APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

桥梁抗震主动控制的稳定性研究

主动控制应用于实际结构 ,需要考虑其控制效果的稳定性问题 ,为此 ,分析了桥梁抗震主动控制中可能出现的计算模型误差和系统误差 ,并讨论了应用H2 控制和H∞ 控制两种算法的稳定性。理论分析和仿真计算表明 ,在频谱特性不同的地震激励下 ,H2 控制和H∞ 控制两种算法都可以取得满意的控制效果 ;对于计算模型误差 ,H2 控制和H∞ 控制两种算法的鲁棒性相当 ,控制效果稳定 ;对于系统误差 ,H∞ 控制算法比H2 控制算法鲁棒性强 ,在较大的误差下可以保持控制效果的稳定性     

大中城市震害预测与辅助决策的空间分析

利用GIS的空间分析功能，对大中城市防震减灾示范研究成果进行了空间区划分析，给出了城市高危害街区的计算方法和结果，同时给出了各种结构类型房屋破坏面积、人员伤亡和无家可归人口数在各个街区的空间分布结果，以及基于此空间分布结果的医疗救护、人员疏散和物资供应等辅助决策分析。该分析的主要意义在于能充分了解大中城市潜在震害的空间分布，为震前采取相应预防措施和震后开展应急救灾工作提供了方便。     

A dynamic compartment model for assessing the transfer of radionuclide deposited onto flooded rice-fields

A dynamic compartment model has been studied to estimate the transfer of radionuclides deposited onto flooded rice-fields after an accidental release. In the model, a surface water compartment and a direct shoot-base absorption from the surface water to the rice-plant, which are major features discriminating the present model from the existing model, has been introduced to account for the flooded condition of rice-fields. The model has been applied to the deposition experiments of 137Cs on rice-fields that were performed at three different times to simulate the deposition before transplanting (May 2) and during the growth of the rice (June 1 and August 12), respectively. In the case of the deposition of May 2, the root-uptake is the most predominant process for transferring 137Cs to the rice-body and grain. When the radionuclide is applied just after transplanting (June 1), the activity of the body is controlled by the shoot-base absorption and the activity of the grain by the root-uptake. The deposition just before ear-emergence (August 12) shows that the shoot-base absorption contributes entirely to the increase of both the activities of the body and grain. The model prediction agrees within one or two factors with the experimental results obtained for a respective deposition experiment.     

近断层强震速度脉冲效应及连续梁桥减隔震特性分析

应用非线性时程分析的方法 ,对于减、隔震连续桥梁在近场地震作用下的有效性和响应特性 ,作了深入的研究。通过有代表性的脉冲型近场强震记录时程分析 ,提出了用速度脉冲峰值及其周期之积来表示速度脉冲能量的方法 ,计算表明近场地震速度脉冲波能近似表征地震动破坏能力的大小 ,它和桥梁结构承受的地震响应大体成正比例关系。铅芯橡胶隔震支座在近场地震作用下仍然适用 ,但对于个别脉冲型强震记录效果不够明显 ,支座参数有必要进行优化。     

Hydroxyl radical scavenging role of chloride and bicarbonate ions in the H2O2/UV process

Simultaneous effect of inorganic anions, such as chloride and bicarbonate ions, on the scavenging of hydroxyl radicals (HO*) in the H2O2/UV process is the focus of this paper. The model compound of n-chlorobutane (BuCl) was used as the probe of HO*. By changing the pH conditions (2-9) and the concentrations of NaCl (0.25-2500 mM) and NaHCO3 (25 mM), the variation of HO* concentrations and the rate of H2O2 decomposition were compared. In general, the BuCl and H2O2 follow closely the first-order reaction within the first 10 and 40 min, respectively. In the presence of chloride alone at the pH range of 2-6, the HO* concentration in the reaction mixture increases with the increase of pH, and the HO* concentration at pH = 6 is 100 times of that at pH = 2. Including bicarbonate species in the solution, the peak HO* concentration was found at a certain pH, which shifts from 4, 5, to 5-7, as the molar ratios of chloride/bicarbonate species increase from 1 to 100. In addition, without bicarbonate species HO* concentration decreases significantly with increasing chloride concentration but remained rather unchanged beyond 1250 mM. In contrast, the HO* scavenging in the presence of bicarbonate species became relatively significant only when the chloride concentration reached beyond 250 mM. Throughout all experiments of different water quality conditions, the H2O2 decomposition rate remains rather unchanged.     

废钻井液固化实验研究

利用经实验筛选的固化剂配方对废钻井液进行了固化处理的室内配方研究。结果表明,经该固化剂配方处理后的固结材料在水中浸泡5d后的浸出液在色度、化学需氧量、pH值、石油类、悬浮物含量和重金属含量等指标方面可达到国家《污水综合排放标准》(GB8978-1996)中的二级标准。     

雾灵山自然保护区的生态效应与保护对策

通过对雾灵山国家级自然保护区的调查，研究保护区的生态沿革，分析保护区的生态功能、生态作用等生态效应，针对当前所存在的草甸严重退化、动物种群密度降低、水量减少等生态问题，提出对保护区的生态环境应尽快制定环境保护规范化，建立生物多样性保护权威机构，实行社区共管，开展科学生态旅游等措施。     

高锰酸钾强化PAC混凝处理温瑞塘河黑臭水体试验研究

以浙江省温州市温瑞塘河某河段黑臭地表水为研究对象,考察高锰酸钾强化PAC混凝工艺的除污效能,获得处理温瑞塘河黑臭水体的最佳工艺条件,为恢复河流水体生态自净功能提供基础。试验结果表明,高锰酸钾的最优投加方式为在混凝剂PAC前投加,最佳预氧化时间5 min,最佳投加量1.5 mg/L。将本实验得出的最优混凝处理条件应用于温瑞塘河实际黑臭水体的处理时发现,处理后水质明显改善,此表明高锰酸钾强化混凝应急处理温瑞塘河黑臭水体是切实可行的,可为实际的应急处理工艺提供了理论依据和技术指导。     

characteristics of PM2.5 in rural areas of southern Jiangsu Province, China

Introduction Anumberofstudiesabroadhavedemonstratedthat atmosphericfineparticulatematter(PM2.5,dp<2.5μm)is notonlyassociatedwithatmosphericvisibilityreductionbut alsohasaclearcorrelationwiththenumberofdailydeathsandhospitalizationsasaconsequenceofpulmonarydisease(Chan,1997;Christoforous,2000;Schwartz,1996;Wilson,1997).On18July,1997,theU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(USEPA)promulgatednewandsevere standardsforfineparticulates(PM2.5)withthesizebelow2.5μm(15μg m3asannualaverage,65μg m…