Minimum viable metapopulation size, extinction debt, and the conservation of a declining species.

A key question facing conservation biologists is whether declines in species' distributions are keeping pace with landscape change, or whether current distributions overestimate probabilities of future persistence. We use metapopulations of the marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia in the United Kingdom as a model system to test for extinction debt in a declining species. We derive parameters for a metapopulation model (incidence function model, IFM) using information from a 625-km2 landscape where habitat patch occupancy, colonization, and extinction rates for E. aurinia depend on patch connectivity, area, and quality. We then show that habitat networks in six extant metapopulations in 16-km2 squares were larger, had longer modeled persistence times (using IFM), and higher metapopulation capacity (lambdaM) than six extinct metapopulations. However, there was a > 99% chance that one or more of the six extant metapopulations would go extinct in 100 years in the absence of further habitat loss. For 11 out of 12 networks, minimum areas of habitat needed for 95% persistence of metapopulation simulations after 100 years ranged from 80 to 142 ha (approximately 5-9% of land area), depending on the spatial location of habitat. The area of habitat exceeded the estimated minimum viable metapopulation size (MVM) in only two of the six extant metapopulations, and even then by only 20%. The remaining four extant networks were expected to suffer extinction in 15-126 years. MVM was consistently estimated as approximately 5% of land area based on a sensitivity analysis of IFM parameters and was reduced only marginally (to approximately 4%) by modeling the potential impact of long-distance colonization over wider landscapes. The results suggest a widespread extinction debt among extant metapopulations of a declining species, necessitating conservation management or reserve designation even in apparent strongholds. For threatened species, metapopulation modeling is a potential means to identify landscapes near to extinction thresholds, to which conservation measures can be targeted for the best chance of success.     

Amorphous oxides of manganese as new sorbents of strontium ions

Samples with the best adsorption properties are selected as a result of investigations conducted on synthesis of manganese-dioxide-based materials and study of their physicochemical properties. Materials were selected on the basis of their low cost and the simplicity of their production technology. In the laboratory the synthesis and analyses of materials was carried out for selected samples. The sorption of a series of elements is studied for a more detailed investigation of materials obtained. The results obtained will promote the synthesis of materials with improved adsorption properties with the aim of their application for purification of water from strontium. It is shown that the most promising way for amendment of manganese oxide is modification of this material using acid-resistant oxides. These oxides are also less expensive than existing sorbents for strontium.     

Chemical and physical properties of dry flue gas desulfurization products

Beneficial and environmentally safe recycling of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) products requires detailed knowledge of their chemical and physical properties. We analyzed 59 dry FGD samples collected from 13 locations representing four major FGD scrubbing technologies. The chemistry of all samples was dominated by Ca, S, Al, Fe, and Si and strong preferential partitioning into the acid insoluble residue (i.e., coal ash residue) was observed for Al, Ba, Be, Cr, Fe, Li, K, Pb, Si, and V. Sulfur, Ca, and Mg occurred primarily in water- or acid-soluble forms associated with the sorbents or scrubber reaction products. Deionized water leachates (American Society for Testing and Materials [ASTM] method) and dilute acetic acid leachates (toxicity characteristic leaching procedure [TCLP] method) had mean pH values of >11.2 and high mean concentrations of S primarily as SO(2-)4 and Ca. Concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Hg, Pb, and Se (except for ASTM Se in two samples) were below drinking water standards in both ASTM and TCLP leachates. Total toxicity equivalents (TEQ) of dioxins, for two FGD products used for mine reclamation, were 0.48 and 0.53 ng kg(-1). This was similar to the background level of the mine spoil (0.57 ng kg(-1)). The FGD materials were mostly uniform in particle size. Specific surface area (m2 g(-1)) was related to particle size and varied from 1.3 for bed ash to 9.5 for spray dryer material. Many of the chemical and physical properties of these FGD samples were associated with the quality of the coal rather than the combustion and SO2 scrubbing processes used.     

WATER AND THE ENERGY CRISIS1

ABSTRACT: Water and energy are inextricably bound. Energy is consumed and sometimes produced by every form of water resources system. Opportunities for future development and production of energy resources abound as well as those for significant reductions in energy consumption through wise water development and management. Technological, political, social, economic and environmental factors interrelate in the energy-water mix. The role of the water resources planner will have to be expanded to include assessment of water-energy impacts in addition to traditional planning considerations. An energy conservation account may well have to be added to the dimensions of national economic development and environmental quality in water resources planning. Ways must be found to reduce amounts and rates of water used and energy consumed through new manufacturing processes, improved irrigation practices, better management, new or altered social-political-economic arrangements and other procedures. To do this will require setting priorities and making difficult management decisions. The water fraternity can play a major role in alleviating the energy crisis we now face.     

USER-ORIENTED RESEARCH DESIGNS1

ABSTRACT: A user-oriented research plan is presented herein. Its principal components are: (1) a mechanism for identifying social goals and translating them into research objectives; (2) procedures for setting priorities; (3) a program planning technique for designing projects to impact on important research objectives; (4) a mechanism for coordinating research activities of important research producers; (5) a structure for encouraging and establishing interdisciplinary team efforts when they are required; (6) a well-coordinated technology transfer plan; and (7) an effective method for promoting and sustaining user-researcher cooperation. Both basic and applied research designs are examined and criteria presented. The implementation of research plans is also discussed and various factors which play a role in implementation are outlined including: coordination, goal interpretation and priority setting, project Planning, Project review, interdisciplinary considerations and the user-researcher interface.     

IMPACT OF COAL SURFACE MINING AND RECLAMATION ON SURFACE WATER CHEMICAL CONCENTRATIONS AND LOAD RATES IN THREE OHIO WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Information is lacking on the watershed scale effects of mining and reclaiming originally undisturbed watersheds for coal on surface water chemical concentrations and load rates for a variety of constituents. These effects were evaluated on three small, geologically dissimilar watersheds subjected to surface mining in Ohio. Comparisons were made between phases of land disturbances using ratios of average concentrations and load rates: Phase 1 (natural), subphases of Phase 2 (mining and reclamation), and subphases of Phase 3 (partial reclamation and final condition) using 4,485 laboratory analyses of 34 constituents. Average concentration and load rate ratios were categorized into three classes—minor, moderate, and substantial. Mining and reclamation (M/R) affected flow duration curves in different ways‐baseflow changes were variable, but high flows generally increased. The average concentration ratios for all sites were classified as 15 percent “minor,” 36 percent “moderate,” and 49 percent “substantial” (average ratio of 2.4.) Generally load rate ratios increased due to mining and reclamation activities (average ratio of 3.3). Minor, moderate, and substantial impacts were found on average for 7 percent, 23 percent, and 70 percent, respectively, of load rate ratios. The impact of M/R on average load rates was not necessarily the same as on average concentrations due to changed hydrology and can be opposite in effect. The evaluation of the impacts of M/R requires knowledge of changing hydrologic conditions and changing supplies and rates of release of chemicals into streams. Median sediment concentration ratio is an indicator of average constituent load rate ratio of a wide variety of chemical constituents and is useful for development of best management practices to reduce chemical loads. The site at which diversion ditches were not removed during final reclamation sustained large chemical load rates, and removal of diversions at the other mined site reduced load rates. Revegetation of poorly reclaimed areas decreased chemical load rates. Chemical load rates were sensitive to geology, mining, and reclamation methods, diversions, and changing hydrology, concentration flow rate regressions, and watershed areas.     

Modeling negative affectivity and job stress: a contingency‐based approach

Understanding the role of negative affectivity (NA) in relations between job stressors and resultant strains has been a major source of research interest in the organizational literature for almost two decades. In this study, we propose a contingency approach, whereby the role of NA depends on the nature of the strain construct under investigation. Specifically, we predicted that perceived job stressors would fully mediate the relationship between NA and turnover intentions, while job stressors would only partially mediate the relationship between NA and job and life satisfaction, and job stressors would be unrelated to depression once NA was taken into account. The relative fit of these four models is tested utilizing data from two divergent samples (sales representatives and managers) employing both self‐ and informant reports of strain measures where feasible. Hypotheses regarding the specified nature of the NA → stressor → strain relationship generally were supported and replicated across samples. In addition, an alternate model specifying that NA moderates the relationship between stressors and strains was not supported for any strain variable. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beyond Counting Climate Consensus

Several studies have been using quantified consensus within climate science as an argument to foster climate policy. Recent efforts to communicate such scientific consensus attained a high public profile but it is doubtful if they can be regarded successful. We argue that repeated efforts to shore up the scientific consensus on minimalist claims such as “humans cause global warming” are distractions from more urgent matters of knowledge, values, policy framing and public engagement. Such efforts to force policy progress through communicating scientific consensus misunderstand the relationship between scientific knowledge, publics and policymakers. More important is to focus on genuinely controversial issues within climate policy debates where expertise might play a facilitating role. Mobilizing expertise in policy debates calls for judgment, context and attention to diversity, rather than deferring to formal quantifications of narrowly scientific claims.     

Dispersal, pair formation and social structure in gibbons (Hylobates lar)

We report observations on reproduction, natal dispersal, pair formation, and group structure based on longitudinal observations of several white-handed gibbon (Hylobates lar) groups spanning 18 years. Our observations are at odds with the traditional view that gibbons live in nuclear family groups consisting of a pair of adults and their offspring, and that parents exclude young from the family territory when they reach adult size. In the relatively dense Khao Yai study population, dispersing young usually obtain mates by replacing adults in existing territories, which creates non-nuclear families. Six subadults, five males and one female, matured and dispersed at an average age of 10 years, or about 2 years after reaching adult size. Average natal dispersal distance was 710 m, or between one and two territories away. At least two dispersing males replaced adults in neighboring groups. In one case, forcible displacement of the resident male resulted in a group which included a young juvenile presumably fathered by the previous male, two younger juveniles (probably brothers) from the new male's original group, and (later) offspring of the new pair. Social relations within this heterogeneous group remained harmonious: the adults groomed all the young and play occurred between all preadult members. In only two out of a total of seven cases of dispersal seen did two subadults pair and disperse into new territorial space. Nonreproducing subadults which delay dispersal may be tolerated by the adults provided that they contribute benefits to the adults or their offspring. Possible benefits include behaviors such as grooming, social play with juveniles, and support of the adult male in defending the territory. Delayed dispersal is probably advantageous in a saturated environment where there is no room for floaters, but subadults may also gain indirect fitness benefits by aiding siblings and other relatives. Received: 24 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 12 January 1998     

An Analysis of Regional Haze Using Tracers of Opportunity

A two-year record of hourly concentrations of halocarbon tracers (methylchloroform and perchloroethylene) and hourly averages of particle light scattering (B_sp) has been analyzed In an effort to understand the sources of haze In the U.S. southwestern deserts and mountains. Measurements were taken on top of Spirit Mountain in southern Nevada. In conjunction with photographs used to interpret visual quality, haze episodes at Spirit Mountain were usually coincident with elevated concentrations of tracers originating from urban sources. Haze obscured an 88-km-distant mountain 17 percent of the total observation time. Of those Incidents, 69 percent were associated with long-range transport of haze from the Los Angeles Basin.