Spatiotemporal modelling of ozone distribution in the State of California

This paper is concerned with the spatiotemporal mapping of monthly 8-h average ozone (O₃) concentrations over California during a 15-years period. The basic methodology of our analysis is based on the spatiotemporal random field (S/TRF) theory. We use a S/TRF decomposition model with a dominant seasonal O₃ component that may change significantly from site to site. O₃ seasonal patterns are estimated and separated from stochastic fluctuations. By means of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis, physically meaningful and sufficiently detailed space–time maps of the seasonal O₃ patterns are generated across space and time. During the summer and winter months the seasonal O₃ concentration maps exhibit clear and progressively changing geographical patterns over time, suggesting the existence of relationships in accordance with the typical physiographic and climatologic features of California. BME mapping accuracy can be superior to that of other techniques commonly used by EPA; its framework can rigorously assimilate useful data sources that were previously unaccounted for; the generated maps offer valuable assessments of the spatiotemporal O₃ patterns that can be helpful in the identification of physical mechanisms and their interrelations, the design of human exposure and population health models, and in risk assessment. As they focus on the seasonal patterns, the maps are not contingent on short-time and locally prevalent weather conditions, which are of no interest in a global and non-forecasting framework. Moreover, the maps offer valuable insight about the space–time O₃ concentration patterns and are, thus, helpful for disentangling the influence of explanatory factors or even for identifying some influential ones that could have been otherwise overlooked.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

PCE dissolution and simultaneous dechlorination by nanoscale zero-valent iron particles in a DNAPL source zone

While the capability of nanoscale zero-valent iron (NZVI) to dechlorinate organic compounds in aqueous solutions has been demonstrated, the ability of NZVI to remove dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) from source zones under flow-through conditions similar to a field scale application has not yet been thoroughly investigated. To gain insight on simultaneous DNAPL dissolution and NZVI-mediated dechlorination reactions after direct placement of NZVI into a DNAPL source zone, a combined experimental and modeling study was performed. First, a DNAPL tetrachloroethene (PCE) source zone with emplaced NZVI was built inside a small custom-made flow cell and the effluent PCE and dechlorination byproducts were monitored over time. Second, a model for rate-limited DNAPL dissolution and NZVI-mediated dechlorination of PCE to its three main reaction byproducts with a possibility for partitioning of these byproducts back into the DNAPL was formulated. The coupled processes occurring in the flow cell were simulated and analyzed using a detailed three-dimensional numerical model. It was found that subsurface emplacement of NZVI did not markedly accelerate DNAPL dissolution or the DNAPL mass-depletion rate, when NZVI at a particle concentration of 10g/L was directly emplaced in the DNAPL source zone. To react with NZVI the DNAPL PCE must first dissolve into the groundwater and the rate of dissolution controls the longevity of the DNAPL source. The modeling study further indicated that faster reacting particles would decrease aqueous contaminant concentrations but there is a limit to how much the mass removal rate can be increased by increasing the dechlorination reaction rate. To ensure reduction of aqueous contaminant concentrations, remediation of DNAPL contaminants with NZVI should include emplacement in a capture zone down-gradient of the DNAPL source.     

Comparison of homologous and heterologous formats in nanocolloidal gold-based immunoassays for parathion residue determination

The effectiveness of homologous and heterologous formats in a nanocolloidal gold-based immunoassay for pesticide residue determination was investigated. Parathion, one of the most toxic organophosphorus pesticides, was used as the target analyte. One-step homologous and heterologous test strips based on a nanocolloidal gold-labeled monoclonal antibody were developed for the rapid detection of parathion residues. The results showed that the heterologous format was more effective than the homologous format, being more sensitive, more specific to parathion and more tolerant of matrix interferences. The best competitive hapten was found to have a moderate heterology and the opposite electronic distribution to the immunizing hapten. The detection limits for parathion using the preferred heterologous strip were 1 μg/L in water samples and 5 μg/kg in soil and food samples.     

Microwave enhanced advanced oxidation process for treating dairy manure at low pH

This study investigated the treatment of dairy manure using the microwave enhanced advanced oxidation process (MW-AOP) at pH 2. An experimental design was developed based on a statistical program using response surface methodology to explore the effects of temperature, hydrogen peroxide dosage and heating time on sugar production, nutrient release and solids destruction. Temperature, hydrogen peroxide dosage and acid concentration were key factors affecting reducing sugar production. The highest reducing sugar yield of 7.4% was obtained at 160°C, 0 mL, 15 min heating time, and no H(2)O(2) addition. Temperature was a dominant factor for an increase of soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD) in the treated dairy manure. The important factors for volatile fatty acids (VFA) production were microwave temperature and hydrogen peroxide dosage. Temperature was the most important parameter, and heating time, to a lesser extent affecting orthophosphate release. Heating time, hydrogen peroxide dosage and temperature were significant factors for ammonia release. There was a maximum of 96% and 196% increase in orthophosphate and ammonia concentration, respectively at 160°C, 0.5 mL H(2)O(2) and 15 min heating time. The MW-AOP is an effective method in dairy manure treatment for sugar production, nutrient solubilisation, and solids disintegration.     

Toxicity persistence in runoff and soil from experimental soybean plots following insecticide applications

Persistence of toxicity in runoff water and soil was investigated in experimental soybean plots subjected to successive runoff events following pesticide application. Runoff events were produced by irrigation using a sprinkler system. The pesticides applied were cypermethrin and endosulfan, which are widely used in soy production in Argentina. Toxicity tests were performed on two abundant components of the regional fauna, the amphipod Hyalella curvispina and the fish Cnesterodon decemmaculatus. Runoffs from two pesticide applications were assayed at different stages of the growing season: an early application when the soil was almost bare and a late one close to harvest, when the ground was covered by vegetation and just before soy leaves fell. Toxicity to H. curvispina in runoff ceased almost one month after the early application of the two pesticides, while it persisted for over three months after the late application. Soil toxicity to H. curvispina and runoff toxicity to C. decemmaculatus followed the same pattern. Higher temperatures and solar radiation are likely to have enhanced insecticide degradation after the early application. Lower temperatures and solar radiation in combination with increased organic matter from litter probably contributed to the longer persistence of toxicity recorded after the late application, as compared with the early application. Cypermethrin caused no mortality to C. decemmaculatus after the early application, while endosulfan toxicity persisted for almost four months after the late one.     

Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.