Percentile estimation using variable censored data

Much progress has been made in recent years to address the estimation of summary statistics, using data that are subject to censoring of results that fall below the limit of detection (LOD) for the measuring instrument. Truncated data methods (e.g., Tobit regression) and multiple-imputation are two approaches for analyzing data results that are below the LOD. To apply these methods requires an assumption about the underlying distribution of the data. Because the log-normal distribution has been shown to fit many data sets obtained from environmental measurements, the common practice is to assume that measurements of environmental factors can be described by log-normal distributions. This article describes methods for obtaining estimates of percentiles and their associated confidence intervals when the results are log-normal and a fraction of the results are below the LOD. We present limited simulations to demonstrate the bias of the proposed estimates and the coverage probability of their associated confidence intervals. Estimation methods are used to generate summary statistics for 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro dibenzo-p-dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD) using data from a 2001 background exposure study in which PCDDs/PCDFs/cPCBs in human blood serum were measured in a Louisiana population. Because the congener measurements used in this study were subject to variable LODs, we also present simulation results to demonstrate the effect of variable LODs on the multiple-imputation process.     

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O. It can also be a sink for CO(2) through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH(4) consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N(2)O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH(4) and N(2)O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint.     

PCDD/PCDF Isomer patterns in waste incinerator flyash and desorbed into the gas phase in relation to temperature

The influence of temperature on the PCDD and PCDF isomer profiles of a municipal waste incinerator flyash and the PCDD/PCDF desorbed from the ash under an inert atmosphere was investigated using a bench-scale reactor. Exposure to temperatures of 250 degrees C and above resulted in significant changes in the distribution of isomers within most dioxin and furan congener groups. The PCDD content tended to become more evenly distributed across the range of isomers than was the case for the raw flyash, while the PCDF content became concentrated across a relatively lower number of isomers. In most cases the desorbed PCDD/PCDF were mainly mono- to tri-chlorinated, and hence had a relatively low I-TEQ value. The isomer profiles of the desorbed species were also influenced by temperature. There were some significant differences between the PCDF isomer profiles of the desorbed species and those of the treated flyashes under the same conditions, but no clear differences between the PCDD isomer profiles.     

Evaluation of ogawa passive sampling devices as an alternative measurement method for the nitrogen dioxide annual standard in El Paso, Texas

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO₂) is a common urban air pollutant that results from the combustion of fossil fuels. It causes serious human health effects, is a precursor to the formation of ground level ozone, another serious air pollutant, and is one of the six criteria air pollutants established by the United States (U.S.) Clean Air Act (CAA). Ogawa Passive Sampling Devices (PSDs) for NO₂ were collocated and operated at six NO₂ Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitor locations in the El Paso, Texas area for the 2004 calendar year. Passive samples were taken at 2-week, 3-week, and 4-week intervals and compared against the continuously operating FRM monitors. Results showed that the collective NO₂ annual arithmetic mean for all passive monitors was identical to the NO₂ mean for all FRM monitors. Of the individual locations, three passive annual NO₂ means were identical to their corresponding FRM means, and three passive annual NO₂ means differed from their corresponding FRM means by only one part per billion (ppb). Linear correlation analysis between all readings of the individual NO₂ PSDs and FRM values showed an average absolute difference of 1.2 ppb with an r ² of 0.95. Paired comparison between high and low concentration annual NO₂ sites, seasonal considerations, and interlab quality control comparisons all showed excellent results. The ease of deployment, reliability, and the cost-savings that can be realized with NO₂ PSDs could make them an attractive alternative to FRM monitors for screening purposes, and even possibly an equivalent method for annual NO₂ monitoring. More tests of the Ogawa NO₂ PSD are recommended for different ecosystem and climate regimes.     

Can synchronous spawning be predicted from environmental parameters? A case study of the lugworm Arenicola marina

The annual epidemic spawning period of a Scottish population of Arenicola marina (L.) has been recorded over a period of 13 yr. This population spawns between mid-October and mid-November in a discrete spawning event over a period of 4 to 5 d. Endocrine manipulation experiments showed that spawning is induced in females only if sufficient titres of PMH (prostomial maturation hormone) are present in the prostomia. These levels are attained during the 2 to 3 wk prior to the natural spawning date. The East Sands, St. Andrews population always spawns during periods of spring tides regardless of tidal amplitude or whether they are full- or new-moon tides. Meteorological data, including sea-temperature data were collected for each year, and correlation of the environmental data with spawning time was attempted. Correlation of spawning times with weather patterns showed that mean daily air pressures were significantly higher during the spawning period than from September to November as a whole. Evidence also suggests that a reduction in sea temperature is required prior to spawning. A significant moderate negative correlation was found between May to July air temperatures and spawning date, suggesting that higher May to July temperatures may induce early spawning. Daily rainfall and wind speed were also lower during the spawning period, but not significantly so. These results indicate that air pressure (or changes therein) may act as a final spawning cue, and the advantages of this are discussed in relation to fertilization success. A model of the interplay between environmental parameters and the endocrine mechanisms controlling the induction of spawning is proposed. Higher than average summer temperatures may advance gametogenesis to bring the population into a state of maturity (full-size oocytes, well-developed sperm morulae), and may also advance spawning time. Once the population has completed gametogenesis, a drop in sea temperature is then required to trigger an increase in endocrine titres within the prostomium, without which spawning cannot be induced by prostomial injection. The population spawns on spring tides; however a lack of clement weather coinciding with the spring tide will result in population-wide spawning being aborted, as in 1996. Clement weather (high pressure, low rainfall and wind speed) in conjunction with spring tides permits spawning to proceed to completion. Received: 21 June 1999 / Accepted: 25 January 2000     

Sorption and degradation of pesticides in nursery recycling ponds

Knowledge of pesticide distribution and persistence in nursery recycling pond water and sediment is critical for preventing phytotoxicity of pesticides during water reuse and to assess their impacts to the environment. In this study, sorption and degradation of four commonly used pesticides (diazinon, chlorpyrifos, chlorothalonil, and pendimethalin) in sediments from two nursery recycling ponds was investigated. Results showed that diazinon and chlorothalonil were moderately sorbed [K(OC) (soil organic carbon distribution coefficient) from 732 to 2.45 x 10(3) mL g(-1)] to the sediments, and their sorption was mainly attributable to organic matter content, whereas chlorpyrifos and pendimethalin were strongly sorbed (K(OC) > or = 7.43 x 10(3) mL g(-1)) to the sediments, and their sorption was related to both organic matter content and sediment texture. The persistence of diazinon and chlorpyrifos was moderate under aerobic conditions (half-lives = 8 to 32 d), and increased under anaerobic conditions (half-lives = 12 to 53 d). In contrast, chlorothalonil and pendimethalin were quickly degraded under aerobic conditions with half-lives < 2.8 d, and their degradation was further enhanced under anaerobic conditions (half-lives < 1.9 d). The strong sorption of chlorpyrifos and pendimethalin by the sediments suggests that the practice of recycling nursery runoff would effectively retain these compounds in the recycling pond, minimizing their offsite movement. The prolonged persistence of diazinon and chlorpyrifos, however, implies that incidental spills, such as overflows caused by storm events, may contribute significant loads of such pesticides into downstream surface water bodies.     

Nitrogen and phosphorus status of soils and trophic state of lakes associated with forage-based beef cattle operations in Florida

Forage-based livestock systems have been implicated as major contributors to deteriorating water quality, particularly for phosphorus (P) from commercial fertilizers and manures affecting surface and ground water quality. Little information exists regarding possible magnitudes of nutrient losses from pastures that are managed for both grazing and hay production and how these might impact adjacent bodies of water. We examined the changes that have occurred in soil fertility levels of rhizoma peanut (Arachis glabrata Benth.)-based beef cattle pastures (n = 4) in Florida from 1988 to 2002. These pastures were managed for grazing in spring followed by haying in late summer and were fertilized annually with P (39 kg P2O5 ha(-1)) and K (68 kg K2O ha(-1)). Additionally, we investigated trends in water quality parameters and trophic state index (TSI) of lakes (n = 3) associated with beef cattle operations from 1993 to 2002. Overall, there was no spatial or temporal buildup of soil P and other crop nutrients despite the annual application of fertilizers and daily in-field loading of animal waste. In fact, soil fertility levels showed a declining trend for crop nutrient levels, especially soil P (y = 146.57 - 8.14 x year; r2= 0.75), even though the fields had a history of P fertilization and the cattle were rotated into the legume fields. Our results indicate that when nutrients are not applied in excess, cow-calf systems are slight exporters of P, K, Ca, and Mg through removal of cut hay. Water quality in lakes associated with cattle production was "good" (30-46 TSI) based on the Florida Water Quality Standard. These findings indicate that properly managed livestock operations may not be major contributors to excess loads of nutrients (especially P) in surface water.     

Demonstration of methods to reduce E. coli runoff from dairy manure application sites

Contamination by bacteria is a leading cause of impairment in U.S. waters, particularly in areas of livestock agriculture. We evaluated the effectiveness of several practices in reducing Escherichia coli levels in runoff from fields receiving liquid dairy (Bos taurus) manure. Runoff trials were conducted on replicated hay and silage corn (Zea mays L.) plots using simulated rainfall. Levels of E. coli in runoff were approximately 10(4) to 10(6) organisms per 100 mL, representing a significant pollution potential. Practices tested were: manure storage, delay between manure application and rainfall, manure incorporation by tillage, and increased hayland vegetation height. Storage of manure for 30 d or more consistently and dramatically lowered E. coli counts in our experiments, with longer storage providing greater reductions. Manure E. coli declined by > 99% after approximately 90 d of storage. On average, levels of E. coli in runoff were 97% lower from plots receiving 30-d-old and > 99% lower from plots receiving 90-d-old manure than from plots where fresh manure was applied. Runoff from hayland and cornland plots where manure was applied 3 d before rainfall contained approximately 50% fewer E. coli than did runoff from plots that received manure 1 d before rainfall. Hayland vegetation height alone did not significantly affect E. coli levels in runoff, but interactions with rainfall delay and manure age were observed. Manure incorporation alone did not significantly affect E. coli levels in cornland plot runoff, but incorporation could reduce bacteria export by reducing field runoff and interaction with rainfall delay was observed. Extended storage that avoids additions of fresh manure, combined with application several days before runoff, incorporation on tilled land, and higher vegetation on hayland at application could substantially reduce microorganism loading from agricultural land.     

近年来珠三角地区大气中痕量氟氯烃(CFCs)的浓度水平与变化特征

用预浓缩-GC/MS方法研究了珠江三角洲大气中的CCl3F、CFC-12、CFC-113和CFC-114等4种痕量氟氯烷烃气体。结果表明,2005年珠江三角洲背景点鼎湖山大气中CFC-12和CFC-11的年平均浓度高于全球本底站,说明珠三角地区还存在一定CFC-11和CFC-12的排放源;CFC-113浓度水平则与全球本底站点浓度接近,且CFC-113和CFC-114在广州城区与鼎湖山差别不显著,表明区内其排放源强度应很小。观测日内广州和鼎湖山大气中四种CFCs的日变化幅度均较小,无明显的昼夜变化规律。广州市CFCs总体呈夏秋高、冬春低的特征,与城区致冷设备高温季节使用频率较大有关;鼎湖山则呈冬春高、夏秋低的特征,主要受扩散作用和季风的影响。初步分析显示,从1997年到2005年,CFC-11、CFC-12和CFC-114浓度总体呈现先上升后缓慢降低的趋势,而CFC-113的浓度一直逐年下降。