Precipitation Modeling by Polyhedral RCMARS and Comparison with MARS and CMARS

Climate change is becoming an ever important issue due to the possibility that it may result in extreme weather events such as floods or droughts. Consequently, precipitation forecasting has similarly gained in significance as it is a useful tool in meeting the increasing need for the efficient management of water resources as well as in preventing disasters before they happen. In the literature, there are various statistical and computational methods used for this purpose, including linear and nonlinear regression, kriging, time series models, neural networks, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Among them, MARS stands out as the better performing precipitation modeling method. In this article, we used a recently developed method called robust conic mars (RCMARS), based on MARS (also on CMARS), to forecast precipitation owing to its ability to model complex uncertain data. In CMARS, which was developed as a powerful alternative to MARS, the model complexity is penalized in the form of Tikhonov regularization and studied as a conic quadratic programming. In RCMARS, on the other hand, CMARS is refined further by including the existence of uncertainty in the future scenarios and robustifying it with a robust optimization technique. To evaluate the performance of the RCMARS method, it was applied to build a precipitation model constructed as an early warning system for the continental Central Anatolia Region of Turkey, where drought has been a recurrent phenomenon for the last few decades. Furthermore, the performance of the RCMARS precipitation model was also compared to that of MARS and CMARS. The results indicated that RCMARS builds more accurate, precise, and stable precipitation models compared to those of MARS and CMARS. In addition to these advantageous features of the RCMARS precipitation model, it also provided a good fit to the data. As a result, we propose its use in precipitation forecasting for the region studied.     

A New Mathematical Approach in Environmental and Life Sciences: Gene–Environment Networks and Their Dynamics

An important research area in life sciences is devoted to modeling, prediction, and dynamics of gene-expression patterns. As clearly understood in these days, this enterprise cannot become satisfactory without acknowledging the role of the environment. To a representation of past, present, and most likely future states, we also encounter measurement errors and uncertainties. This paper surveys and improves recent advances in understanding the foundations and interdisciplinary implications of the newly introduced gene–environment networks, and it integrates the important theme of carbon dioxide emission reduction into the networks and dynamics. We also introduce some operational and managerial issues of practical working and decision making, expressed in terms of sliding windows, quadrants (modules) of parametric effects, and navigating (controlling) between such effects and directing them. Given data from DNA microarray experiments and environmental records, we extract nonlinear ordinary differential equations that contain parameters that have to be determined. For this, we employ modern (Chebychevian) approximation and (generalized semi-infinite) optimization. After this is provided, time- discretized dynamical systems are studied. A combinatorial algorithm with polyhedra sequences allows to detect the region of parametric stability. Finally, we analyze the topological landscape of gene–environment networks with its structural (in)stability. By embedding as a module and investigating CO₂ emission control and figuring out game theoretical aspects, we conclude. This pioneering work is theoretically elaborated, practically devoted to health care, medicine, education, living conditions, and environmental protection, and it invites the readers to future research.      

Recommendations on chemicals management policy and legislation in the framework of the Egyptian–German twinning project on hazardous substances and waste management

The sustainable management of chemicals and their associated wastes—especially legacy stockpiles—is always challenging. Developing countries face particular difficulties as they often have insufficient treatment and disposal capacity, have limited resources and many lack an appropriate and effective regulatory framework. This paper describes the objectives and the approach of the Egyptian–German Twinning Project under the European Neighbourhood Policy to improve the strategy of managing hazardous substances in the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) between November 2008 and May 2011. It also provides an introduction to the Republic of Egypt’s legal and administrative system regarding chemical controls. Subsequently, options for a new chemical management strategy consistent with the recommendations of the United Nations Chemicals Conventions are proposed. The Egyptian legal and administrative system is discussed in relation to the United Nations’ recommendations and current European Union legislation for the sound management of chemicals. We also discuss a strategy for the EEAA to use the existing Egyptian legal system to implement the United Nations’ Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals, the Stockholm Convention and other proposed regulatory frameworks. The analysis, the results, and the recommendations presented may be useful for other developing countries in a comparable position to Egypt aspiring to update their legislation and administration to the international standards of sound management of chemicals.     

Leaching of seven pesticides currently used in cotton crop in Mato Grosso State—Brazil

This study aimed to evaluate the leaching of pesticides and the applicability of the Attenuation Factor (AF) Model to predict their leaching. The leaching of carbofuran, carbendazim, diuron, metolachlor, α and β endosulfan and chlorpyrifos was studied in an Oxisol using a field experiment lysimeter located in Dom Aquino – Mato Grosso. The samples of percolated water were collected by rain event and analyzed. Chemical and physical soil attributes were determined before pesticide application to the plots. The results showed that carbofuran was the pesticide that presented a higher leaching rate in the studied soil, so was the one representing the highest contamination potential. From the total carbofuran applied in the soil surface, around 6 % leached below 50 cm. The other pesticides showed lower mobility in the studied soil. The calculated values to AF were 7.06E-12 (carbendazim), 5.08E-03 (carbofuran), 3.12E-17 (diuron), 6.66E-345 (α-endosulfan), 1.47E-162 (β-endosulfan), 1.50E-06 (metolachlor), 3.51E-155 (chlorpyrifos). AF Model was useful to classify the pesticides' potential for contamination; however, that model underestimated pesticide leaching.     

Dredging impact on an urbanized Florida bayou: effects on benthos and algal-periphyton.

Environmental effects of dredging events have been uncommonly reported for shallow, residential estuaries characteristic of the Gulf of Mexico region. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of hydraulic dredging on an urbanized estuary. Physicochemical quality, benthic community composition, whole sediment toxicity, periphytic algal community composition and trace metal tissue quality were determined prior to and after dredging. The effects on surface water pH, dissolved oxygen, and temperature were negligible but photosynthetically active radiation was decreased at several stations. Dredging significantly reduced benthic diversity and density (P < 0.05). However, the sediments were not acutely toxic to the epibenthic, Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia); survival averaged 93% (post-dredging) and to 98% (pre-dredging). There were several post-dredging taxonomic structural changes in the diatom-dominated, periphyton community but differences in mean density and three diversity indices were not significant. Trace metal concentration in periphyton after dredging were reduced from an average of 4-65% and significantly for mercury, zinc and chromium in several areas. It was concluded that the environmental impact of small-scale dredging events in urbanized near-coastal areas, based on the selected parameters, are likely to be localized and of short-term environmental consequence. The choice of the target biota, response parameters and chemical analysis are important considerations in the environmental impact assessment of these periodic episodic events.     

Assessment of five bioaccessibility assays for predicting the efficacy of petroleum hydrocarbon biodegradation in aged contaminated soils

In this study, the bioaccessibility of petroleum hydrocarbons in aged contaminated soils (1.6-67gkg(-1)) was assessed using four non-exhaustive extraction techniques (100% 1-butanol, 100% 1-propanol, 50% 1-propanol in water and hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin) and the persulfate oxidation method. Using linear regression analysis, residual hydrocarbon concentrations following bioaccessibility assessment were compared to residual hydrocarbon concentrations following biodegradation in laboratory-scale microcosms in order to determine whether bioaccessibility assays can predict the endpoint of hydrocarbon biodegradation. The relationship between residual hydrocarbon concentrations following microcosm biodegradation and bioaccessibility assessment was linear (r(2)=0.71-0.97) indicating that bioaccessibility assays have the potential to predict the extent of hydrocarbon biodegradation. However, the slope of best fit varied depending on the hydrocarbon fractional range assessed. For the C(10)-C(14) hydrocarbon fraction, the slope of best fit ranged from 0.12 to 0.27 indicating that the non-exhaustive or persulfate oxidation methods removed 3.5-8 times more hydrocarbons than biodegradation. Conversely, for the higher molecular weight hydrocarbon fractions (C(29)-C(36) and C(37)-C(40)), biodegradation removed up to 3.3 times more hydrocarbons compared to bioaccessibility assays with the resulting slope of best fit ranging from 1.0-1.9 to 2.0-3.3 respectively. For mid-range hydrocarbons (C(15)-C(28)), a slope of approximately one was obtained indicating that C(15)-C(28) hydrocarbon removal by these bioaccessibility assays may approximate the extent of biodegradation. While this study demonstrates the potential of predicting biodegradation endpoints using bioaccessibility assays, limitations of the study include a small data set and that all soils were collected from a single site, presumably resulting from a single contamination source. Further evaluation and validation is required using soils from a range of hydrocarbon contamination sources in order to develop robust assays for predicting bioremediation endpoints in the field.     

Migratory fuelling in blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) under perceived risk of predation

It has been argued that the body mass levels achieved by birds are determined by the trade-off between risks of starvation and predation. Birds have also been found to reduce body mass in response to an increased predation risk. During migration, the need of extra fuel for flights is obvious and crucial. In this study, migratory blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) were subject to an experimental stopover situation where the predation risk was manipulated by exposure to a stuffed predator. Blackcaps that perceived an imminent risk of predation increased their food intake and fuel deposition rate during the first period of stopover compared with a control group. The pattern of night activity indicates that birds that were exposed to the predator also chose to leave earlier than birds in the control group. Since there was no cover present at the stopover site, birds might have perceived the risk of predation as higher regardless of whether they were foraging or not. Under such circumstances it has been predicted that birds should increase their foraging activity. The findings in this study clearly indicate that birds are able to adjust their stopover behaviour to perceived predation risk. Received: 8 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 11 April 1997