What shall we teach in environmental statistics?

The need for statistical methodology in environmental and ecological applications has grown dramatically over the past few decades, to where targeted and/or specialized courses in environmental statistics are necessary at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. We discuss here the construction of such courses, and pose questions on the course development process for the statistical and environmental community. Our exposition is based upon our own experience with the design of a graduate environmental statistics course.     

Price expectations and the supply of wastepaper

For some time the price response of the supply of wastepaper has been analyzed in terms of either static simultaneous equation models, or by the use of fairly ad hoc distributed lag models. This paper suggests that a model based on the price expectations of wastepaper suppliers is capable of explaining certain anomalies in earlier empirical work, and confirms the view that purely price-based policies to stimulate wastepaper recycling are likely to be ineffective. Not only is the supply of wastepaper insensitive to changes in price expectations, but the latter are themselves very slow to adjust to changes in actual prices.     

False elevation of amniotic fluid enzymes of relevance for prenatal diagnosis: Creatine kinase measurement in relation to duchenne muscular dystrophy

The creatine kinase activity of amniotic fluid was measured in samples collected at fetoscopy. In our first study, the control sample range was 0-25 IU/1, although four samples had activities of 35–85 IU/1. Elevated values did not correlate with the activities in the fetal or maternal circulations. Electrophoresis revealed the presence of the BB isozyme of creatine kinase rather than just the MM form as expected. This suggested that the source of the elevated enzyme activity was from the myometrium, damaged by insertion of the trocar and cannula. In a further series the first 2 ml of amniotic fluid withdrawn yielded a much higher creatine kinase activity than a second aliquot. A control series of such second samples (first 2 ml discarded) gave an activity range of 0–7 IU/1 with no spuriously high values. This compares favourably with a series from single samplings taken by amniocentesis. Normal creatine kinase activities were found in the amniotic fluids from 20 pregnancies at risk for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. We conclude that for accurate measurement of amniotic fluid enzyme activity the first portion withdrawn should be discarded. Amniotic fluid creatine kinase activity is of no value for the prenatal diagnosis of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.     

A study of gas-phase mercury speciation using detailed chemical kinetics.

Mercury speciation in combustion-generated flue gas was modeled using a detailed chemical mechanism consisting of 60 reactions and 21 species. This speciation model accounts for the chlorination and oxidation of key flue-gas components, including elemental mercury (Hg0). Results indicated that the performance of the model is very sensitive to temperature. Starting with pure HCl, for lower reactor temperatures (less than approximately 630 degrees C), the model produced only trace amounts of atomic and molecular chlorine (Cl and Cl2), leading to a drastic underprediction of Hg chlorination compared with experimental data. For higher reactor temperatures, model predictions were in good accord with experimental data. For conditions that produce an excess of Cl and Cl2 relative to Hg, chlorination of Hg is determined by the competing influences of the initiation step, Hg + Cl = HgCl, and the Cl recombination reaction, 2Cl = Cl2. If the Cl recombination reaction is faster, Hg chlorination will eventually be dictated by the slower pathway Hg + Cl2 = HgCl2.     

Impacts of tropical forest disturbance on species vital rates

Tropical forests are experiencing enormous threats from deforestation and habitat degradation. Much knowledge of the impacts of these land-use changes on tropical species comes from studies examining patterns of richness and abundance. Demographic vital rates (survival, reproduction, and movement) can also be affected by land-use change in a way that increases species vulnerability to extirpation, but in many cases these impacts may not be manifested in short-term changes in abundance or species richness. We conducted a literature review to assess current knowledge and research effort concerning how land-use change affects species vital rates in tropical forest vertebrates. We found a general paucity of empirical research on demography across taxa and regions, with some biases toward mammals and birds and land-use transitions, including fragmentation and agriculture. There is also considerable between-species variation in demographic responses to land-use change, which could reflect trait-based differences in species sensitivity, complex context dependencies (e.g., between-region variation), or inconsistency in methods used in studies. Efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic impacts on species demography are underway, but there is a need for increased research effort to fill knowledge gaps in understudied tropical regions and taxa. The lack of information on demographic impacts of anthropogenic disturbance makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions about the magnitude of threats to tropical ecosystems under anthropogenic pressures. Thus, determining conservation priorities and improving conservation effectiveness remains a challenge.     

Characterization of Ozone During Consecutive Drought and Wet Years at a Rural West Virginia Site

Ozone concentrations at a rural-remote site in a forested region of north-central West Virginia were monitored during 1988 and 1989, a drought and wet year, respectively. During 1988, the absolute maximum average concentration for a single hour was 156 ppb, while it was only 107 ppb in 1989. Overall, the frequency of high concentrations was greater during 1988; the 120 ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard was exceeded 17 times. The 7-h period encompassing the highest growing season concentrations for this site over the 2-yr period is 1100- 1759 h EST, rather than the period 0900-1559 h originally used by the National Crop Loss Assessment Network. The 7-h growing season means (0900-1559 h) of 52.6 ppb and 47.1 ppb for 1988 and 1989, respectively, compare well to those reported for the Piedmont/Mountain/Ridge-Valley area, but are higher than those for other surrounding areas. The diurnal ozone patterns, as well as the distribution of concentration ranges and timing of seasonal maxima, suggest that long-range transport of ozone and its precursors probably is an important factor at this site, given its remote and rural character.     

A reassessment of the mating system characteristics of the army ant Eciton burchellii

In a recent study, Denny et al. (2004a) showed that queens of the army ant, Eciton burchellii, mate with multiple males and presented estimates suggesting that they mate with more males than queens of any other ant species so far investigated. They also inferred that data were consistent with queens being inseminated repeatedly throughout their life, which would be exceptional among the social Hymenoptera and contradictory to predictions from kin selection theory. In the present study, we reanalyze these data using new software and supplement them with similar microsatellite data from other colonies of the same species. Mating frequencies in E. burchellii are indeed very high (mean observed and effective queen-mating frequencies of 12.9 each) but considerably lower than the previous estimates. We show that the number of patrilines represented in the first worker offspring of a young queen is lower than in older queens but suggest that this may be due to initial sperm clumping in the queen’s sperm storage organ, rather than to repeated inseminations. Moreover, we found no evidence for repeated mating by genotyping sequential worker generations produced by a single old queen, showing that she did not obtain new inseminations despite ample opportunities for mating.     

Evidence for life history changes in high-altitude populations of three perennial forbs

Relatively little is known about how the life histories of perennial forb species, and especially their lifetime patterns of growth, vary across environmental gradients. We used a post hoc approach (herb-chronology) to determine plant age and previous growth (width of successive annual rings in roots) in three species of perennial forb (two long-lived species [Penstemon venustus, Lupinus laxiflorus] and one short-lived [Rudbeckia occidentalis]) along a 1000-m altitudinal gradient in the Wallowa Mountains (northeast Oregon, USA). Plants from the highest altitude tended to be considerably older and produced up to five times as many flowering shoots as lowland plants. In addition, mean ring widths of high-altitude plants were about half those of lowland plants. In plants from low and intermediate altitudes, ring width either decreased linearly or varied inconsistently during the life of the plant. In contrast, ring widths of high-altitude plants increased at first and later decreased, resulting in curvilinear growth trajectories that were highly consistent among species. Together, these data for three ecologically distinct forb species provide evidence of a consistent shift toward more conservative and strongly constrained life histories at higher altitudes. More generally, the results indicate the possible importance of changes in selection pressures across strong environmental gradients on life history strategies within a single species.     

Recognition that causal processes change during plant invasion helps explain conflicts in evidence

Despite intensive research, we still have no general understanding of why plant invasions occur. Many different mechanisms of plant invasions have been proposed, but studies designed to investigate them often produce inconsistent results. It remains unclear whether this unsatisfying state of affairs reflects the complexity of the real world (in which every invasion is unique) or the failure to identify the key processes driving most plant invasions. Here we argue that greater generalization is possible, but only if we recognize that the ecological and evolutionary processes enabling a species to advance into a new area change during the course of an invasion. In our view, an invasion can often usefully be subdivided into a primary phase, in which the abundance of an often preadapted species increases rapidly (typically in resource-rich, disturbed habitats), and a secondary phase, in which further spread is contingent upon plastic responses or genetic adaptation to new ecological circumstances. We present various examples to show how this partitioning of the invasion phase sensu stricto produces new hypotheses about the processes underlying plant invasions. Some of these hypotheses can be conveniently tested by investigating plant invasions along strong environmental gradients such as those that occur in mountainous regions.