Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

应用D412螯合树脂治理含镍电镀废水的研究

本文研究了Ｄ４１２螯合树脂对Ｎｉ（Ⅱ）离子静态和动态的吸收性能,并且研究了使用Ｄ４１２树脂除去和回收电镀废水中镍的最佳条件。     

Sorption of polar and nonpolar aromatic compounds to four surface soils of eastern China

Improved predictions on the fate of organic pollutants in surface environments require a better understanding of the underlying sorption mechanisms that control their uptake by soils. In this study, we monitored sorption of nine aromatic compounds with varying physicochemical properties (hydrophobicity, electron-donor/acceptor ability and polarity), including two polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, two chlorobenzenes, two nitroaromatic compounds, dichlobenil, carbaryl and 2,4-dichlorophenol in aqueous suspension of four surface soils of eastern China. The tested soils were characterized with respect to organic carbon (OC) content, black carbon content, mineralogy, morphology and size fraction to assess the role of the diverse soil characteristics in sorption. The results of this study show that not only the solute hydrophobicity and the OC content of soil are important to the retention of organic pollutants, but also the solute molecular structure and the soil nature.     

活性碳纤维改性技术研究进展

介绍了活性碳纤维(ACF)的孔结构及表面官能团,综述了国内外ACF改性技术的研究现状.ACF的改性主要包括孔结构调控和表面化学改性,表面化学改性包括氧化还原法、表面负载法、浸渍法、热处理法、远程等离子体处理法、微波辐照法等,也可将多种方法结合来对ACF进行改性,以改善和提高ACF的吸附性能.在总结现有研究的基础上,对ACF改性技术发展趋势进行了展望.     

环境中VOCs的污染现状及处理技术研究进展

综述了近十年来大气环境中挥发性有机物(VOcs)的污染现状及其主要处理技术的研究进展.介绍了目前大气环境中VOCs的主要处理技术(包括吸附、冷凝及膜分离等回收技术和燃烧、等离子体、光催化降解和生物降解等销毁技术)的适用条件、经济性、可操作性和净化效率.提出要对VOCs的吸收和生物降解的反应动力学模型、催化机制、材料的性能及微生物活性进行深入研究的建议.     

Biofilm structure and its influence on clogging in drip irrigation emitters distributing reclaimed wastewater

Using reclaimed wastewater for crop irrigation is a practical alternative to discharge wastewater treatment plant effluents into surface waters.However,biofouling has been identified as a major contributor to emitter clogging in drip irrigation systems distributing reclaimed wastewater.Little is known about the biofilm structure and its influence on clogging in the drip emitter flow path.This study was first to investigate the microbial characteristics of mature biofilms present in the emitters and the effect of flow path structures on the biofilm microbial communities.The analysis of biofilm matrix structure using a scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed that particles in the matrix of the biofilm coupled extracellular polysaccharides (EPS) and formed sediment in the emitter flow path.Analysis of biofilm mass including protein,polysaccharide and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) showed that emitter flow path style influenced biofilm community structure and diversity.The correlations of biofilm biomass and discharge reduction after 360 h irrigation were computed and suggest that PFLAs provide the best correlation coefficient.Comparatively,the emitter with the unsymmetrical dentate structure and shorter flow path (Emitter C) had the best anti-clogging capability.By optimizing the dentate structure,the internal flow pattern within the flow path could be enhanced as an important method to control the biofilm within emitter flow path.This study established electron microscope techniques and biochemical microbial analysis methods that may provide a framework for future emitter biofilm studies.     

水淬渣人工湿地强化除磷作用研究

研究了水淬渣的磷吸附-解吸效果,构建了以水淬渣为主要基质的模拟垂直流人工湿地系统,分析了水力停留时间(HRT)和污染负荷变化对污水中磷去除的影响,探讨了湿地上行、下行流单元各层基质的除磷贡献.结果表明,水淬渣基质的磷饱和吸附量为3 333 mg.kg-1,其水溶性钙含量为0.084%,pH值为7.54,适合作为湿地除磷基质.HRT与磷除去率呈正相关,当HRT从1 d缩短为0.5 d时,TP去除率降低5.9%~4.7%,当HRT从2 d缩短为1 d时,TP去除率降低2.4%~4.7%,HRT为1 d条件下,水淬渣湿地的磷去除率>85%,说明无限延长HRT无益于强化除磷,适宜的HRT为1 d.在进水浓度稳定的条件下,进水污染负荷与磷去除率呈负相关,当污染负荷范围在12.2~36.8 g.(m2.d)-1时,水淬渣湿地的磷除去率可维持在85%,当污染负荷达到48.9 g.(m2.d)-1后,水淬渣湿地的磷除去率下降至65%,当污染负荷<36.8 g.(m2.d)-1时,水淬渣湿地的磷去除率>82%,说明高污染负荷可抑制基质表面及孔隙中Ca、Al等吸附磷的活跃位点,适宜的进水污染负荷为24.5~36.8g.(m2.d...