Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Molecular phylogeny and population structure of tideland snails in the genus Cerithidea around Japan

Phylogenetic relationships and genetic population structures were analyzed for tideland gastropods in the genus Cerithidea around Japan on the basis of partial sequence of the mitochondrial COI gene. Large genetic divergence was shown between individuals of Cerithidea cingulata in the southern Ryukyus and those in the central Ryukyus and the Japanese Islands. Haplotypes of C. cingulata from the Japanese Islands were paraphyletic with the exclusion of a monophyletic group from the central Ryukyus. Genetic differentiation of C. cingulata was also detected between Amami-Oshima Island and Okinawajima Island. No genetic divergence was found between Cerithidea rhizophorarum in the Japanese Islands and its subspecies C. rhizophorarum morchii in the Ryukyu Islands. The lack of genetic divergence of Cerithidea largillierti between continental China and Japan suggests relatively recent migration between the Japanese Islands and the Asian continent. For all three Cerithidea species distributed in both the Japanese Islands and the Ryukyu Islands, the Tokara Gap and the Kerama Gap were shown to have acted as barriers to the dispersal.     

Molecular taxonomy of vestimentiferans of the western Pacific and their phylogenetic relationship to species of the eastern Pacific

The nucleotide sequence of part (624 bp) of a mitochondrial gene for cytochrome oxidase I was determined for 46 escarpiid vestimentiferans collected from seven sites in the western Pacific and 49 individual specimens of Arcovestia ivanovi from two sites in the Manus Basin. Phylogenetic analysis, based on the newly obtained and previously reported sequences, indicated that escarpiids in the western Pacific can be divided into two tentative species, as we proposed in a previous report. While members of the first tentative species have been collected exclusively from a seep area at a depth of 300 m off the coast of central Japan, the members of the second species inhabit some sites at depths greater than 1,100 m, namely, seep areas in Japanese and Papua-New Guinean waters as well as hydrothermal vent fields in the Okinawa Trough and the Manus Basin. We detected no genetic structure among populations of the second tentative species. The first tentative species was more closely related to a species in the eastern Pacific, Escarpia spicata, and to a species in the Gulf of Mexico, Escarpia laminata, than to the second tentative species in the western Pacific. Sequences obtained from all arcovestiids were identical with the exception of those from three individuals, each of which included a single synonymous nucleotide substitution relative to the dominant haplotype, and no genetic differences were detected between specimens from the two sites in the Manus Basin.     

Prenatal diagnosis of Apert syndrome: report of two cases

Two de novo cases with Apert Syndrome detected prenatally are presented herein. In the first, fetal ultrasound findings of syndactyly of the hands, craniosynostosis and proptosis resulted in a prenatal diagnosis in the nineteenth week of gestation. This is the earliest prenatal diagnosis of this syndrome in a not-at-risk case. Following counseling, this pregnancy was terminated and subsequent pathological examination and DNA analysis confirmed the diagnosis of Apert Syndrome and coarctation of the aorta. In the second case, fetal ultrasound at 21 weeks' gestation revealed a hypoplastic left heart and clover-leaf skull. Following counseling, this pregnancy was also terminated. Further examination of the fetus and DNA analysis led to a diagnosis of Apert Syndrome. These cases emphasize the need to complete a thorough fetal ultrasound in cases with potentially lethal cardiac abnormality and the importance of incorporating a fetal pathologist, as well as a medical geneticist, in the investigations performed after delivery or pregnancy termination when a fetal abnormality is detected on ultrasound. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Composition of Floating Debris in Harbours of the United States

As part of a programme to characterize floating anthropogenic debris in the aquatic environment, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted 18 field surveys in the harbours of major metropolitan cities of the east, west, and Gulf coasts of the United States and the Mid-Atlantic Bight. the surveys were designed to provide information on the types, relative amounts, and distributions of aquatic debris in different geographic regions of the United States. Neuston nets (0.33 mm mesh) were used to collect surface debris during outgoing tides on two or three consecutive days in selected areas of each city. After each net tow, the debris, which ranged in size from small resin pellets to large plastic sheeting pieces, was identified, categorized, and counted. the data are being used to qualitatively characterize aquatic debris in coastal metropolitan areas, to examine potential regional variations, and to tentatively identify potential sources.     

What Exactly Is an Endangered Species? An Analysis of the U.S. Endangered Species List: 1985–1991

Critics of the Endangered Species Act have asserted that is protects an inordinate number of subspecies and populations, in addition to full species, and that the scientific rationale for listing decisions is absent or weak. We reviewed all U.S. plants and animals proposed for listing or added to the endangered species list from 1985 through 1991 to determine the relative proportion of species, subspecies, and populations, and their rarity at time of listing. Approximately 80% of the taxa added to the list were full species, 18% were subspecies, and 2% were distinct populations segments of more widespread vertebrate species. The proportion of subspecies and populations was considerably higher among birds and mammals than among other groups. The median populations size at time of listing for vertebrate animals was 1075 individuals; for invertebrate animals it was 999. The median population size of a plant at time of listing was less than 120 individuals. Earlier listing of declining species could significantly improve the likelihood of successful recovery, and it would provide land managers and private citizens with more options for protecting vanishing plants and animals at less social or economic cost.