Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

Links among nitrification, nitrifier communities, and edaphic properties in contrasting soils receiving dairy slurry

Soil biotic and abiotic factors strongly influence nitrogen (N) availability and increases in nitrification rates associated with the application of manure. In this study, we examine the effects of edaphic properties and a dairy (Bos taurus) slurry amendment on N availability, nitrification rates and nitrifier communities. Soils of variable texture and clay mineralogy were collected from six USDA-ARS research sites and incubated for 28 d with and without dairy slurry applied at a rate of ~300 kg N ha(-1). Periodically, subsamples were removed for analyses of 2 M KCl extractable N and nitrification potential, as well as gene copy numbers of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA). Spearman coefficients for nitrification potentials and AOB copy number were positively correlated with total soil C, total soil N, cation exchange capacity, and clay mineralogy in treatments with and without slurry application. Our data show that the quantity and type of clay minerals present in a soil affect nitrifier populations, nitrification rates, and the release of inorganic N. Nitrogen mineralization, nitrification potentials, and edaphic properties were positively correlated with AOB gene copy numbers. On average, AOA gene copy numbers were an order of magnitude lower than those of AOB across the six soils and did not increase with slurry application. Our research suggests that the two nitrifier communities overlap but have different optimum environmental conditions for growth and activity that are partly determined by the interaction of manure-derived ammonium with soil properties.     

Nitrogen leaching and acidification during 19 years of NH₄NO₃ additions to a coniferous-forested catchment at Gårdsjön, Sweden (NITREX)

The role of nitrogen (N) in acidification of soil and water has become relatively more important as the deposition of sulphur has decreased. Starting in 1991, we have conducted a whole-catchment experiment with N addition at Gårdsjön, Sweden, to investigate the risk of N saturation. We have added 41 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ as NH₄NO₃ to the ambient 9 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in fortnightly doses by means of sprinkling system. The fraction of input N lost to runoff has increased from 0% to 10%. Increased concentrations of NO₃ in runoff partially offset the decreasing concentrations of SO₄ and slowed ecosystem recovery from acid deposition. From 1990-2002, about 5% of the total N input went to runoff, 44% to biomass, and the remaining 51% to soil. The soil N pool increased by 5%. N deposition enhanced carbon (C) sequestration at a mean C/N ratio of 42-59 g g⁻¹.     

Evaluation of Sample Recovery of Malodorous Livestock Gases from Air Sampling Bags,Solid-Phase Microextraction Fibers,Tenax TA Sorbent Tubes,and Sampling Canisters

Abstract

Odorous gases associated with livestock operations are complex mixtures of hundreds if not thousands of compounds. Research is needed to know how best to sample and analyze these compounds. The main objective of this research was to compare recoveries of a standard gas mixture of 11 odorous compounds from the Carboxen/PDMS 75–μm solid–phase microextraction fibers, polyvinyl fluo–ride (PVF; Tedlar), fluorinated ethylene propylene copolymer (FEP; Teflon), foil, and polyethylene terephthalate (PET; Melinex) air sampling bags, sorbent 2,b–diphenylene–oxide polymer resin (Tenax TA) tubes, and standard 6–L Stabilizer sampling canisters after sample storage for 0.5, 24, and 120 (for sorbent tubes only) hrs at room temperature. The standard gas mixture consisted of 7 volatile fatty acids (VFAs) from acetic to hexanoic, and 4 semivolatile organic compounds including p–cresol, indole, 4–ethylphenol, and 2'–aminoacetophenone with concentrations ranging from 5.1 ppb for indole to 1270 ppb for acetic acid. On average, SPME had the highest mean recovery for all 11 gases of 106.2%, and 98.3% for 0.5– and 24–hr sample storage time, respectively. This was followed by the Tenax TA sorbent tubes (94.8% and 88.3%) for 24 and 120 hr, respectively; PET bags (71.7% and 47.2%), FEP bags (75.4% and 39.4%), commercial Tedlar bags (67.6% and 22.7%), in–house–made Tedlar bags (47.3% and 37.4%), foil bags (16.4% and 4.3%), and canisters (4.2% and 0.5%), for 0.5 and 24 hr, respectively. VFAs had higher recoveries than semivolatile organic compounds for all of the bags and canisters. New FEP bags and new foil bags had the lowest and the highest amounts of chemical impurities, respectively. New commercial Tedlar bags had measurable concentrations of N,N–dimethyl acetamide and phenol. Foil bags had measurable concentrations of acetic, propionic, butyric, valeric, and hexanoic acids.     

Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland,Australia

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land.     

Determination of fecal contamination indicator sterols in an Australian water supply system

This paper reports a reconnaissance survey of the concentrations of sterol compounds (as indicators of fecal contamination) in a large water supply system in southeast Australia comprising a network of rivers, channels, and drains. Levels of coprostanol and cholestanol were determined in surface water and bottom sediment using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis across 17 strategic sampling sites and over 12 months. Clear differences in the levels of fecal contamination were observed among sites. Four sites routinely contained high levels of the fecal indicator sterols indicated from surface water and sediment sample analysis. Coprostanol concentrations at each location varied from 0 ng/L at the reference site to 11,327 ng/L in a surface water sample of a drain directly downstream of a knackery. The majority of the sites contained coprostanol in the range of 500 to 800 ng/L. Since no fecal-associated sterol compounds were detected at the external reference sites, these were assumed to be free from fecal contamination. Sewage water discharge and/or substantial water runoff maybe the principal factors contributing to fecal contamination of the supply drains and channels.     

Bi-directional sex change in a coral-dwelling goby

Bi-directional sex change has recently been reported among obligate coral-dwelling gobies of the genus Gobiodon. However, neither the functional role of this pattern of sex change nor the frequency of sex change in either direction in natural populations is known. We investigated the social structure and pattern of sex change of Gobiodon histrio at Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef. The social structure of G. histrio within coral colonies usually consisted of a single juvenile or a heterosexual adult pair. The size of adult social groups was not constrained by coral colony size. In contrast to expectations for pair-forming species, G.␣histrio was primarily a protogynous hermaphrodite. All immature G. histrio were females and sex change from female to male occurred readily when two mature females were placed in a coral colony. In addition, male G. histrio were able to change back to females when two mature males were placed in a coral. Sex change from female to male, however, occurred with over twice the frequency of sex change from male to female. Where two males were placed in a coral colony, heterosexual pairs were most frequently re-established by immigration of females from outside the treatment population. This pattern might be predicted if sex change from male to female is more expensive than sex change from female to male for G. histrio. Where sex change is expensive, movement may be favoured over sex change, particularly where coral densities are high and movement among corals incurs little mortality risk. Received: 10 November 1997 / Accepted after revision: 16 May 1998     

Comparison of efficacy of three extractants to solubilize glomalin on hyphae and in soil

Glomalin, a glycoprotein produced by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, is a major component of the humus fraction of soil organic matter. Glomalin is extracted from soil and hyphae of AM fungi by using sodium citrate at 121 degrees C in multiple 1-h cycles, but extensive extraction does not solubilize all glomalin in all soils. Efficacies of 100 mM sodium salts of citrate, borate or pyrophosphate (pH 9.0, 121 degrees C) were tested for two 1-h cycles for hyphae from four AM fungal isolates and four 1-h cycles for seven soils from four US geographic regions. Residual soil glomalin was examined by pyrophosphate extraction of soils previously extracted with citrate or borate followed by extraction of all soils after treatment with NaOH. Hyphal extracts were compared using Bradford-reactive total protein (BRTP) values, and extracts from soils were compared using BRTP, percentage C and C weight. No difference among extractants was detected for AM fungal isolates or across soils. The residual glomalin across soils for extractants contained the following percentages of the total BRTP: pyrophosphate, 14%; borate, 17%; and citrate, 22%. Comparisons among individual soils indicated that pyrophosphate extracted significantly more BRTP (10-53%) than borate or citrate in six soils and borate was equal to pyrophosphate in one soil. Extraction with borate should be compared with pyrophosphate before initiating an experiment. For routine extractions of ca. 85% of the glomalin across a variety of soils, sodium pyrophosphate appears to be equal to or better than borate and better than citrate.     

Modeling rural landowners' hunter access policies in East Texas,USA

Private landowners in East Texas, USA, were aggregated into one of four policy categories according to the degree of access allowed to their lands for hunting. Based on these categories, a logistic regression model of possible determinants of access policy was developed and probabilities of policy adoption were calculated. Overwhelmingly, attitudes toward hunting as a sport, incentives, and control over the actions of hunters were most predictive of landowners' policies. Additionally, the availability of deer was found to be negatively correlated with access, thereby suggesting management efforts to increase deer populations may be counter to increasing access. Further, probabilities derived from the model indicated that there was almost a 7 in 10 chance (0.66) that landowners would adopt policies commensurate with allowing family and personal acquaintances to hunt on their property. However, the probability of increasing access beyond this level, where access was provided for the general public, dropped off drastically to less than 5% (0.04).