Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.     

Persistence of carbofuran in marine sand and water

Marine sand and seawater samples were collected in March 2002 from Laysan Island in the Hawaiian Islands National Wildlife Refuge, where a small area was contaminated by the carbamate insecticide carbofuran. Carbofuran was still detected at microg g(-1) levels in the Laysan sand after its identification in 1998 and initial observation of the toxicity in 1988. The persistence of carbofuran in the marine sand was investigated in the dark in a 30 degrees C oven, and in distilled deionized water and seawater samples exposed to artificial 300 nm light and to direct sunlight. The laboratory study showed a half-life (t1/2) of approximately 40 days for carbofuran in the native sand and in Ottawa sand. The photolysis of carbofuran was faster in seawater than in distilled deionized water when it was exposed to 300 nm light (t1/2, 0.1 vs. 3.1 h) and to direct sunlight (t1/2, 7.5 vs. 41.6 h). The large difference between the laboratory results and the field observation of carbofuran dissipation suggests that carbofuran degradation at the remote, undisturbed marine site may be governed by its unique environmental factors.     

Market‐based conservation: Aligning static theory with dynamic systems

This paper provides a broad evaluation of the implications of market‐based conservation (MBC) strategies from economic, social and ecological perspectives. After reviewing the economic theory that underlies MBC initiatives, we develop a list of approaches that have been labeled as “market‐based”, and categorize them according to the degree to which they are free‐standing markets or require the intervention of the state. A multidisciplinary critique reveals the potential problems and pitfalls of MBC are due to a lack of ability to deal with dynamic systems in the real world. The dynamics of these three systems can undermine the intended goals of MBC.     

THE STRUCTURE AND PRACTICE OF WATER QUALITY TRADING MARKETS1

ABSTRACT: The use of transferable discharge permits in water pollution, what we will call water quality trading (WQT), is rapidly growing in the U.S. This paper reviews the current status of WQT nationally and discusses the structures of the markets that have been formed. Four main structures are observed in such markets: exchanges, bilateral negotiations, clearinghouses, and sole source offsets. The goals of a WQT program are environmental quality and cost effectiveness. In designing a WQT market, policy makers are constrained by legal restrictions and the physical characteristics of the pollution problem. The choices that must be made include how trading will be authorized, monitored and enforced. How these questions are answered will help determine both the extent to which these goals are achieved, and the market structures that can arise. After discussing the characteristics of different market structures, we evaluate how this framework applies in the case of California's Grassland Drainage Area Tradable Loads Program.     

The sustainable remediation forum

Regulators seem to currently be focusing on green remediation and not sustainable remediation. How can the industry change this perception so that a more holistic approach is followed?     

History and Development of the NRCS Lag Time Equation1

Abstract: Many of the hydrologic methods that are used in engineering practice today resulted from the Spring Flood of 1936, which blanketed the Northeastern portion of the United States. Because of the flood damage that was caused by this rainfall‐snowmelt event, many federal agencies including the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) implemented the hydrologic theories that were available in the literature at this time and developed hydrologic procedures for design flow estimation. Sherman had recently published his unit hydrograph theory in 1932, and later in 1938 Snyder, who had been charged by the Water Resource Council to develop a synthetic unit hydrograph, published his famous paper. The SCS unit hydrograph theory was developed by Victor Mockus in the late 1950s. Most if not all of the theories at that time reported the rainfall‐runoff process for floods as a surface phenomenon, and as such those theories all required some type of a timing parameter to estimate watershed response time. This article documents the development of the SCS lag equation.     

Reducing commercial fishing deck hazards with engineering solutions for winch design

INTRODUCTION: The majority (67%) of hospitalized injuries among Alaska commercial fishermen are associated with deck machinery. This paper describes the "Prevention Through Design" process to mitigate one serious machinery entanglement hazard posed by a capstan deck winch. METHODS: After observing that the capstan winch provides no entanglement protection and the hydraulic controls are usually out of reach of the entangled person, NIOSH personnel met with fishermen and winch manufacturers to discuss various design solutions to mitigate these hazards. RESULTS: An emergency-stop ("e-stop") system was developed that incorporated a momentary contact button that when pushed, switches a safety-relay that de-energizes the solenoid of an electro-hydraulic valve stopping the rotating winch. The vessel owners that had the e-stop installed enthusiastically recommend it to other fishermen. NIOSH entered into a Proprietary Technology Licensing Agreement with a company to develop the system for commercial use. CONCLUSIONS: This is an example of a practical engineering control that effectively protects workers from a hazardous piece of equipment by preventing injuries due to entanglement. This solution could reduce these types of debilitating injuries and fatalities in this industry.     

Practical Precautionary Resource Management Using Robust Optimization

Uncertainties inherent in fisheries motivate a precautionary approach to management, meaning an approach specifically intended to avoid bad outcomes. Stochastic dynamic optimization models, which have been in the fisheries literature for decades, provide a framework for decision making when uncertain outcomes have known probabilities. However, most such models incorporate population dynamics models for which the parameters are assumed known. In this paper, we apply a robust optimization approach to capture a form of uncertainty nearly universal in fisheries, uncertainty regarding the values of model parameters. Our approach, developed by Nilim and El Ghaoui (Oper Res 53(5):780–798, 2005), establishes bounds on parameter values based on the available data and the degree of precaution that the decision maker chooses. To demonstrate the applicability of the method to fisheries management problems, we use a simple example, the Skeena River sockeye salmon fishery. We show that robust optimization offers a structured and computationally tractable approach to formulating precautionary harvest policies. Moreover, as better information about the resource becomes available, less conservative management is possible without reducing the level of precaution.