Application of a spatial meta-population model with stochastic parameters to the management of the invasive grass Nassella trichotoma in North Canterbury, New Zealand

Optimising the management of invasive plants requires the identification of the population size outcomes for alternative management strategies. Mathematical models can be useful tools for making such management strategy comparisons. In this paper we develop a generic landscape meta-population model and apply it to the weedy grass, Nassella trichotoma, an invasive species occupying approximately 800 land parcels, predominantly pastoral farms, in the Hurunui district, North Canterbury, New Zealand. Empirical evidence reveals that this meta-population is currently stable (at a median density of 6 plants ha⁻¹) under a community strategy requiring manual removal (termed ‘grubbing’) of plants annually from all land parcels. Reduction in population size requires an alternative management strategy. Field data, collected over a 12 year period, were used to provide stochastic parameter values for land parcel size, carrying capacity, rates of local population growth and grubbing.The model reveals that at steady state, the most significant contribution to population growth on a land parcel comes from within the land parcel itself; the expected annual per capita growth on an individual land parcel is 4 orders of magnitude greater than the expected annual contribution from plants arising from other land parcels. This result implies that many of the farms currently supporting N. trichotoma may pose little or no threat to, nor are threatened themselves by, other farms infested by the weed. However, the steady state distribution (of the weed's population density) was sensitive to the spread rate, revealing a need for data on this process. It was also sensitive to how any increase in the grubbing rate is distributed; increasing it via a uniform distribution U(0, 1) where all rates between 0 and 100% year⁻¹ are equally probable did not affect the steady state, whereas increasing the rates via the uniform distribution U(0.25, 0.75) resulted in fewer farms with high population densities. In general the model provides a basis for exploring the effects of a wide range of alternative grubbing strategies on population growth in N. trichotoma.     

Riding the storm: the response of Plantago lanceolata to simulated tidal flooding

Supra-tidal plant communities fulfil a vital role in coastal protection and conservation but despite an increased likelihood of salt-water inundation from storm surges, we understand remarkably little on how salinity affects habitats like coastal grasslands or their component species. We quantified the survival and growth of a common coastal grassland plant, Plantago lanceolata when exposed to short-duration (1-, 2-, 4-, or 8-h) immersion in sea water. We also calculated root:shoot ratios (R:SR) and specific leaf area (SLA) to examine how salinity stress affects above- and below-ground resource allocation patterns and likely interactions with other trophic levels. Immersion in sea water reduced Plantago survival particularly at longer durations of 4- and 8 h, and for surviving plants, growth was also much reduced. Contrary to studies with crop plants however, we found reduced allocation to root biomass (R:SR) and increased SLA. The fact that Plantago displayed opposite ecophysiological responses to those consistently reported in the literature highlights that the response of coastal grassland plants to storm surge events cannot be assumed from conventional wisdom. In order to better protect and conserve these internationally important ecosystems from the effects of anthropogenically induced sea-level rise, a systematic exploration of the effects of sea water flooding on coastal grasslands is required.     

Pesticide modelling for a small catchment using SWAT-2000

Pesticides in stream flow from the 142 ha Colworth catchment in Bedfordshire, UK were monitored from October 1999 to December 2000. About 47% of the catchment is tile-drained and different pesticides and cropping patterns have recently been evaluated in terms of their effect on nutrient and pesticide losses to the stream. The data from Colworth were used to test soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) 2000 predictions of pesticide concentrations at the catchment outlet. A sound model set-up to carry out pesticide modelling was created by means of hydrological modelling with proper simulation of crop growth and evapotranspiration. The pesticides terbuthylazine, terbutryn, cyanazine and bentazone were modelled. There was close agreement between SWAT-predicted pesticide concentration values and observations. Scenario trials were conducted to explore management options for reducing pesticide loads arriving at the catchment outlet. The results obtained indicate that SWAT can be used as a tool to understand pesticide behavior at the catchment scale.     

Mass balance modelling of contaminants in river basins: a flexible matrix approach

A novel and flexible approach is described for simulating the behaviour of chemicals in river basins. A number (n) of river reaches are defined and their connectivity is described by entries in an n x n matrix. Changes in segmentation can be readily accommodated by altering the matrix entries, without the need for model revision. Two models are described. The simpler QMX-R model only considers advection and an overall loss due to the combined processes of volatilization, net transfer to sediment and degradation. The rate constant for the overall loss is derived from fugacity calculations for a single segment system. The more rigorous QMX-F model performs fugacity calculations for each segment and explicitly includes the processes of advection, evaporation, water-sediment exchange and degradation in both water and sediment. In this way chemical exposure in all compartments (including equilibrium concentrations in biota) can be estimated. Both models are designed to serve as intermediate-complexity exposure assessment tools for river basins with relatively low data requirements. By considering the spatially explicit nature of emission sources and the changes in concentration which occur with transport in the channel system, the approach offers significant advantages over simple one-segment simulations while being more readily applicable than more sophisticated, highly segmented, GIS-based models.     

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neo-classical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.     

Developing green infrastructure ‘thinking’: devising and applying an interactive group-based methodology for practitioners

Recent years have witnessed a wave of interest in the concept of green infrastructure (GI) as a means of applying an ecosystem approach to spatial planning practice; however, more limited attention has been paid to decision-making processes or tools to enhance GI within spatial plans and guidance. We address this deficit by reporting on the development and application of an interactive group-based methodology to enhance GI ‘thinking’ and interdisciplinary collaboration, drawing on the literature on the sociology of interactions. Our findings suggest that a game-based approach to GI problem-solving was successful in breaking down professional barriers by creating an informal learning arena, providing an enabling opportunity for participants to solve problems in an iterative, non-linear style to develop principles for action with transferability to ongoing plan formation. This style of problem-solving was characterised by shifting norms and routines of interaction, leading to problem re-framing and a search for alternative solutions.     

Effects of temperature and soil moisture on methyl halide and chloroform fluxes from drained peatland pasture soils

A series of laboratory-based incubations using a stable isotope tracer technique was applied to measure the net and gross fluxes of CH(3)Cl and CH(3)Br as well as the net fluxes of CHCl(3) from surface soils of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California. Annually averaged flux measurements show that these mineral/oxidized peat soils are a net source of CH(3)Cl (140 ± 266 nmol m(-2) d(-1)) and CHCl(3) (258 ± 288 nmol m(-2) d(-1)), and a net sink of CH(3)Br (-2.3 ± 4.5 nmol m(-2) d(-1)). Gross CH(3)Cl and CH(3)Br fluxes are strongly influenced by both soil moisture and temperature: gross production rates of CH(3)Cl and CH(3)Br are linearly correlated with temperature, whereas gross consumption rates exhibit Gaussian relationships with maximum consumption at soil moisture levels between 20 and 30% volumetric water content (VWC) and a temperature range of 25 to 35 °C. Although soil moisture and soil temperature strongly affect consumption rates, the range of gross consumption rates overall is limited (-506 ± 176 nmol m(-2) d(-1) for CH(3)Cl and -12 ± 4 nmol m(-2) d(-1) for CH(3)Br) and is similar to rates reported in previous studies. CHCl(3) fluxes are not correlated with methyl halide fluxes, temperature, or soil moisture. The annual emission rates of CHCl(3) from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta are found to be a potentially significant local source of this compound.     

Dynamic modelling of aquatic exposure and pelagic food chain transfer of cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes in the Inner Oslofjord

The marine fate and pelagic food chain transfer of three cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMS: D4, D5 and D6) was explored in the Inner Oslofjord, Norway, using two dynamic models (the Oslofjord POP Model and the aquatic component of ACC-HUMAN). Predicted concentrations of D4, D5, and D6 in the water column were all less than current analytical detection limits, as was the predicted concentration of D4 in sediment (in agreement with measured data). The concentrations predicted for D5 and D6 in sediment were also in broad agreement with measured concentrations from the Inner Oslofjord. Volatilisation was predicted to be the most important loss mechanism for D5 and D6, whereas hydrolysis was predicted to dominate for D4. Concentrations of all three compounds in sediment are controlled by burial below the active mixed sediment layer. The marine food web model in ACC-HUMAN predicted “trophic dilution” of lipid-normalised cVMS concentrations between zooplankton and herring (Culpea harengus) and between herring and cod (Gadus morhua), principally due to a combination of in-fish metabolism and reduced gut absorption efficiency (as a consequence of high K_OW). Predicted D5 concentrations in herring and cod agree well with measured data from the inner fjord, particularly when measured concentrations in zooplankton were used to set the initial dissolved-phase aqueous concentrations. Predicted concentrations of D4 and D6 in fish were over- and under-estimated by the model – possibly due to extrapolation of the metabolism rate constant from D5.