An algorithm for assessing the risk of traffic accident

INTRODUCTION: This study is aimed at developing an algorithm to estimate the number of traffic accidents and assess the risk of traffic accidents in a study area. METHOD: The algorithm involves a combination of mapping technique (Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques) and statistical methods (cluster analysis and regression analysis). Geographical Information System is used to locate accidents on a digital map and realize their distribution. Cluster analysis is used to group the homogeneous data together. Regression analysis is performed to realize the relation between the number of accident events and the potential causal factors. Negative binomial regression model is found to be an appropriate mathematical form to mimic this relation. Accident risk of the area, derived from historical accident records and causal factors, is also determined in the algorithm. The risk is computed using the Empirical Bayes (EB) approach. A case study of Hong Kong is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. RESULTS: The results show that the algorithm improves accident risk estimation when comparing to the estimated risk based on only the historical accident records. The algorithm is found to be more efficient, especially in the case of fatality and pedestrian-related accident analysis. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The output of the proposed algorithm can help authorities effectively identify areas with high accident risk. In addition, it can serve as a reference for town planners considering road safety.     

Environmental impacts of iron ore tailings—The case of Tolo Harbour,Hong Kong

Disposal of iron ore tailings along the shore of Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong has altered the adjacent environment. Due to the ever-expanding population, the vast development of various industries, and the lack of sanitary control, the existing pollution problem of Tolo Harbour is serious. The iron ore tailings consist of a moderate amount of various heavy metals, e.g., copper, iron, manganese, lead, zinc, and a lower level of macronutrients. A few living organisms have been found colonizing this manmade habitat. Higher metal contents were also found in the tissue ofPaphia sp. (clam);Scopimera intermedia (crab);Chaetomorpha brychagona (green alga);Enteromorpha crinita (green alga); andNeyraudia reynaudiana (grass). The area can be reclaimed by surface amelioration using inert materials, soils, or organic substrates, and by direct seeding, using nontolerant and tolerant plant materials. Reclamation of the tailings would improve the amenity of the adjacent environment and also mitigate pollution escaping to the sea.     

Effects of landfill gas on subtropical woody plants

An account is given of the influence of landfill gas on tree growth in the field at Gin Drinkers' Bay (GDB) landfill, Hong Kong, and in the laboratory. Ten species (Acacia confusa, Albizzia lebbek, Aporusa chinensis, Bombax malabaricum, Castanopsis fissa, Liquidambar formosana, Litsea glutinosa, Machilus breviflora, Pinus elliottii, andTristania conferta), belonging to eight families, were transplanted to two sites, one with a high concentration of landfill gas in the cover soil (high-gas site, HGS) and the other with a relatively low concentration of gas (low-gas site, LGS). Apart from the gaseous composition, the general soil properties were similar. A strong negative correlation between tree growth and landfill gas concentration was observed. A laboratory study using the simulated landfill gas to fumigate seedlings of the above species showed that the adventitious root growth ofAporusa chinensis, Bombax malabaricum, Machilus breviflora, andTristania confera was stimulated by the gas, with shallow root systems being induced.Acacia confusa, Albizzia lebbek, andLitsea glutinosa were gas-tolerant, while root growth ofCastanopsis fissa, Liquidambar formosana, andPinus elliottii was inhibited. In most cases, shoot growth was not affected, exceptions beingBombax malabaricum, Liquidambar formosana, andTristania conferta, where stunted growth and/or reduced foliation was observed. A very high CO₂ concentration in cover soil limits the depth of the root system. Trees with a shallow root system become very susceptible to water stress. The effects of low O₂ concentration in soil are less important than the effects of high CO₂ concentration.Acacia confusa, Albizzia lebbek, andTristania conferta are suited for growth on subtropical completed landfills mainly due to their gas tolerance and/or drought tolerance.     

The reproductive ecology of the invasive ascidian, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Styela clava,</Emphasis> in Auckland Harbour,New Zealand

The ascidian Styela clava, native to the north-west Pacific, is an invasive species affecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems, biodiversity and aquaculture operations. To provide detailed information on the reproductive biology of S. clava in New Zealand for post-border biosecurity management, long-term seasonal patterns of gametogenesis were determined from May 2006 to May 2008 in Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour (36°49′20″S, 174°45′85″E). Of particular interest was whether the critical 15°C threshold spawning temperature for reproduction observed in the Northern Hemisphere applied here to the first Southern Hemisphere study. S. clava gametogenesis followed a regular seasonal cycle with ripe gametes appearing as early as September and persisting to June; this time frame corresponds to the period when sea surface temperatures in the region first reach 15°C and with spawning occurring mainly during late summer to early autumn. From photoperiod manipulation, it was determined that spawning occurred at approximately 18:20. The extended reproductive period and a short generation time in the Waitemata Harbour provides a lengthy opportunity for S. clava to spread. Findings are discussed in relation to S. clava’s post-border management.     

Persistent organic pollutants and heavy metals in adipose tissues of patients with uterine leiomyomas and the association of these pollutants with seafood diet, BMI, and age

Background, aim, and scope  

Persistent organic pollutants and heavy metals can cause diseases in women, however, the relationships of these pollutants and uterine leiomyomas (UL), which are non-cancerous tumors of the uterus, are unclear. This study focused on the quantification of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and heavy metals in subcutaneous and visceral fat obtained from patients with UL and in subcutaneous fat of a control group of women without UL to determine if there were any correlations between concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals and the incidence of UL.     

Percentile estimation using variable censored data

Much progress has been made in recent years to address the estimation of summary statistics, using data that are subject to censoring of results that fall below the limit of detection (LOD) for the measuring instrument. Truncated data methods (e.g., Tobit regression) and multiple-imputation are two approaches for analyzing data results that are below the LOD. To apply these methods requires an assumption about the underlying distribution of the data. Because the log-normal distribution has been shown to fit many data sets obtained from environmental measurements, the common practice is to assume that measurements of environmental factors can be described by log-normal distributions. This article describes methods for obtaining estimates of percentiles and their associated confidence intervals when the results are log-normal and a fraction of the results are below the LOD. We present limited simulations to demonstrate the bias of the proposed estimates and the coverage probability of their associated confidence intervals. Estimation methods are used to generate summary statistics for 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro dibenzo-p-dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD) using data from a 2001 background exposure study in which PCDDs/PCDFs/cPCBs in human blood serum were measured in a Louisiana population. Because the congener measurements used in this study were subject to variable LODs, we also present simulation results to demonstrate the effect of variable LODs on the multiple-imputation process.     

Comparison of micrometeorological and two-film estimates of air–water gas exchange for alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Canadian archipelago

The air-sea gas exchange of alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) in the Canadian Arctic was estimated using a micrometeorological approach and the commonly used Whitman two-film model. Concurrent shipboard measurements of α-HCH in air at two heights (1 and 15 m) and in surface seawater were conducted during the Circumpolar Flaw Lead study in 2008. Sampling was carried out during eight events in the early summer time when open water was encountered. The micrometeorological technique employed the vertical gradient in air concentration and the wind speed to estimate the flux; results were corrected for atmospheric stability using the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter. The Whitman two-film model used the concentrations of α-HCH in surface seawater, in bulk air at 1 and 15 m above the surface, and the Henry's law constant adjusted for temperature and salinity to derive the flux. Both approaches showed that the overall net flux of α-HCH was from water to air. Mean fluxes calculated using the micrometeorological technique ranged from -3.5 to 18 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.4), compared to 3.5 to 14 ng m(-2) day(-1) (mean 7.5) using the Whitman two-film model. Flux estimates for individual events agreed in direction and within a factor of two in magnitude for six of eight events. For two events, fluxes estimated by micrometeorology were zero or negative, while fluxes estimated with the two-film model were positive, and the reasons for these discrepancies are unclear. Improvements are needed to shorten air sampling times to ensure that stationarity of meteorological conditions is not compromised over the measurement periods. The micrometeorological technique could be particularly useful to estimate fluxes of organic chemicals over water in situations where no water samples are available.     

Lobar holoprosencephaly: prenatal MR diagnosis with postnatal MR correlation

Holoprosencephaly is a congenital anomaly characterized by lack of cleavage of the prosencephalon. Although, relatively rare, it is the most common anomaly that involves both the brain and the face. Prenatal diagnosis of this anomaly using ultrasonography, particularly of the less severe forms, is difficult. Magnetic resonance imaging has recently become an important complement to US in prenatal diagnosis of CNS anomalies. We herein report a patient in whom, at 23 weeks of gestation, US suggested agenesis of the corpus callosum and in whom, at 24 weeks of gestation, MRI correctly diagnosed lobar holoprosencephaly, which was confirmed by a postnatal MRI at 3 weeks of age. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of the insect growth regulator (S)-methoprene on survival and reproduction of the freshwater cladoceran Moina macrocopa

This study examines the acute and chronic effects of the insecticide (S)-methoprene on the survival and reproduction of the freshwater cladoceran Moina macrocopa. In laboratory toxicity tests, the 24- and 48-h LC50 values for (S)-methoprene were 0.51 and 0.34 mg litre(-1), respectively. Survival, longevity and fecundity were reduced at 0.05 mg litre(-1) and higher concentrations. At 0.005 and 0.01 mg litre(-1), longevity and fecundity increased slightly as compared to control animals. If environmental concentrations of methoprene do not exceed 0.05 mg litre(-1), as is generally the case, application of this insecticide is unlikely to induce detrimental effects on natural cladoceran populations. The stimulatory effect of very low levels of methoprene on reproductive performance is consistent with the hypothesis of a regulatory role of juvenile hormone-like compounds in crustacean reproduction.