Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

MODIS Biophysical States and NEXRAD Precipitation in a Statistical Evaluation of Antecedent Moisture Condition and Streamflow1

Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km² watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r² = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.     

Beyond the Prevention of Harm: Animal Disease Policy as a Moral Question

European animal disease policy seems to find its justification in a “harm to other” principle. Limiting the freedom of animal keepers—e.g., by culling their animals—is justified by the aim to prevent harm, i.e., the spreading of the disease. The picture, however, is more complicated. Both during the control of outbreaks and in the prevention of notifiable, animal diseases the government is confronted with conflicting claims of stakeholders who anticipate running a risk to be harmed by each other, and who ask for government intervention. In this paper, we first argue that in a policy that aims to prevent animal diseases, the focus shifts from limiting “harm” to weighing conflicting claims with respect to “risks of harm.” Therefore, we claim that the harm principle is no longer a sufficient justification for governmental intervention in animal disease prevention. A policy that has to deal with and distribute conflicting risks of harm needs additional value assumptions that guide this process of assessment and distribution. We show that currently, policies are based on assumptions that are mainly economic considerations. In order to show the limitations of these considerations, we use the interests and position of keepers of backyard animals as an example. Based on the problems they faced during and after the recent outbreaks, we defend the thesis that in order to develop a sustainable animal disease policy other than economic assumptions need to be taken into account.     

Bench-scale composting of source-separated human faeces for sanitation

In urine-diverting toilets, urine and faeces are collected separately so that nutrient content can be recycled unmixed. Faeces should be sanitized before use in agriculture fields due to the presence of possible enteric pathogens. Composting of human faeces with food waste was evaluated as a possible method for this treatment. Temperatures were monitored in three 78-L wooden compost reactors fed with faeces-to-food waste substrates (F:FW) in wet weight ratios of 1:0, 3:1 and 1:1, which were observed for approximately 20 days. To achieve temperatures higher than 15 degrees C above ambient, insulation was required for the reactors. Use of 25-mm thick styrofoam insulation around the entire exterior of the compost reactors and turning of the compost twice a week resulted in sanitizing temperatures (>or=50 degrees C) to be maintained for 8 days in the F:FW=1:1 compost and for 4 days in the F:FW=3:1 compost. In these composts, a reduction of >3 log(10) for E. coli and >4 log(10) for Enterococcus spp. was achieved. The F:FW=1:0 compost, which did not maintain >or=50 degrees C for a sufficiently long period, was not sanitized, as the counts of E. coli and Enterococcus spp. increased between days 11 and 15. This research provides useful information on the design and operation of family-size compost units for the treatment of source-separated faeces and starchy food residues, most likely available amongst the less affluent rural/urban society in Uganda.     

Assessment of the status of municipal solid waste management in metro cities, state capitals, class I cities, and class II towns in India: an insight

Solid waste management is one of the most challenging issues in urban cities, which are facing a serious pollution problem due to the generation of huge quantities of solid waste. This paper presents an assessment of the existing situation of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in major cities in India. The quantity and composition of MSW vary from place to place, and bear a rather consistent correlation with the average standard of living. Extensive field investigations were carried out for quantification, analysis of physical composition, and characterization of MSW in each of the identified cities. The MSW management status (per the MSW Rules, 2000) has also been assessed, and an action plan for better management has been formulated; both are presented in this paper. Studies carried out in 59 selected cities in India have revealed that there are many shortcomings in the existing practices used in managing the MSW. These shortcomings pertain mainly to inadequate manpower, financial resources, implements, and machinery required for effectively carrying out various activities for MSWM. To overcome the deficiencies in the existing MSWM systems, an indicative action plan has been presented incorporating strategies and guidelines. Based on this plan, municipal agencies can prepare specific action plans for their respective cities.     

Municipal solid waste management in Rasht City, Iran

Pollution and health risks generated by improper solid waste management are important issues concerning environmental management in developing countries. In most cities, the use of open dumps is common for the disposal of wastes, resulting in soil and water resource contamination by leachate in addition to odors and fires. Solid waste management infrastructure and services in developing countries are far from achieving basic standards in terms of hygiene and efficient collection and disposal. This paper presents an overview of current municipal solid waste management in Rasht city, Gilan Province, Iran, and provides recommendations for system improvement. The collected data of different MSW functional elements were based on data from questionnaires, visual observations of the authors, available reports and several interviews and meetings with responsible persons. Due to an increase in population and changes in lifestyle, the quantity and quality of MSW in Rasht city has changed. Lack of resources, infrastructure, suitable planning, leadership, and public awareness are the main challenges of MSW management of Rasht city. However, the present situation of solid waste management in this city, which generates more than 400tons/d, has been improved since the establishment of an organization responsible only for solid waste management. Source separation of wastes and construction of a composting plant are the two main activities of the Rasht Municipality in recent years.     

A note on the effectiveness of the house-arrest alternative for motivating DWI offenders to install ignition interlocks

Introduction

The effectiveness of ignition interlocks at reducing drunk driving has been limited by the ability of driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) offenders to avoid court orders to install the devices.

Methods

In a pilot program in New Mexico, four Santa Fe County judges imposed home confinement (via electronic monitoring bracelets) on offenders who claimed to have no car or no intention to drive. Interlock installation rates for Santa Fe County were compared with all other counties in New Mexico over a 2-year program and 2-year post-program period.

Results

During the two program years, 70% of the drivers convicted of DWI in Santa Fe County installed interlocks, compared to only 17% in the other counties, but when the program was terminated, the Santa Fe installation rate fell by 18.8 percentage points.

Summary

Mandating the alternative sanction of house arrest led to the highest reported interlock installation rate for DWI offenders.

Impact on Industry

Impaired driving is a substantial expense to employers, particularly when it bars driving that interferes with employment. Interlocks provide a method of protecting the public while permitting the offender to drive sober. This study was directed at increasing interlock use by DWI offenders.     

Preferred modes of travel among older adults: What factors affect the choice to walk instead of drive?

Introduction

There are many factors that influence older adults' travel choices. This paper explores the associations between mode of travel choice for a short trip and older adults' personal characteristics.

Methods

This study included 406 drivers over the age of 64 who were enrolled in a large integrated health plan in the United States between 1991 and 2001. Bivariate analyses and generalized linear modeling were used to examine associations between choosing to walk or drive and respondents' self-reported general health, physical and functional abilities, and confidence in walking and driving.

Results

Having more confidence in their ability to walk versus drive increased an older adult's likelihood of walking to make a short trip by about 20% (PR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06-1.40), and walking for exercise increased the likelihood by about 50% (PR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.22-1.91). Reporting fair or poor health decreased the likelihood of walking, as did cutting down on the amount of driving due to a physical problem.

Discussion

Factors affecting a person's decision to walk for exercise may not be the same as those that influence their decision to walk as a mode of travel. It is important to understand the barriers to walking for exercise and walking for travel to develop strategies to help older adults meet both their exercise and mobility needs. Impact on Industry: Increasing walking over driving among older adults may require programs that increase confidence in walking and encourage walking for exercise.     

Implications of turnover and trust for safety attitudes and behaviour in work teams

Turnover potentially leads to a new individual being selected into a work team. This study investigated the safety-specific trust which team members place in their organisation’s selection and induction processes, and related this to the perceived risk from new employees. The research was conducted with teams working in forest harvesting, an occupation which has high-turnover, high risk and a high accident rate. Results indicate that trust in induction processes was negatively correlated with perceived risk from a new employee. Team members also engaged in a number of safety ensuring behaviours when a new individual joined the team, and these were related to the level of perceived risk, and how much they cared about their team members’ safety. It is argued that trust in the safety-specific characteristics of an organisation’s selection and induction process may have negative consequences for safety.