A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

环境中重金属和有机污染物的物种敏感性分布研究进展

物种敏感性分布法(SSD,Species Sensitivity Distribution)是一种相对于传统评价因子法具有更高置信度的统计学外推方法,在环境质量基准制定及生态风险评价中得到广泛应用。本文对近年来国内外重金属和有机污染物的物种敏感性分布研究成果进行了综述,阐述了在水体、土壤和沉积物等环境介质中应用SSD方法开展生态风险评价的研究现状,从SSD模型选择、毒性数据点筛选等方面对影响SSD模型不确定性的因素进行探讨,并对SSD方法在生态风险评价领域的应用进行了展望。     

纳米铜颗粒的种间毒性关系

纳米颗粒的种间毒性关系尚无明确结论,因此很难判断纳米颗粒对未进行毒性测试的物种的风险如何。本文作者将5种水蚤(Daphnia magna, Daphnia pulex, Daphnia galeata, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Chydorus sphaericus)暴露于4种不同粒径的纳米铜颗粒(CuNPs)和1种亚微米铜颗粒的悬浊液中,考察物种的形态特征与CuNPs急性毒性的关系。结果显示,杆状的CuNPs比球状的CuNPs毒性更低。纳米铜颗粒与溶出铜离子均对CuNPs的毒性有贡献,其中,当新生蚤的体长、体表面积和身体体积更小时,5种悬浊液中颗粒的毒性更大。5种蚤的身体体积与5种CuNPs的毒性显著相关(r_adj²>0.51, p < 0.001),78-nm CuNPs与蚤身体体积的相关性最好 (r_adj²?=?0.95, p < 0.001)。这个研究可以为纳米颗粒对有相似外形特征的物种进行毒性种间外推提供线索。
精选自Lan Song, Martina G. Vijver, Geert R. de Snoo and Willie J.G.M. Peijnenburg. Assessing toxicity of copper nanoparticles across five cladoceran species. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3000
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3000/full     

A pilot study on the effect of Cu,Zn, and Cd on the spectral curves and chlorophyll of wheat canopy at tiller stage

The aim of this study was to investigate canopy spectral reflectance responses to different levels of heavy metals copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) induced stress. Random blocks design experiment was conducted to simulate Cu, Zn, and Cd at five concentration levels. Chlorophyll and visible and near infrared canopy reflectance were measured for each treatment 56 days after seeding using chlorophyll meter SPAD-502 and spectroradiometer, respectively. New vegetative indices termed ratio of inclination angles (RIA), MERIS (the medium resolution imaging spectrometer) terrestrial chlorophyll index (MTCI), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to assess the response of canopy spectral reflectance to different heavy metal levels. Significant spectral variability especially in blue, red, and near infrared reflectance was observed for different heavy metal treatments. One-sample test showed significant difference for NDVI, MTCI, and RIA among five-level treatments at the 0.01 level. Correlation analysis demonstrated that the two vegetative indices (RIA and MTCI) were significantly correlated with chlorophyll meter values for Cd, Cu, and Zn treatments. However, NDVI was only significantly correlated with chlorophyll meter values for Cu and Zn treatments. Linear regression analysis also illustrated that RIA and MTCI were potential indices for predicting chlorophyll concentration with significant F test under Cu-, Zn-, and Cd-mediated stress.     

Preparation,characterization, and kinetics of nanoscale iron in nitrate nitrogen removal from polluted water

The aim of this study was to examine the production of nanoscale ions via the liquid phase reduction method and the effectiveness of the removal of nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^?–N) as well as measure the products and kinetics of the reactions. The nanoparticles obtained were approximately 50 nm in diameter and the main component was iron (Fe). This custom-made nanoscale Fe was highly positively charged, and reacted rapidly with NO₃^?–N in oxygen-free and neutral conditions at room temperature. A 90% removal rate was achieved when the reaction occurred for 30 min in simulation sample water with vigorous shaking at 250 r/min at NO₃^?–N concentrations of 30, 50, 80 or120 mg N/L. The nanometer Fe dosage was maintained throughout the experiment at 4 g/L. A first-order kinetics equation was applied to the obtained experimental data which followed a pseudo first-order reaction. Data demonstrated that the removal of nitrate nitrogen from polluted groundwater using a nanoscale Fe iron was effective and rapid.     

浮码头钢趸船防腐涂装体系研究

目的为浮码头钢趸船优选防腐涂装体系,以延长其使用寿命。方法根据钢趸船腐蚀环境特点,对选用的防腐涂料进行对比试验,针对不同的腐蚀环境,优选不同的防腐蚀方案。结果制定了4套与不同腐蚀环境相对应的防腐涂装体系。结论该防腐蚀涂装体系已在上海、青岛、湛江等海域的钢趸船上使用,效果良好。     

2012年-2013年常州市PM2.5空气污染气象条件及天气形势特征分析研究

利用2012年-2013年常州市大气监测资料、2009年-2013年NECP再分析气象资料和日降水资料,对近两年常州市空气污染特征及其与气象条件的关系进行分析.结果表明2013年常州市污染事件相比2012年具有发生频率高、持续时间长和程度重等特点.造成污染天气异常偏多的气象条件是有效降水日异常减少,反映区域混合型PM2.5污染的地面系统不利扩散特征在2013年表现突出,污染高发期地面均压场范围扩大,对流层整层有异常抑制上升作用.典型PM2.5污染个例分析表明重污染天气尺度形势特征主要体现在高压型和冷空气外部输送型,其次为低压和均压场型.     

环境影响评价现状监测管理存在问题及对策研究

目前环境影响评价现状监测管理中存在的缺乏管理体制,监测机构资质能力没有明确规定,环保监测机构无力承担,环评市场存在无序工作状态,监测质量不够理想等5大问题,针对以上问题提出要加强监督管理,明确监测机构的职责及质量管理要求,重视监测方案编制并规范历史监测数据的引用等相应对策,为环境影响评价工作奠定重要的基础,从而保障了环境影响评价结论的科学性和可信度.     

环氧氯丙烷工艺中分离罐气相出口的燃爆危险性分析

环氧氯丙烷生产工艺中双氧水分解产生的氧气与含氯丙烯、环氧氯丙烷、甲醇的可燃气体混合存在燃爆危险,为预防燃爆发生,利用5L爆炸极限测试仪测定分离罐气相出口可燃气在不同氧气浓度条件下的爆炸极限,并以此绘制爆炸极限三元图,得到不同工况条件下"可燃气-氧气-氮气"混合体系的燃爆区域。结果表明:随着氧气浓度的升高,可燃气爆炸上限明显提高,但爆炸下限变化不明显;随温度上升,气相出口组分发生变化,LOC值逐渐降低;正常冷却条件下极限氧含量为12%,冷却效果差时为10%,冷却失效时为9.3%;设置氧浓度报警时参考最小LOC值,留出裕度空间,控制体系氧含量小于5%有助于预防燃爆发生。