Emission versus Input Taxes for Diffuse Nitrate Pollution Control in the Presence of Transaction Costs

The most important obstacle to solving diffuse pollution problems is that emissions are either unobservable or cannot be observed at a reasonable cost. Biophysical models may provide sufficient information to set a cost-effective emission tax. However, evidence from recent studies has shown that transaction costs for emission-based policies are higher per hectare than for input-based policies. An economic model of agriculture for the Kennet catchment in south-east England shows that, when transaction costs are accounted for, an input tax is more efficient than an emission tax over a range of emission standards. This result has policy implications in that it indicates, first, that economists' policy recommendations should account for transaction costs, and, secondly, that the standard advice that emission-based policies are superior may be wrong where transaction costs differ substantially between emission- and input-based policies.     

Air bag effectiveness as function of impact speed

An investigation was conducted to estimate the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity. The study consisted of three parts: a theoretical idealization, an analysis of National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS), and a reanalysis of previously published Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data. The theoretical analysis looked at idealized risk curves as a function of velocity; assuming that the air bag offers a benefit for both belted and unbelted occupants. Analysis of the NASS/CDS data looked at the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity for Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ injuries. The reanalysis of the previously published FARS data looked at the effectiveness of the air bag as a function of velocity for fatalities. The theoretical analysis indicates that the air bag effectiveness should be greatest at the low velocities. The field data analysis of both NASS/CDS and FARS were consistent with the theoretical analysis, indicating that air bags are most effective at the lower velocities, below 40 kph (25 mph), for both belted and unbelted occupants. Although it was not possible to estimate a different effect for belted and unbelted for fatalities using FARS, it was possible for MAIS 3+ using NASS/CDS. For unbelted occupants the effectiveness goes to zero or becomes negative above 40 kph (25 mph) for MAIS 3+, and for belted occupants the effectiveness stays positive but with significantly lower magnitude for speeds above 40 kph (25 mph).     

An Exploration of the Value of Naturalness and Wild Nature

The source of the value of naturalness is of considerable relevance for the conservation movement, to philosophers, and to society generally. However, naturalness is a complex quality and resists straightforward definition. Here, two interpretations of what is “natural” are explored. One of these assesses the naturalness of species and ecosystems with reference to a benchmark date, such as the advent of industrialization. The value of naturalness in this case largely reflects prioritization of the value of biodiversity. However, the foundation of our understanding of naturalness is that it describes processes that are free of human intervention. Conflict between the two interpretations of naturalness is apparent in the claim that naturalness can be enhanced by human intervention, in the form of ecological restoration. Although naturalness in its purest form precludes human intervention, some human activities are also apparently more natural than others. This continuum of naturalness relates to the autonomy of the individual from abstract instrumentalism, which describes a particular form of influence ubiquitous in contemporary society. The value of naturalness reflects both dissatisfaction with these threats to personal autonomy, and respect for wild nature as the embodiment of a larger-than-human realm.     

Conservation or Preservation? A Qualitative Study of the Conceptual Foundations of Natural Resource Management

Few disputes in the annals of US environmentalism enjoy the pedigree of the conservation-preservation debate. Yet, although many scholars have written extensively on the meaning and history of conservation and preservation in American environmental thought and practice, the resonance of these concepts outside the academic literature has not been sufficiently examined. Given the significance of the ideals of conservation and preservation in the justification of environmental policy and management, however, we believe that a more detailed analysis of the real-world use and understanding of these ideas is needed. In this paper, we describe the results of a qualitative, semantic study of the concepts of conservation and preservation undertaken in the context of the Chattahoochee National Forest (CNF), located in northern Georgia (USA). Thirty in-depth interviews were conducted with scientists and north Georgia residents either interested or involved in the future management of the forest. Respondents were asked to define conservation and preservation in their own words and to indicate which approach they felt was more appropriate for the management of the CNF. Qualitative content analysis was used to elicit a set of recurring themes for each foundational concept. Taken together, these themes help to flesh out the meaning of conservation and preservation for citizens and scientists today, and illustrate the evolving nature of two of the more significant and venerable ideas animating US environmental policy and management.     

Non-invasive fetal genotyping for maternal alleles with droplet digital PCR: A comparative study of analytical approaches

Objectives

To develop a flexible droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) workflow to perform non-invasive prenatal diagnosis via relative mutation dosage (RMD) for maternal pathogenic variants with a range of inheritance patterns, and to compare the accuracy of multiple analytical approaches.

Methods

Cell free DNA (cfDNA) was tested from 124 archived maternal plasma samples: 88 cases for sickle cell disease and 36 for rare Mendelian conditions. Three analytical methods were compared: sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), Bayesian and z-score analyses.

Results

The SPRT, Bayesian and z-score analyses performed similarly well with correct prediction rates of 96%, 97% and 98%, respectively. However, there were high rates of inconclusive results for each cohort, particularly for z-score analysis which was 31% overall. Two samples were incorrectly classified by all three analytical methods; a false negative result predicted for a fetus affected with sickle cell disease and a false positive result predicting the presence of an X-linked IDS variant in an unaffected fetus.

Conclusions

ddPCR can be applied to RMD for diverse conditions and inheritance patterns, but all methods carry a small risk of erroneous results. Further evaluation is required both to reduce the rate of inconclusive results and explore discordant results in more detail.     

NELUP: Some Reflections on Undertaking and Reporting InterdisciplinaryRiver Catchment Modelling

NELUP was a five-year academic research project into interdisciplinary river catchment modelling. The experience of staff involved offers useful insights into the intellectual and practical problems associated with interdisciplinary catchment management research and the dissemination and acceptance of results. In particular, it is suggested that: entrenched academic territories, derived from disciplinary and data differences, make managing an interdisciplinary team of researchers a non-trivial task; data errors, model complexity and model generality masked by a seductively sophisticated-looking DSS risk an illusion of technique; and that acceptance of decision support is hindered by practitionersand policy makers' suspicion of potential automated decision making by default.     

Auditing the Assessment of the Environmental Impacts of Planning Projects

This paper presents the results from a post-auditing study-a comparison of the predictions of environmental impacts of projects made in environmental statements prior to developmentwith those that actually occurred upon or after development. The purpose of post-auditing is to provide an analysis of prediction performance in environmental impact assessment and thus to improve future practice by learning from experience. By means of a combination of site visits, interviews and document scrutiny, 865 predictions from 28 UK projects granted planning permission were examined. Of these, 488 (56%) were auditable, of which 383 (79%) were deemed 'accurate' or 'nearly accurate' and 105 (21%) 'inaccurate'. The remaining 377 (44%) predictions were not auditable, the main reasons being lack of data, vague or ambiguous predictions and time dependency.There were only six unpredicted impacts. The study reveals some encouraging findings, but also a number of discouraging ones, which indicate the need to increase both enthusiasm for, and implementationof, post-auditing activities. Several suggestions are made to help achieve these objectives.