsoiler; and 4) boreholes – placement of shallow boreholes backfilled with sand. The average exfiltration rates were 0.8 cm d⁻¹ (control), 4.6 cm d⁻¹ (borehole), 10.0 cm d⁻¹ (ripped), and 25.8 cm d⁻¹ (trenched). The trenched treatment exfiltrated fastest, followed by the ripped and then the borehole treatments, although the ripped and borehole treatments were not different from one another at the 5% level of significance. The internal temperature of the pervious concrete and aggregate base was monitored throughout the winter of 2006–2007. Although the temperature of the pervious concrete dropped below freezing 24 times, freezing concrete temperatures never coincided with free water being present in the large pervious concrete pores. The coldest recorded air temperature was −9.9 °C, and the corresponding coldest recorded pervious concrete temperature was −7.1 °C. The temperature of the pervious concrete lagged diurnal air temperature changes and was generally buffered in amplitude, particularly when free water was present since the addition of water increases the thermal capacity of the pervious concrete greatly. The temperature of the aggregate base was further buffered to diurnal changes, and no freezing temperatures were recorded.     

Shrub Encroachment Impacts the Potential for Multiple Use Conflicts on Public Land

Public rangelands in North America are typically managed under a multiple use policy that includes livestock grazing and wildlife management. In this article we report on the landscape level extent of grassland loss to shrub encroachment in a portion of the Rocky Mountain Forest Reserve in southwestern Alberta, Canada, and review the associated implications for simultaneously supporting livestock and wildlife populations while maintaining range health on this diminishing vegetation type. Digitized aerial photographs of 12 km of valley bottom from 1958 and 1974 were co-registered to ortho-rectified digital imagery taken in 1998, and an un-supervised classification used to determine areas associated with grassland and shrubland in each year. Field data from 2002 were over-layed using GPS coordinates to refine the classification using a calibration-validation procedure. Over the 40-year study period, open grasslands declined from 1,111 ha in 1958 to 465 ha in 1998, representing a 58% decrease. Using mean production data for grass and shrub dominated areas we then quantified aggregate changes in grazing capacity of both primary (grassland) and secondary (shrubland) habitats for livestock and wildlife. Total declines in grazing capacity from 1958 to 1998 totaled 2,744 Animal Unit Months (AUMs) of forage (−39%), including a 58% decrease in primary (i.e., open grassland) range, which was only partly offset by the availability of 1,357 AUMs within less productive and less accessible shrubland habitats. Our results indicate shrub encroachment has been extensive and significantly reduced forage availability to domestic livestock and wildlife, and will increase the difficulty of conserving remaining grasslands. Although current grazing capacities remain marginally above those specified by regulated grazing policies, it is clear that continued habitat change and decreases in forage availability are likely to threaten the condition of remaining grasslands. Unless shrub encroachment is arrested or grassland restoration initiated, reductions in aggregate ungulate numbers may be necessary.

Vertical distribution of anthropogenic radionuclides in cores from contaminated floodplains of the Yenisey River

The Mining and Chemical Industrial Combine, Zheleznogorsk (MCIC, previously known as Krasnoyarsk-26) on the River Yenisey has contaminated the surrounding environment with anthropogenic radionuclides as a result of discharges of radioactive wastes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the vertical distribution of anthropogenic contamination (¹³⁷Cs and plutonium) within floodplain areas at different distances from the discharge point. Sites were chosen that display different characteristics with respect to periodic inundation with river water. Cs-137 activity concentrations were in the range 23–3770 Bq/kg (dry weight, d.w.); Pu-239,240 activity concentrations were in the range <0.01–14.2 Bq/kg (d.w.). Numerous sample cores exhibited sub-surface maxima which may be related to the historical discharges from the MCIC. Possible evidence indicating the deposition of earlier discharges at MCIC in deeper core layers was observed in the ²³⁸Pu:^239,240Pu activity ratio data: a Pu signal discernible from global fallout could be observed in numerous samples. Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 activity concentrations were correlated with the silt fraction (% by mass <63 μm) though no significant correlation was observed between (grain-size) normalised ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations and distance downstream from the MCIC.     

Extending the environmental risk assessment for oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) under pandemic use conditions to the coastal marine compartment

In case of an avian-influenza-derived human flu pandemic, an inordinately high use of medicines over several weeks is predicted, in particular for the recommended influenza antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu). While the risk of oseltamivir to sewage works and freshwater bodies has already been assessed, the fact that a large percentage of the human population worldwide lives relatively close to the sea raises concern for its environmental compatibility in coastal marine waters. The potential risk of high oseltamivir use to the marine compartment is assessed in this publication, based on the 2003 European Community Technical Guidance Document (TGD) for risk assessment. Subchronic embryo–larval ecotoxicity tests with three marine invertebrates (Pomatoceros triqueter, Annelida; Mytilus edulis, Mollusca; Paracentrotus lividus, Echinodermata) and chronic growth inhibition tests with two different groups of marine microalgae (Isochrysis galbana, Haptophyta; Skeletonema costatum, Heterokontophyta) were performed with the active substance oseltamivir carboxylic acid to derive a dependable marine predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC). This was compared to a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) for oseltamivir in coastal waters, based on the worst-case freshwater PEC. The PEC/PNEC risk characterisation ratio for the marine compartment is well below 1, which in the terminology of the TGD signifies no immediate concern. Further, while oseltamivir may be persistent (P), it is not bioaccumulative (B) nor highly ecotoxic (T) and therefore not a PBT substance. In conclusion, even a high pandemic use of oseltamivir would not lead to a significant risk for the marine compartment, in confirmation of the risk assessment for sewage works and freshwaters.     

Accumulation of anthropogenic radionuclides in cryoconites on Alpine glaciers

Cryoconites are airborne sediments which accumulate on the surface of glaciers. In samples of cryoconites a temperate Austrian glacier high activity concentrations of anthropogenic radionuclides were found, which stem from global and Chernobyl fallouts. Radionuclides identified were ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239+240Pu, ⁹⁰Sr, ²⁴¹Am, ⁶⁰Co, ¹⁵⁴Eu, ²⁰⁷Bi, and ¹²⁵Sb.     

Design considerations for environmental sustainability in high density development: a case study of Hong Kong

This study has indicated that there is close relationship between development density and environmental quality; therefore, it is necessary to decide the form of development carefully beforehand. The form of development is shaped either by new development or urban renewal which is a major tactic nowadays adopted by the Hong Kong Government to improve the living condition of the citizens and the quality of the built environment. This study is limited to urban renewal and aims to find out the major urban design considerations for sustaining the environment. Through a questionnaire survey carried out in Hong Kong, the opinions of architects, planners, property development managers, and local citizens were sought and evaluated, and critical design factors for enhancing environmental sustainability of urban renewal projects are highlighted. The results derived from factor analysis indicated that certain design considerations should be incorporated for sustaining the urban environment. “Land Use Planning”, “Quality of Life”, “Conservation & Preservation”, “Integrated Design”, “Provision of Welfare Facilities”, and “Conservation of Existing Properties” were believed to be the significant underlying factors for achieving environmental sustainability of local urban renewal projects. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.