Wildfire, landscape diversity and the Drossel-Schwabl model

How simple can a model be that still captures essential aspects of wildfire ecosystems at large spatial and temporal scales? The Drossel-Schwabl model (DSM) is a metaphorical forest-fire model developed to reproduce only one pattern of real systems: a frequency distribution of fire sizes resembling a power law. Consequently, and because it appears oversimplified, it remains unclear what bearings the DSM has in reality. Here, we test whether the DSM is capable of reproducing a pattern that was not considered in its design, the hump-shaped relation between the diversity of succession stages and average annual area burnt. We found that the model, once reformulated to represent succession, produces realistic landscape diversity patterns. We investigated four succession scenarios of forest-fire ecosystems in the USA and Canada. In all scenarios, landscape diversity is highest at an intermediate average annual area burnt as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. These results show that a model based solely on the dynamics of the fuel mosaic has surprisingly high predictive power with regard to observed statistical properties of wildfire systems at large spatial scales. Parsimonious models, such as the DSM can be used as starting points for systematic development of more structurally realistic but tractable wildfire models. Due to their simplicity they allow analytical approaches that further our understanding under increasing complexity.     

Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland,Australia

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land.     

Setting rational environmental goals: Five Swedish environmental quality objectives

Goals and performance targets are commonly used as tools in the policy-implementation process. In Sweden, environmental policy is operationalized through a system of environmental quality objectives that were adopted by the Swedish Riksdag in the late 1990s. The objectives describe what level of environmental quality Sweden should aim for within a generation, and are designed to guide decision making in all sectors of society. However, to guide decision making toward improved environmental quality, these objectives should satisfy a set of rationality (functionality) criteria; they should be precise, evaluable, approachable, motivating and coherent. In this paper, five Swedish environmental quality objectives are investigated through an application of the suggested criteria: (1) a balanced marine environment, flourishing coastal areas and archipelagos; (2) a magnificent mountain landscape; (3) a non-toxic environment; (4) natural acidification only; and (5) a good built environment. The aim of the paper is to bring the rationality of the objectives up for discussion, and to illustrate the range of issues and difficulties that are involved in choosing and assessing environmental policy goals.     

A Bayesian approach for understanding the role of ship speed in whale-ship encounters

Mandatory or voluntary reductions in ship speed are a common management strategy for reducing deleterious encounters between large ships and large whales. This has produced strong resistance from shipping and marine transportation entities, in part because very few studies have empirically demonstrated whether or to what degree ship speed influences ship-whale encounters. Here we present the results of four years of humpback whale sightings made by observers aboard cruise ships in Alaska, representing 380 cruises and 891 ship-whale encounters. Encounters occurred at distances from 21 m to 1000 m (x = 567 m) with 61 encounters (7%) occurring between 200 m and 100 m, and 19 encounters (2%) within 100 m. Encounters were spatially aggregated and highly variable across all ship speeds. Nevertheless a Bayesian change-point model found that the relationship between whale distance and ship speed changed at 11.8 knots (6.1 m/s) with whales encountering ships, on average, 114 m closer when ship speeds were above 11.8 knots. Binning encounter distances by 1-knot speed increments revealed a clear decrease in encounter distance with increasing ship speed over the range of 7-17 knots (3.6-8.7 m/s). Our results are the first to demonstrate that speed influences the encounter distance between large ships and large whales. Assuming that the closer ships come to whales the more likely they are to be struck, our results suggest that reduced ship speed may be an effective management action in reducing the probability of a collision.     

Determination of total chlorine and bromine in solid wastes by sintering and inductively coupled plasma-sector field mass spectrometry

A sample preparation method based on sintering, followed by analysis by inductively coupled plasma-sector field mass spectrometry (ICP-SFMS) for the simultaneous determination of chloride and bromide in diverse and mixed solid wastes, has been evaluated. Samples and reference materials of known composition were mixed with a sintering agent containing Na₂CO₃ and ZnO and placed in an oven at 560 °C for 1 h. After cooling, the residues were leached with water prior to a cation-exchange assisted clean-up. Alternatively, a simple microwave-assisted digestion using only nitric acid was applied for comparison. Thereafter the samples were prepared for quantitative analysis by ICP-SFMS. The sintering method was evaluated by analysis of certified reference materials (CRMs) and by comparison with US EPA Method 5050 and ion chromatography with good agreement. Median RSDs for the sintering method were determined to 10% for both chlorine and bromine, and median recovery to 96% and 97%, respectively. Limits of detection (LODs) were 200 mg/kg for chlorine and 20 mg/kg for bromine. It was concluded that the sintering method is suitable for chlorine and bromine determination in several matrices like sewage sludge, plastics, and edible waste, as well as for waste mixtures. The sintering method was also applied for determination of other elements present in anionic forms, such as sulfur, arsenic, selenium and iodine.     

Temporal pessimism and spatial optimism in environmental assessments: An 18-nation study

The personal assessments of the current and expected future state of the environment by 3232 community respondents in 18 nations were investigated at the local, national, and global spatial levels. These assessments were compared to a ranking of each country's environmental quality by an expert panel. Temporal pessimism (“things will get worse”) was found in the assessments at all three spatial levels. Spatial optimism bias (“things are better here than there”) was found in the assessments of current environmental conditions in 15 of 18 countries, but not in the assessments of the future. All countries except one exhibited temporal pessimism, but significant differences between them were common. Evaluations of current environmental conditions also differed by country. Citizens' assessments of current conditions, and the degree of comparative optimism, were strongly correlated with the expert panel's assessments of national environmental quality. Aside from the value of understanding global trends in environmental assessments, the results have important implications for environmental policy and risk management strategies.     

Strong Influence of Variable Treatment on the Performance of Numerically Defined Ecological Regions

Numerical clustering has frequently been used to define hierarchically organized ecological regionalizations, but there has been little robust evaluation of their performance (i.e., the degree to which regions discriminate areas with similar ecological character). In this study we investigated the effect of the weighting and treatment of input variables on the performance of regionalizations defined by agglomerative clustering across a range of hierarchical levels. For this purpose, we developed three ecological regionalizations of Switzerland of increasing complexity using agglomerative clustering. Environmental data for our analysis were drawn from a 400 m grid and consisted of estimates of 11 environmental variables for each grid cell describing climate, topography and lithology. Regionalization 1 was defined from the environmental variables which were given equal weights. We used the same variables in Regionalization 2 but weighted and transformed them on the basis of a dissimilarity model that was fitted to land cover composition data derived for a random sample of cells from interpretation of aerial photographs. Regionalization 3 was a further two-stage development of Regionalization 2 where specific classifications, also weighted and transformed using dissimilarity models, were applied to 25 small scale “sub-domains” defined by Regionalization 2. Performance was assessed in terms of the discrimination of land cover composition for an independent set of sites using classification strength (CS), which measured the similarity of land cover composition within classes and the dissimilarity between classes. Regionalization 2 performed significantly better than Regionalization 1, but the largest gains in performance, compared to Regionalization 1, occurred at coarse hierarchical levels (i.e., CS did not increase significantly beyond the 25-region level). Regionalization 3 performed better than Regionalization 2 beyond the 25-region level and CS values continued to increase to the 95-region level. The results show that the performance of regionalizations defined by agglomerative clustering are sensitive to variable weighting and transformation. We conclude that large gains in performance can be achieved by training classifications using dissimilarity models. However, these gains are restricted to a narrow range of hierarchical levels because agglomerative clustering is unable to represent the variation in importance of variables at different spatial scales. We suggest that further advances in the numerical definition of hierarchically organized ecological regionalizations will be possible with techniques developed in the field of statistical modeling of the distribution of community composition.     

发展一种估算石油工业温室气体排放的一致的方法

要获得有意义的温室气体清单,重要的是清单中包括的内容的方法论和定义应该是一致的.国际石油工业环境保护协会(IPIECA)、国际石油和天然气生产者协会(OGP)以及美国石油学会(API)已经制定了温室气体排放计算和报告的准则.国际石油工业环境保护协会(IPITCA)报告温室气体排放的石油工业指南的重点是放在石油工业温室气体排放的计算和报告上.为了提供排放估算一致的方法论,美国石油工业协会制定了石油和天然气工业温室气体排放估算方法论概要.从美国石油学会可以得到一个估算排放的工具--SANGEATM能源和排放估算系统.     

A methodology for assessing blast protection in explosive ordnance disposal bomb suits.

To reduce human casualties associated with explosive ordnance disposal, a wide range of protective wear has been designed to shield against the blast effects of improvised explosive devices and munitions. In this study, 4 commercially available bomb suits, representing a range of materials and armor masses, were evaluated against 0.227 and 0.567 kg of spherical C-4 explosives to determine the level of protection offered to the head, neck, and thorax. A Hybrid III dummy, an instrumented human surrogate [1], was tested with and without protection from the 4 commercially available bomb suits. 20 tests with the dummy torso mounted to simulate a kneeling position were performed to confirm repeatability and robustness of the dummies, as well as to evaluate the 4 suits. Correlations between injury risk assessments based on past human or animal injury model data and various parameters such as bomb suit mass, projected area, and dummy coverage area were drawn.