城市火灾的马尔可夫链预测方法

对1951-2004年间城市火灾起火数据进行分析,可以看出城市火灾发生率具有马尔可夫性.用马尔可夫链预测方法对2005年城市火灾发生率进行了预测,得到预测值与实际值完全吻合.用1991-2004年间城市火灾发生的实际数据对该方法进行了检验,说明该方法的可行性.预测结果表明,马尔可夫链预测方法用于城市火灾发生率及其分级的预测是一种切实可行的方法.     

人本理念与公共安全

事故发生后,有效的补救可以减轻伤害,然而一个基本的事实是,任何事后的弥补措施,都将无法挽回那些在灾难中失去的可贵生命。我们不得不重新思考预防为主的原则,因为唯有如此,才能够通过各种有效的措旋,尽可能在事前避免事故发生或减轻事故危害程度。然而,如何才能达到有效的预防？对预防而言,什么才是深层次的决定因素？     

Effect of the ecological water conveyance project on environment in the Lower Tarim River, Xinjiang, China

The dynamic response of groundwater level is examined in traverse and lengthways directions. Take the Yinsu section for an example, we have simulated groundwater levels before and after water-conveyance every time and calculated the incidence of groundwater on the both sides of the river. It is noted that the effect keeps growing with the water-delivery times increasing, from 570 m after the first times to 3,334 m after the eighth times. In addition, this paper involves the temporal response of the natural vegetation to water conveyance, vegetation coverage, planted-species number, dominant position and species diversity from 2002 to 2006. The findings indicate that the positive influence of ecological water conveyance project (EWCP) on the ecosystem in the Lower Tarim River is a long-term process. In this paper, we try to calculate water required for recovery of damaged ecosystem by using data available. This project is likely the base of research on water demand and the reference of measures for research on ecological water conveyance effect.     

Evaluation of nitrification inhibitor 3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate on nitrogen leaching in undisturbed soil columns

The application of nitrogen fertilizers leads to various ecological problems such as nitrate leaching. The use of nitrification inhibitors (NI) as nitrate leaching retardants is a proposal that has been suggested for inclusion in regulations in many countries. In this study, the efficacy of the new NI, 3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate (DMPP), was tested under simulated high-risk leaching situations in two types of undisturbed soil columns. The results showed that the accumulative leaching losses of soil nitrate under treatment of urea with 1.0% DMPP, from columns of silt loam soil and heavy clay soil, were 66.8% and 69.5% lower than those soil columns tested with regular urea application within the 60 days observation, respectively. However, the losses of ammonium leaching were reversely increased 9.7% and 6.7% under the former treatment than the latter one. Application of regular urea with 1.0% DMPP addition can reduce about 59.3%-63.1% of total losses of inorganic nitrogen via leaching. The application of DMPP to urea had stimulated the inhibition effects of DMPP on the ammonium nitrification process in the soil up to 60 days. It is proposed that the DMPP could be used as an effective NI to control inorganic N leaching losses, minimizing the risk of nitrate pollution in shallow groundwater.     

Influence of the DMPP (3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate) on nitrogen transformation and leaching in multi-layer soil columns

The application of nitrogen fertilizers leads to various ecological problems such as nitrate leaching. The use of nitrification inhibitors as nitrate leaching retardants is a proposal that has been suggested for inclusion in regulations in many countries. In this study, using a multi-layer soil column device, the influence of new nitrification inhibitor DMPP (3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate) was studied for understanding the nitrogen vertical transformation and lowering the nitrate leaching at different soil profile depths. The results indicated that, within 60 d of experiment, the regular urea added 1.0% DMPP can effectively inhibit the ammonium oxidation in the soil, and improve the ammonium concentration in soil solution over the 20cm depths of soil profile, while decline the concentrations of nitrate and nitrite. No obvious difference was found on ammonium concentrations in soil solution collected from deep profile under 20cm depths between regular urea and the urea added 1.0% DMPP. There was also no significant difference for the nitrate, ammonium and nitrite concentrations in the soil solution under 40cm depths of soil profile with the increasing nitrogen application level, among the treatments of urea added 1.0% DMPP within 60 d. It is proposed that DMPP could be used as an effective nitrification inhibitor in some region to control ammonium oxidation and decline the ion-nitrogen leaching, minimizing the shallow groundwater pollution risk and being beneficial for the ecological environment.     

Zinc and cadmium accumulation and tolerance in populations of Sedum alfredii

To investigate the variation of Zn and Cd accumulation and tolerance of Sedum alfredii (a newly reported Zn/Cd hyperaccumulator), field surveys and hydroponic experiments were conducted among three populations of this species: two originating from old Pb/Zn mines in Zhejiang (ZJ) and Hunan (HN) Provinces and one from a "clean" site in Guangdong (GD) Province, China. Under field conditions, up to 12,524 and 12,253 mg kg(-1) Zn, and 1400 and 97 mg kg(-1) Cd in shoots of ZJ and HN plants were recorded respectively. Under hydroponic conditions, ZJ and HN plants accumulated significantly higher Zn and Cd in their leaves and stems, and possessed significantly higher Zn and Cd tolerance than GD plants. Among the two contaminated populations, ZJ plants showed higher Cd tolerance and accumulation (in leaves) than HN plants. The present results indicate that significant differences in Zn and Cd accumulation and tolerance exist in populations of S. alfredii.     

冬季自然通风对住宅室内空气品质的改善性能评价

为获得理想的自然通风方式,以改善寒冷地区住宅冬季室内空气品质、营造舒适的室内环境,采用现场实测和理论分析相结合的方法,对冬季自然通风中的室内外环境参数进行了测试,得到了室外环境参数、人工调节方式对室内环境参数及空气品质的影响特征; 针对舒适与健康的双重要求是寒冷地区住宅冬季通风的主要矛盾这一特点,分别采用临界温度、热舒适性、排污效率、人工调节便捷性等指标对不同方案的通风性能进行了评价.结果表明,采用18 ℃的临界温度可保证采暖所需的热能最低值,同时也有利于抑制甲醛、氨等的释放及挥发速率; 各房间的热舒适性均满足相关规范要求,即本文所列举的这4种方案在执行过程中并没有牺牲房间的热舒适性,只是稍微有些偏凉.方案6的排污效率最高,为88%,方案8次之,方案3最低.这与方案6中两进风口关于回风口对称布置,室内平均空气龄最短有关; 4种方案具有相同的人工调节便捷性.综合各方面因素,方案6为本文最佳通风方案.     

Different reaction mechanisms of diphenylether and 4-bromodiphenylether with nitrous acid in the 355 nm laser flash photolysis of mixed aqueous solution

The microscopic reaction mechanisms of diphenylether (DPE) and 4-bromodiphenylether (4-BrDPE) with nitrous acid (HNO(2)) in the absence of O(2) have been explored by the 355nm laser flash photolysis. It was proposed that OH radical, from the photolysis of HNO(2), added to DPE forms the C(12)H(10)O-OH adduct while added to 4-BrDPE forms the 4-BrDPE-OH and 4-BrOH-DPE adducts. The first-order decay rate constants of the C(12)H(10)O-OH adduct, 4-BrDPE-OH adduct and 4-BrOH-DPE adduct were measured to be (1.86+/-0.14)x10(5)s(-1), (2.19+/-0.04)x10(5)s(-1) and (1.56+/-0.03)x10(5)s(-1), respectively. The final photolysis products of DPE and HNO(2) identified by GC/MS analysis were phenol, o-hydroxydiphenylether, p-hydroxydiphenylether and p-nitrodiphenylether, while the final photolysis product of 4-BrDPE and HNO(2) identified by LC/MS analysis was mainly the dimer.     

近岸海域水质目标考核评价方法研究

为满足《水污染防治行动计划》近岸海域水质考核要求,根据目前近岸海域环境监测工作的实际情况,在考核范围、评价方法、目标分解、计分方法等方面进行了比较,在保证公平、公正的前提下,以一致性、可比性和适应性为原则,提出的考核评价方法以单因子评价法和点位评价法为基础,在未达标情况下,按照水质目标完成比例计分;达标情况下,在达标分值基础上按水质的保持和改善给予不同程度的加分,通过实例研究分析能够适应近岸海域水质状况变化的考核工作要求。     

Nitrogen enrichment in runoff sediments as affected by soil texture in Beijing mountain area

Enrichment ratio (ER) is widely used in nonpoint source pollution models to estimate the nutrient loss associated with soil erosion. The objective of this study was to determine the ER of total nitrogen (ER_N) in the sediments eroded from the typical soils with varying soil textures in Beijing mountain area. Each of the four soils was packed into a 40 by 30 by 15 cm soil pan and received 40-min simulated rainfalls at the intensity of 90 mm h^?1 on five slopes. ER_N for most sediments were above unity, indicating the common occurrence of nitrogen enrichment accompanied with soil erosion in Beijing mountain area. Soil texture was not the only factor that influenced N enrichment in this experiment since the ER_N for the two fine-textured soils were not always lower. Soil properties such as soil structure might exert a more important influence in some circumstances. The selective erosion of clay particles was the main reason for N enrichment, as implied by the significant positive correlation between the ER of total nitrogen and clay fraction in eroded sediments. Significant regression equations between ER_N and sediment yield were obtained for two pairs of soils, which were artificially categorized by soil texture. The one for fine-textured soils had greater intercept and more negative slope. Thus, the initially higher ER_N would be lower than that for the other two soils with coarser texture once the sediment yield exceeded 629 kg ha^?1.