城市突发公共事件风险评估

突发公共事件表现出了强烈的损失发生不确定性,企业或政府单位应主动地认识突发公共事件风险,积极管理突发公共事件风险,有效地控制突发公共事件风险,把突发公共事件风险减至最低的程度,实行突发公共事件全过程风险管理.本文主要介绍了突发公共事件风险管理的主要程序和重要内容.     

Head injuries in child pedestrian accidents--in-depth case analysis and reconstructions

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate head injuries, injury risks, and corresponding tolerance levels of children in car-to--child pedestrian collisions. METHODS: An in-depth accident analysis was carried out based on 23 accident cases involving child pedestrians. These cases were collected with detailed information about pedestrians, cars, and road environments. All 23 accidents were reconstructed using the MADYMO program with mathematical models of passenger cars and child pedestrians developed at Chalmers University of Technology. The contact properties of the car models were derived from the European New Car Assessment Program (EuroNCAP) subsystem tests. RESULTS: The accident analysis demonstrated that the head was the most frequently and severely injured body part of child pedestrians. Most accidents occurred at impact speeds lower than 40 km/h and 98% of the child pedestrians were impacted from the lateral direction. The initial postures of children at the moment of impact were identified. Nearly half (47%) of the children were running, which was remarkable compared with the situation of adult pedestrians. From accident reconstructions it was found that head impact conditions and injury severities were dependent on the shape and stiffness of the car front, impact velocity, and stature of the child pedestrian. Head injury criteria and corresponding tolerance levels were analyzed and discussed by correlating the calculated injury parameters with the injury outcomes in the accidents. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing head injuries should be set as a priority in the protection of child pedestrians. HIC is an important injury criterion for predicting the risks of head injuries in child pedestrian accidents. The tolerance level of head injuries can have a considerable variation due to individual differences of the child pedestrians. By setting a suitable speed limit and improving the design of car front, the head injury severities of child pedestrians can be reduced.     

地表UV-B辐射增强对土壤-冬小麦系统呼吸速率和N2O排放的影响

通过室外盆栽实验,用静态箱-气相色谱法测定土壤-冬小麦系统的呼吸速率和N₂O排放通量,研究了UV-B辐射增强20%对土壤-冬小麦系统的呼吸速率和N₂O排放的影响.结果表明,相同的气象条件和田间管理下,UV-B辐射增强处理对呼吸速率和N₂O排放的季节变化模式无明显影响.在返青期,UV-B辐射增强显著降低了土壤-冬小麦系统的呼吸速率,但对N₂O的排放通量没有产生显著影响;在拔节孕穗期,UV-B辐射增强处理显著降低了土壤-冬小麦系统的呼吸速率和N₂O的排放通量;在抽穗-成熟期,UV-B辐射增强处理对土壤-冬小麦系统的呼吸速率和N₂O的排放没有显著影响.返青-齐穗期,UV-B增强处理显著降低土壤-冬小麦系统的N₂O累积排放量;但从齐穗开始至小麦成熟,UV-B增强处理对土壤-冬小麦系统的N₂O累积排放量没有显著影响.     

土壤中多环芳烃的SPMD辅助解吸行为研究

为了开发一种表征土壤中憎水性有机污染物解吸及生物有效性的新方法,建立了半透膜被动采样装置（SPMD）研究土壤中有机污染物解吸行为的方法,利用SPMD分析了多环芳烃菲、芘和苯并［a］芘在3种不同性质土壤中的辅助解吸行为.结果表明,SPMD是一种很好地表征土壤中憎水性有机污染物解吸及生物有效性的手段. SPMD辅助解吸多环芳烃的效率与土壤有机质及多环芳烃性质有关.随着土壤有机质含量的降低,土壤中菲和芘的SPMD解吸率逐渐升高,对于10 mg/kg染毒水平,当土壤有机质含量由18.68%降低到0.3%时,2种化合物的解吸率分别由56.45%和48.28%上升到接近100%;但是对于苯并［a］芘,粘土表现出明显的滞留能力,在有机质含量（0.3%）很低、粘土含量（39.05%）较高的3号土壤中,苯并［a］芘的解吸率仅有66.97%.不同多环芳烃SPMD辅助解吸率差别很大,随着土壤有机质含量的降低,以及污染物浓度的提高,菲和芘的解吸差异逐渐缩小,而苯并［a］芘与上述2种多环芳烃的差异很大,主要是由于苯并［a］芘具有高度亲脂性,并且分子较大,造成其容易滞留在粘土的微孔及有机质的致密结构中.     

Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation,mitigation, and sustainable development

Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources, social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices). Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems, and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.

Examining adaptation and mitigation opportunities in the context of the integrated watershed management programme of the Government of India

India occupies 2.4% of the world’s geographical area with a large percentage of its land under agriculture. About 228 Million hectares (Mha) of its geographical area (nearly 69%) fall within the dryland (arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid) region. Of the total cultivated area of 142 Mha, major part of agriculture in the country is rainfed, extending to over 97 Mha and constituting nearly 68% of the net cultivated area, therefore making the agricultural sector vulnerable and exposed to the vagaries of weather conditions. Climate change adds to this dimension of stress. A strong need is felt for targeting programmes in these areas that address issues related to employing suitable soil and water conservation measures. In this context this paper seeks to examine the case for watershed development as an adaptive strategy. An examination of the possibility of fortifying the existing programme with a view to adapting to expected changes in climate in future is undertaken. Also, the possibility of watershed development integrating into a suitable mitigation strategy for the country is assessed.

Improvement of soil aggregate stability by repeated applications of organic amendments to a cultivated silty loam soil

The objective of this study was to compare the effects of repeated field applications of three urban compost amendments and one farmyard manure amendment over a 9-year period on aggregate stability in a silty loam soil initially characterized by low clay and initial organic matter contents and poor aggregate stability. Three different aggregate stability tests with increasing disruptive intensities (fast wetting > mechanical breakdown > slow wetting tests) and different disaggregation mechanisms, were used. All of the amendments, which were applied at approximately 4 Mg C ha⁻¹ every other year, increased the organic carbon content and improved the stability of the aggregates against the disruptive action of water, as determined by each of the stability tests. However, the year-to-year variations in the aggregate stability that related to factors other than the organic inputs were greater than the cumulative increase in aggregate stability relative to the control. The positive effects of the tested amendments on aggregate stability were linked to their contribution to soil organic C contents (r = 0.54 for the fast wetting test and r = 0.41-0.42 for the mechanical breakdown and slow wetting tests; p < 0.05). The addition of urban composts had a larger positive effect on aggregate stability than farmyard manure at the majority of sampling dates. The addition of biodegradable immature compost, such as municipal solid waste (MSW), improved the aggregate stability through an enhanced resistance to slaking. The addition of mature composts, such as the co-compost of sewage sludge and green wastes (GWS) or biowaste compost (BW), improved the aggregate stability by increasing interparticular cohesion. The MSW compost was the most efficient in improving aggregate stability during the first 6 years of the experiment (average improvements of +22%, +5% and +28% in the fast wetting, mechanical breakdown and slow wetting tests, respectively, compared to the control treatment); this result was likely due to the larger labile organic pool of the MSW compost that was highly effective at stimulating soil microbial activity. After the first 6 years, the two other composts, GWS and BW, became more efficient (average improvements of +25%, +61% and +33% in the fast wetting, mechanical breakdown and slow wetting tests, respectively, compared to the control treatment), which was probably linked to the greater increase in soil organic C contents. Therefore, the application of urban compost to silty soil that is susceptible to water erosion was effective at improving aggregate stability and thus could be used to enhance the resistance of soil to water erosion.     

Impact on sward composition and stock performance of grazing Molinia-dominant grassland

A comparative experiment was conducted to test the extent to which grazing of rank Molinia caerulea-dominated grassland increases botanical diversity and improves animal performance. The study was carried out on an area of under-grazed Molinia-dominant pasture that had not been stocked for 20 years. Three treatments were compared from 2001 until 2008: (1) no grazing, (2) grazing by Welsh Mountain sheep and (3) grazing by Welsh Black heifers. Patterns of change in sward surface composition across the grazing season were consistent with greater consumption of Molinia by the cattle, but there was little evidence of management regime influencing changes in sward composition year-on-year. There was a significant effect of year on animal performance (P < 0.001). Although the growth rates of the heifers improved over the course of the first three years of the experiment, this performance was not sustained. In contrast, any weight changes for the sheep were positive. The results highlight the slow pace of change within upland swards, and the need to develop site-specific grazing guidelines.     

Application of winery and distillery waste composts to a Jumilla (SE Spain) vineyard: Effects on the characteristics of a calcareous sandy-loam soil

The effects on different physico-chemical, chemical and biological soil properties of the incorporation of different organic materials into a calcareous vineyard soil were studied in an experiment during three growing seasons. The organic materials used were sheep manure and four composts derived from the treatment of winery and distillery wastes. A multivariate technique, factor analysis (FA), was also used for interpreting the data obtained from the samplings carried out throughout the three vine growing seasons. The application of the organic materials induced an increase in the activity of the soil microorganisms and in the soil macro and micronutrient contents, as well as a slow release of inorganic N. Through FA of the soil properties studied, three factors that explained 74.7% of the variability were established and the effects of the treatments after the whole experimental period were assessed.     

Soil fertility dynamics in runoff-capture agriculture, Canary Islands, Spain

In the extremely arid (∼150 mm yr⁻¹) eastern Canary Islands of Lanzarote, Fuerteventura and La Graciosa, agriculture has been sustained for decades by a traditional runoff-capture (RC) farming system known as “gavias”. Although the main goal of these systems is to increase water supply for crops, making unnecessary conventional irrigation, a secondary and equally important factor is that this system allows for sustainable agricultural production without addition of chemical or organic fertilizers. A field study was conducted to assess the impact of long-term agriculture (>50 yr) on soil fertility and to evaluate key factors affecting the nutrient sustainability of RC agricultural production. Soil fertility and nutrient dynamics were studied through chemical characterization of the arable layer (0-25 cm) of RC agricultural plots, adjacent natural soils (control) not affected by runoff and cultivation, and sediments contributed by a series of RC events. Results showed that RC soils have enhanced fertility status, particularly because they are less affected by salinity and sodicity (mean electrical conductivity = 1.8 dS m⁻¹ vs. 51.0 dS m⁻¹ in control soils; mean exchangeable sodium percentage = 11.1% vs. 30.6% in control soils), and have higher water and nutrient holding capacities (mean clay plus silt contents ≈87% vs. 69% in control soils). In general, sediments transported with the runoff and deposited in RC plots (average sediment yield ≈ 46 ton ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), contain sufficient nutrients to prevent a progressive reduction of essential plant nutrients below natural levels in spite of nutrient uptake and removal by the harvested crop. Average additions of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium with the runoff sediments were 33.6, 35.3 and 48.8 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively. Results of this study show how a crop production system can be sustained in the long term by natural hydrological and biogeochemical catchment processes. This system maintains a nutrient balance that is not based on energy-intensive inputs of fertilizers, but is integrated in natural nutrient cycling processes, unlike other tropical farming agroecosystems.