Statistical evaluation of the influence of flow conditions and sampling techniques on water quality data.

The purpose of this study is to statistically evaluate the influence of various sampling methodologies and flow conditions on the quality and comparability of total phosphorus concentration data collected over the course of 27 months at the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) S-65E structure. The data was obtained from the following sampling methodologies: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (Reston, Virginia) equal width increment spatially composite grab samples, USGS replicate samples, SFWMD grab samples, and SFWMD autosampler samples. Both significant and insignificant differences were reported from these comparisons. Parametric and nonparametric standard statistical tests for significance were carried out to evaluate the differences between the data. To avoid invalid conclusions of insignificant differences, we conducted tests for equivalence of the means and variances. The results from the data analysis revealed that both flow conditions and sampling methodology affected the water quality data.     

Sorption and mass fluxes of sulfonated naphthalene formaldehyde condensates in aquifers

Sulfonated naphthalene formaldehyde condensates (SNFC) and their monomeric analogues were used as superplasticizers for cement suspension injections at two tunnel construction sites that are in direct contact with groundwater. Because in one case the aquifer is an important drinking water resource, the behavior of SNFC in the groundwater was carefully investigated. Chemical analyses showed that SNFC leached to the groundwater in concentrations of up to 58 microg/l of total SNFC at a distance of about 60 m down-gradient from the construction site. Of the individual SNFC components, only monomers and oligomers with up to four units could be detected in the groundwater. Oligomers with more than four units did not leach from the cement paste. The leached oligomers were transported in the groundwater at different velocities, which can be explained by sorption experiments. Mass fluxes of SNFC used at the tunnel construction sites were evaluated. Most SNFC were immobilized in the cement, but 5% (w/w) of the applied SNFC were found to leach into the aquifer. This corresponds to a total amount of leached SNFC of approximately 100 kg, of which about 80% are biodegraded in the aquifer and 20% (20 kg) still remain in the groundwater.     

THE IMPACT OF RUNOFF GENERATION MECHANISMS ON THE LOCATION OF CRITICAL SOURCE AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Identifying phosphorus (P) source areas and transport pathways is a key step in decreasing P loading to natural water systems. This study compared the effects of two modeled runoff generation processes ‐ saturation excess and infiltration excess ‐ on total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in 10 catchment streams of a Catskill mountain watershed in southeastern New York. The spatial distribution of runoff from forested land and agricultural land was generated for both runoff processes; results of both distributions were consistent with Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) theory. These spatial runoff distributions were then used to simulate stream concentrations of TP and SRP through a simple equation derived from an observed relation between P concentration and land use; empirical results indicate that TP and SRP concentrations increased with increasing percentage of agricultural land. Simulated TP and SRP stream concentrations predicted for the 10 catchments were strongly affected by the assumed runoff mechanism. The modeled TP and SRP concentrations produced by saturation excess distribution averaged 31 percent higher and 42 percent higher, respectively, than those produced by the infiltration excess distribution. Misrepresenting the primary runoff mechanism could not only produce erroneous concentrations, it could fail to correctly locate critical source areas for implementation of best management practices. Thus, identification of the primary runoff mechanism is critical in selection of appropriate models in the mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Correct representation of runoff processes is also critical in the future development of biogeochemical transport models, especially those that address nutrient fluxes.     

ESTIMATION OF STREAMFLOW,BASE FLOW,AND NITRATE‐NITROGEN LOADS IN IOWA USING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS1

Nineteen variables, including precipitation, soils and geology, land use, and basin morphologic characteristics, were evaluated to develop Iowa regression models to predict total streamflow (Q), base flow (Qb), storm flow (Qs) and base flow percentage (%Qb) in gauged and ungauged watersheds in the state. Discharge records from a set of 33 watersheds across the state for the 1980 to 2000 period were separated into Qb and Qs. Multiple linear regression found that 75.5 percent of long term average Q was explained by rainfall, sand content, and row crop percentage variables, whereas 88.5 percent of Qb was explained by these three variables plus permeability and floodplain area variables. Qs was explained by average rainfall and %Qb was a function of row crop percentage, permeability, and basin slope variables. Regional regression models developed for long term average Q and Qb were adapted to annual rainfall and showed good correlation between measured and predicted values. Combining the regression model for Q with an estimate of mean annual nitrate concentration, a map of potential nitrate loads in the state was produced. Results from this study have important implications for understanding geomorphic and land use controls on streamflow and base flow in Iowa watersheds and similar agriculture dominated watersheds in the glaciated Midwest.     

EIA in a risk society

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was developed and introduced in the 1960s during a time that was dominated by three key societal influences. These were the growth of modern environmental concern, the drive for more rational, scientific and objective environmental decision making and a desire for more public involvement in environmental decision making. The legitimacy of EIA, as a tool to aid decision making, lies in its ability to meet the requirements of all three demands, the chief among these being its ability to be a systematic scientific and rational approach to decision making. Yet today we live in a society that no longer accepts the rationalist model as either possible or desirable. The deference to ‘the expert’ and our trust in science and technology has steadily declined during the period of EIAs development and widespread use. Today, EIA still depends for its legitimacy on its claim to provide a systematic and scientific approach to assessments, while society has moved on. This paper examines this growing divergence and argues that it is time for a major re‐evaluation of the role of EIA in environmental decision making.     

Health effects from the nuclear fuel cycle and other sources in perspective

The data base for each process of the nuclear fuel cycle has been updated as a part of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The BNL Energy System Network Simulator (ESNS) was modified to accommodate the new data, and methodology was developed for estimating population dose and health effects resulting from atmosphere releases of radioactive materials from the nuclear fuel cycle.Estimates of population dose and health effects were made using these new CONAES emission data and the new model for three scenarios out to the year 2000: (1) no reprocessing; (2) reprocessing, 1-year cooling; and (3) reprocessing, 5-year cooling. Results indicate that radon emissions from mining and milling of uranium bearing ores will have greater impacts than any other component in the open nuclear fuel cycle. The estimated number of health effects will depend, to a large extent, on the lung model mechanism assumed to induce cancer; i.e., either the smeared or the unsmeared model. The smear model and the linear relationship predict for scenario 1, 630; for scenario 2, 949; and for scenario 3, 854 lung cancers, respectively, using the new CONAES data.Epidemiologic data from six United States counties were correlated using a new statistical model (described in the text) in order to test the validity of the lung model and the linear relationship. Results do not support the high lung cancer correlations expected from the unsmear model and the linear relationship; therefore, it is concluded that low-dose mechanisms may be different from those developed from high-dose data. The best place to look for effects of low-dose radiation may be the less developed countries because of a reduction in the noise level caused by chemical pollutants.     

CLASSIFICATION OF EVALUATION OF FLOOD FLOW FREQUENCY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: The literature abounds with procedures for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged locations. Unfortunately, the large number of available procedures creates an awesome task for potential users of sorting and selecting a method for immediate use. The objectives of this paper are to present (1) criteria that are necessary to evaluate the usefulness of hydrologic procedures, (2) to present a classification system for categorizing the multitude of procedures that are available, (3) to summarize the findings of the literature review, and (4) to make recommendations on reporting of flood frequency estimation procedures on ungaged watersheds.     

A MODEL FOR ACHIEVING CONSISTENCY FOR COST SHARING IN WATER RESOURCE PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Three basic principles of responsibility have influenced the Federal/non-Federal cost sharing rates for water resources programs (1) full payment by beneficiaries (2) exclusive Federal assumption of costs and (3) joint Federal/non-Federal sharing. The efforts to determine appropriate cost sharing rates have resulted in several hundred complex arrangements involving contributions, user charges and direct sales based on many variations of payment terms. This basic present value model was developed to determine the non-Federal cost shares which are expected to be paid for 32 different functional purposes emanating from Federal water resources programs and projects for both implementation and OMR stages. The model introduces the concept of a composite (implementation plus OMR) cost share as a focus developing appropriate cost sharing rates for the private, public and mixed outputs produced through public water resources investments. The model can be used as a focus for policy decisions on cost sharing which seek to achieve consistent and equitable cost shares for purposes provided while maintaining an efficient allocation of resources within water programs.     

DECISION ANALYSIS FOR THE RIVER WALK EXPANSION IN SAN ANTONIO,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The San Antonio River Walk is considered a unique tourist attraction as well as an urban rejuvenation catalyst for San Antonio, Texas. This utilization of the mile-long horseshoe bend in the downtown area of San Antonio is as successful and imaginative as can be found in the United States. Testimony is very strong from San Antonio voters and outside visitors of the great social and economic value of the River Walk. This overwhelming success has led to plans for expansion of the present River Walk. The River Walk expansion decision should not be evaluated merely on a benefit-cost ratio. It has become the recommendation of the Water Resources Council that intangible attributes such as recreational values and social impacts should be considered as well as tangible attributes such as cost. This prevailing attitude has highlighted the application of decision analysis techniques with multiattribute utility ratings. Decision analysis is a systematic solution procedure which can be used to crystallize a complicated decision problem into manageable subproblems by ranking the decision alternatives in accordance with cardinal utility values attached to their consequences. Recent advances in multiattribute utility theory allow a decision maker to weigh utility assessment over tangible and intangible attributes according to their relative importance. This insures that the intangible attributes will receive due consideration in the final decision-making.