A methodology for estimation of vehicle emissions in an urban environment: an example from Greater Manchester

Road transport is a major contributor to urban air pollution. The introduction of local air qua lity management in the UK will require objective test procedures to evaluate and prioritise the air pollution benefits of existing transport systems and proposed developments. This methodology has been developed to assist the land use and transport planning professionals in evaluating current and potential future impacts on air quality. The method couples an emissions estimation procedure to a traffic flow database. It requires data on emission factors, the composition of the vehicle fleet, vehicle control technologies and the daily traffic flow profile. With these data, it is possible to generate emission estimates per kilometre, link or road as selected by the user. Forecasts can be made by varying input variables. The current methodology allows prediction of five or more pollutant species/classes, limited only by availability of emission factors. The method utilises a commercially available personal computer based spreadsheet. Further coupling of the method to a geographical information system will improve the decision support capability of the method.     

Community attitudes to cystic fibrosis carrier testing in England: A pilot study

Inexpensive and accurate carrier testing for cystic fibrosis (CF) will be possible in the near future. There are no existing studies on the attitudes of English persons in the community to carrier testing for CF or any other recessive disorder. We have conducted a trial study of 166 persons at two schools, two doctors' surgeries, and a family planning clinic. Only a minority had clear pre-existing knowledge of cystic fibrosis and its genetic nature. However, over 80 per cent of those questioned expressed interest in knowing their carrier status. Although it is well known that uptake can only be assessed when a service is in place, and while further studies are required to confirm that testing will be of interest to couples of reproductive age with no previous knowledge of CF, the data strongly suggest that there will be interest in communitywide testing for CF carrier status when such a test becomes available in the United Kingdom.     

Estimating Population Size in a Continuous-time Removal Experiment with a Known Sub-population Size Ratio

We study a continuous-time removal model for estimating the population size for a population in which a sub-population size ratio is known. The maximum likelihood estimate and the optimal martingale estimate of the population size are obtained; these are shown to be equivalent. A comparison between the proposed estimator and the maximum likelihood estimate which ignores the information on the known size ratio is made, using a simulation study. The asymptotic variances of these two estimators are also obtained, and a comparison between them is made. The sensitivity of mis-specification of the known size ratio is examined. We also apply the corresponding discrete-time model to the proposed continuous-time setting, and study the efficiency of the corresponding discrete-time type estimator relative to the proposed estimator.     

Estimating middle-, neighborhood-, and urban-scale contributions to elemental carbon in Mexico City with a rapid response aethalometer.

A successive moving average subtraction method is developed and applied to black carbon measured over 5-min intervals at a downtown location near many small emitters and at a suburban residential site within the urban plume but distant from specific emitters. Short-duration pulses assumed to originate from nearby sources are subtracted from the concentrations at each site and are summed to estimate middle-scale (approximately 0.1-1 km) contributions. The difference of the remaining baselines at the urban and suburban monitors is interpreted as the contribution to the downtown monitor from source emissions mixed over a neighborhood scale (1-5 km). The baseline at the suburban site is interpreted as the contribution of the mixture of black carbon sources for the entire city. When applied to a 24-day period from February and March 1997 in Mexico City, the analysis showed that 65% of the 24-hr black carbon was part of the urban mixture, 23% originated in the neighborhood surrounding the monitor, and only 12% was contributed from nearby sources. These analyses indicate that a fixed-site monitor can reasonably represent exposures in its surrounding neighborhood even when many local sources, such as exhaust from diesel buses and trucks, affect the monitor.     

Analysis of temporal and spatial dichotomous PM air samples in the El Paso-Cd. Juarez air quality basin.

This paper presents and discusses the results obtained from the gravimetric and chemical analyses of the 24-hr average dichotomous samples collected from five sites in the El Paso-Cd. Juarez air quality basin between August 1999 and March 2000. Gravimetric analysis was performed to determine the temporal and spatial variations of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in diameter) and PM25-10 (particulate matter less than 10 pm but greater than 2.5 microm in diameter) mass concentrations. The results indicate that approximately 25% of the PM10 (i.e., PM25 + PM25-10) concentration is composed of PM2.5. Concurrent measurements of hourly PM concentrations and wind speed showed strong diurnal patterns of the regional PM pollution. Results of X-ray fluorescence (XRF) elemental analyses were compared to similar but limited studies performed by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) in 1990 and 1997. Major elements from geologic sources-Al, Si, Ca, Na, K, Fe, and Ti-accounted for 35% of the total mass concentrations in the PM2.5-10 fraction, indicating that geologic sources in the area are the dominant PM sources. Levels of toxic trace elements, mainly considered as products of anthropogenic activities, have decreased significantly from those observed in 1990 and 1997.     

Aerosol chemical and optical properties during the Mt. Zirkel Visibility Study

Aerosol chemical and optical properties were measured near the Mt. Zirkel Wilderness Area in northwestern Colorado. Six-hour PM2.5 (particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 microm) mass concentrations and PM2.5 dry particle light scattering at 550 nm averaged 4.6 microg m(-3) and 8.6 Mm(-1), respectively. Sulfates, organic carbon, and geological material were the principle components of particle mass and light scattering. Hygroscopic growth was consistent with that expected for ammonium sulfate aerosols. Size distributions derived from three-wavelength (i.e., 450, 550, and 700 nm) nephelometer data were similar to those measured in other remote areas of the western USA. Quasi-dry chemical light scattering efficiencies derived using Mie theory were 3.6 m2 g(-1) for organic carbon, 2.5 m2 g(-1) for sulfates (ammonium sulfate and ammonium bisulfate), 2.6 m2 g(-1) for ammonium nitrate, and 1.76 m2 g(-1) for geological material. These values are lower than but consistent with previously reported results. Realistic efficiencies could not be derived using the multiple linear regression (MLR) approach.