A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Hassles on the job: a study of a job intervention with urban bus drivers

Epidemiological, psychophysiological and survey data all converge on the conclusion that driving a bus in an urban area is extremely stressful, posing serious health risks. We show that reductions in job hassles while operating buses largely account for the salutary effects of a job environment intervention designed to lessen traffic congestion, diminish passenger demands on drivers, and generally ease bus operation. This study also makes methodological contributions to the stress and health literature. Independent observers' assessments of changes in job hassles caused by a field intervention predict, in a longitudinal design, multimethodological markers of stress including blood pressure, heart rate, and a standardized self‐report index of stress. The value of utilizing job re‐design studies to more rigorously investigate stress and health is discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Utilisation of phosphorus nutrient content in industrial scale plasmid DNA production: a waste minimisation study

Human gene therapy is currently seeing an increase in the use of plasmid (pDNA)-based vectors as a preferred choice of vehicle for delivery of the therapeutic gene into the body. In this regard, the environmental impacts of the waste streams from the possible industrial scale manufacture of pDNA require more detailed assessment. In this study, an initial assessment was made of the nutrient phosphorus (P) inputs to four fermentation processes recommended for the industrial scale production of pDNA for the purposes of gene therapy. Phosphorus inputs to each of the four selected fermentation processes ranged from approximately 60 mg l^?1 up to 3000 mg l^?1 in the fresh media. However, the spent media waste from each of the processes exhibited only a minor reduction in the phosphorus concentrations indicating minimal uptake of P by the microorganisms. This unutilised excess level of phosphorus nutrient within the waste streams poses a strong potential for environmental impact. Waste minimisation studies were undertaken on one model fermentation process with the aim of reducing unnecessary phosphorus input. An optimised media containing a 98% reduction in added P to the media was developed. This phosphorus-minimised media had little quantitative effect upon cell biomass produced and no effect upon the quantity or quality of pDNA produced, relative to the control media. The reduction in P requirement results in an overall cost savings of 12% per fermentation batch, would simplify subsequent wastewater treatment and would contribute to slowing the depletion rate of a valuable, finite natural resource.     

Twelve years of assessing the quality of preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic disorders

Objective

Genomics Quality Assessment has provided external quality assessments (EQAs) for preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) for 12 years for eight monogenic diseases to identify sub-optimal PGT strategies, testing and reporting of results, which can be shared with the genomics community to aid optimised standards of PGT services for couples.

Method

The EQAs were provided in two stages to mimic end-to-end protocols. Stage 1 involved DNA feasibility testing of a couple undergoing PGT and affected proband. Participants were required to report genotyping results and outline their embryo testing strategy. Lymphoblasts were distributed for mock embryo testing for stage 2. Submitted clinical reports and haplotyping results were assessed against peer-ratified criteria. Performance was monitored to identify poor performance.

Results

The most common testing methodology was short tandem repeat linkage analysis (59%); however, the adoption of single nucleotide polymorphism-based platforms was observed and a move from blastomere to trophectoderm testing. There was a variation in testing strategies, assigning marker informativity and understanding test limitations, some clinically unsafe. Critical errors were reported for genotyping and interpretation.

Conclusion

EQA provides an overview of the standard of preimplantation genetic testing-M clinical testing and identifies areas of improvement for accurate detection of high-risk embryos.     

Froude scaling limitations in modeling of turbidity currents

The scaling problem associated with the modeling of turbidity currents has been recognized but is yet to be explored systematically. This paper presents an analysis of the dimensionless governing equations of turbidity currents to investigate the scale effect. Three types of flow conditions are considered: (i) conservative density current; (ii) purely depositional turbidity current; and (iii) mixed erosional/depositional turbidity current. Two controlling dimensionless numbers, the Froude number and the Reynolds number, appear in the non-dimensional governing equations. When densimetric Froude similarity is satisfied, the analysis shows that the results would be scale-invariant for conservative density current under the rough turbulent condition. In the case of purely depositional flows, truly scale-invariant results cannot be obtained, as the Reynolds-mediated scale effects appear in the bottom boundary conditions of the flow velocity and sediment fall velocity. However, the scale effect would be relatively modest. The Reynolds effect becomes more significant for erosional or mixed erosional/depositional turbidity currents as Reynolds-mediated scale effects also appear in the sediment entrainment relation. Numerical simulations have been conducted at three different scales by considering densimetric Froude scaling alone as well as combined densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarity. Simulation results confirm that although the scaling of densimetric Froude number alone can produce scale-invariable results for conservative density currents, variations occur in the case of turbidity currents. The results become scale invariant when densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarities are satisfied simultaneously.     

Achieving forest carbon information with higher certainty: A five-part plan

International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.     

The impact of a standard enforcement safety belt law on fatalities and hospital charges in Ohio

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to analyze linked crash and hospital data to determine the effect that enactment of a standard enforcement safety belt law in Ohio would have on hospital charges and direct medical costs due to motor-vehicle crashes, focusing on the impact to the state's Medicaid system.

Method

The linkage and analysis was conducted as part of the Ohio Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) program. Current safety belt usage in Ohio stands at 82% with its secondary enforcement safety belt law.

Results

Assuming an increase in usage to 92% through standard enforcement, over $15.3 million in medical costs to Medicaid for injuries that occur in a single year could be prevented over a 10-year period. Cumulative savings could reach more than $91.2 million during the 10-year period. In addition, 161 fatalities could have been prevented in one year had all unbelted occupants who sustained a fatal injury instead chosen to wear their safety belt.

Summary and Impact on Industry

Clearly, substantial progress can be made in reducing the number of deaths and injuries, as well as medical costs associated with motor-vehicle crashes, by strengthening safety belt laws and increasing safety belt usage in Ohio.