Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A simple and effective approach for detecting maternal cell contamination in molecular prenatal diagnosis

The presence of maternal cells in fetal samples constitutes a serious potential source for prenatal misdiagnosis. Here we present our approach for detecting maternal cell contamination (MCC) at prenatal diagnosis for eight monogenic disorders (autosomal recessive: β-thalassaemia, sickle-cell anaemia, cystic fibrosis, prelingual deafness; autosomal dominant: achondroplasia, Huntington disease, myotonic dystrophy, neurofibromatosis type I; X-linked: spinobulbar muscular atrophy). Our aim was to apply a simple and low-cost approach, which would easily and accurately provide information on the fetal tissue MCC status. MCC testing was applied to cases of recessive inheritance where the primary mutation screening of the fetus revealed the presence of the maternal mutation, to cases concerning dominant inheritance and to cases of multiple gestation. The potential presence of maternal cells was determined by the amplification of the 3′-HVR/APO B, D1S80, THO1 and VNTRI of vWf polymorphic loci, which have previously demonstrated high heterozygosity in Caucasians. Among 135 prenatal diagnoses, 44 finally needed to be tested for MCC (32.6%). MCC was detected in four cases, where DNA was isolated directly from chorionic villi samples (CVS), and in one case with DNA isolated directly from amniotic fluid (AF). In almost 90% of cases a simple test of one polymorphic locus provided sufficient information about MCC. The choice of the appropriate locus is therefore essential, while the simultaneous screening of both parents provides the means for distinguishing non-informative sites about MCC. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainability: a Dissent

Abstract:  Broadly conceived and considered in its many usages, sustainability has grave defects as a planning goal, particularly when used by conservationists: it confuses means and ends; it is vague about what is being sustained and who or what is doing the sustaining; it is uninspiring; it is little more than Pinchot-era conservation (and thus ignores the many lessons learned since then); it need not be linked to land, to the land's functioning, or to any ecological science; it need not include a moral component; it is consistent with the view of humans as all-powerful manipulators of the planet; and, in general, it is such a malleable term that its popularity provides only a facade of consensus. When sustainability is defined broadly to include the full range of economic and social aspirations, it poses the particular risk that ecological and biodiversity concerns will be cast aside in favor of more pressing human wants. Given these many defects, the conservation movement should discard the term in favor of a more alluring goal, attentive to nature and its ecological functioning. A sound goal would incorporate and distill the considerable ecological and moral wisdom accumulated since Pinchot's day while giving conservationists the rhetorical tools needed to defend the land against competing pressures. In our view, conservation would be well served by an updated variant of "land health," Aldo Leopold's ecologically grounded goal from the 1940s. Land health as an independent understanding should set the essential terms of how we live and enjoy the earth, providing the framework within which we pursue our many social and economic aims.     

A study of the growth and decay of cigarette smoke NOx in ambient air under controlled conditions

The amount of NO₂ and NO produced by the machine smoking of cigarettes was determined for 15 commercial Canadian brands. Average yield of NO was 1.44 μmoles or about 13% of the average reported for American cigarettes. Levels of NO₂ were less than 12% of NO and were probably due to the oxidation of NO. In order to assess the contribution of tobacco smoke to levels of NO in ambient air, 5 brands of cigarettes were smoked in 27 cubic meter controlled environment room. Ventilation conditions were either 2.5 or 5.0 air changes per hour (ACH) and each experiment was replicated 3 times for a total of 30 experiments. Ventilation rates of 0.3 and 1.5 ACH were also selected in a second series of experiments in which only one brand of cigarette was smoked. Least squares estimates for the effective ventilation rates were obtained in the usual manner after linearizing the decay portion of the NO time curve. In each of the experiments, the regression explained at least 95% of the variation in the levels of NO with time. Loss of NO due to factors other than ventilation appeared to be constant within experimental error and averaged 2.22 ACH. Equilibrium values for NO were grossly underestimated when results from currently accepted proecedures for smoke analysis were used in modeling the growth and decay of NO. Goodness-of-fit was improved when equilibrium values were estimated based on observed levels in ambient air. This approach may be more suitable for evaluating the potential contribution of cigarette smoke to levels of indoor air pollutants.     

Loss of genetic diversity in Harpacticoida near offshore platforms

Offshore oil and gas production platforms can be a source of chronic stress that could lead to sublethal impacts on resident benthic organisms. In June 1993 and January 1994, genetic diversity of Harpacticoida (Copepoda) living proximal to operating, offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico was estimated to test if platforms are associated with strong selective pressures. Because harpacticoids have short generation times and direct benthic development, they are suitable organisms for examining population responses. Genetic diversity was estimated by comparing restriction fragment length polymorphisms generated from mitochondrial DNA amplified by the polymerase chain reaction on individuals of five species (Cletodes sp., Enhydrosoma pericoense, Normanella sp., Robertsonia sp., and Tachidiella sp.). Populations living at Near regions (stations<50 m from a platform) had significantly less haplotype diversity than populations of the same species living at Far regions (stations>3 km from a platform). The levels of haplotype diversity exhibited by the Far populations were similar at three different platforms located hundreds of kilometers apart. The differences in haplotype diversity between Near and Far regions were the result of a higher proportion of dominant haplotypes, and a loss of less common haplotypes. Haplotypic diversity was inversely correlated with a multivariate measurement of levels of sediment contaminants. The pattern of haplotype diversity on the Gulf of Mexico continental shelf seems to consist of a uniform level of haplotype diversity, punctuated by islands of lower diversity around oil and gas platforms. The selective pressures that lead to a loss of genetic diversity may be the result of contaminants, other differences in the physico-chemical environment, or disturbance in general.     

The qiongshan earthquake of july 1605

In 1605 a destructive earthquake affected the northern region of Hainan Island and adjacent parts of the Chinese mainland. Based on a detailed analysis of contemporary chronicles, the authors present a revision of the effects of the earthquake, and show that a sequence of strong shocks throughout 1605 caused cumulative damage and relatively heavy loss of life in Qiongshan. The subsidence of large areas of coast round Puqian Bay and Dongzhai Port is shown to be due to a combination of liquefaction caused by the shock, the occurrence of a typhoon associated with flooding and exacerbated by a high surge tide, as well as a long-term process of active tectonic movement in the area; the subsidence was not caused by downthrow of the earth's crust during the shock. Topographical changes in the area, traced from historical maps, suggest that subsidence is continuing, but a survey of the long-term seismicity of Hainan Island indicates that it is not an area of exceptional seismic risk.