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Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
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Jürgen Breitung Dirk Bruns-Nagel Eberhard von Löw Klaus Steinbach Lothar Kaminski Rainer Haas Diethard Gemsa 《Environmental Sciences Europe》1995,7(4):195-200
Within the limits of a feasability study abouton-site bioremediation methods for TNT-contaminated soils, composting was chosen as a very promising and cheap method. This method was critically compared with those described in the literature and was primarily rated under ecotoxicological aspects. The investigated location is the former munition plant «Tanne» in the aerea of Clausthal-Zellerfeld in Lower Saxony, Germany. To estimate the autochtonic microflora, we assessed the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria and determined their respiration activity in soils. In addition, we isolated bacteria and examined their capacity to metabolize TNTin vitro. Both the amount of autochtonic microrganisms (4.7×108 to 1.2×1010 colony forming units (cfu)/kg dryweight) as well as their respiration activity did not correlate with the concentrations of nitrotoluenes in the soils. With high contaminated soil (20 g TNT/kg dry weight) we carried out a small compost in the range of 10 liters. During 28 days of composting TNT-concentration decrease over 90% and only minor amounts of monoaminodinitrotoluenes were generated. However, an acidic pretreatment of the compost material at the end of the reaction showed that TNT could be partially resolved under these extreme conditions and that an ecotoxicological risk may still exist. Possible changes in the realization of the composting process in order to make sure that the contaminants are savely bound to the humin matrix are discussed. 相似文献
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Marc Trimborn Rolf-Dieter Wegner Holger Tönnies Nanette Sarioglu Matthias Albig Heidemarie Neitzel 《黑龙江环境通报》2006,26(3):273-276
We describe the first prenatally detected case of a small de novo interstitial duplication of chromosome 16q. This chromosomal aberration is extremely rare. Amniocentesis was indicated by advanced maternal age only. Ultrasound examinations of the foetus showed no abnormalities. Conventional and molecular cytogenetic analyses on cultured amniocytes by comparative genomic hybridisation (CGH) and fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) using partial chromosome paints and a locus-specific YAC clone revealed a de novo direct duplication of the chromosomal region 16q11.2-q13 leading to a partial trisomy 16q (46,XX,dup(16)(q11.2q13)). There are only five postnatal reports of comparable duplications involving this chromosomal region. These patients presented with little or no associated dysmorphic features but with significant neurodevelopmental delay and severe behavioural problems. After genetic counselling, the parents opted for termination of pregnancy. Post-mortem examination showed slight facial dysmorphic signs, minor dysgenesis of the ovaries and an atypical outflow of the arteria thyroidea ima. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Walter R Stahel 《中国人口.资源与环境(英文版)》2007,5(4):3-19
From an economic point of view, the industrial economy is efficient to overcome situations of a scarcity of goods. From a technological point of view, the resource efficiency of the manufacturing processes of the industrial economy has been permanently improved during the last 200 years. In addition, cleaner processes have been developed. However, from an ecologic point of view, an increasing world population with increasing consumption has produced a "global footprint" which approaches the carrying capacity of the planet. A circular economy and its high-value spin-offs-a lake economy and a performance or functional service economy-can fulfil customers' needs with considerably less resource consumption, less environmental impairment in production and considerably less end-of-life product waste, especially in situations of affluence, when a considerable stock of physical goods and infrastructures exists. Also, in situations of a scarcity of natural resources, both energy and materials, often characterised by rapidly rising resource prices, the economic actors of a circular economy have a high competitive advantage over the actors of the industrial economy, due to much lower procurement costs for materials and energy. From a social point of view, a circular economy increases the number of skilled jobs in regional enterprises. However, the shift from a linear manufacturing economy to a circular or service economy means a change in economic thinking from flow (throughput) management to stock (asset) management: in a manufacturing economy with largely unsaturated markets, total wealth increases through accumulation as resource throughput (flow) is transformed into a higher stock of goods of better quality (but in a manufacturing economy with largely saturated markets, wealth represented by the stock of goods will no longer increase); in a circular or service economy, total wealth increases through a smart management of existing physical assets (stock) that are adapted to changes in both technology and customer demand. This second approach not only applies to physical capital but equally to social capital, such as health and education and green GDP. To measure the social wealth of a population, it is not the amount of money spent on schools and hospitals that matters, butif this expenditure has led to a better education of the students, and a better health of the people. 相似文献
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Sofie Adolfsson Jörby 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2002,45(2):219-244
Four small- to medium-sized municipalities in the south-east of Sweden were chosen for a 5-year study of their Local Agenda 21 (LA21) processes. The study shows that the LA21 processes have instigated many new ideas, brought fields together and introduced new subjects into the municipal world. In the decisions of the local governments environmental considerations are treated seriously. There are signs of an extended dialogue and of public influence, especially within fields where citizens are directly involved. LA21 does not seem to have great influence on which natural resources are dealt with, but does on how they are dealt with. New stakeholders within and outside the municipal organization have been identified through the LA21 processes, and more comprehensive ways of solving problems and a positive climate for testing new ideas have been created. In these respects LA21 has been and will be a significant support to the development of appropriate natural resource management at the local level. 相似文献