Vulnerability of agro-ecological zones in India under the earth system climate model scenarios

India being a developing economy dependent on climate-sensitive sector like agriculture is highly vulnerable to impacts of global climate change. Vulnerability to climate change, however, differs spatially within the country owing to regional differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The study uses the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) climate projections to assess the dynamics in vulnerability across four climate change exposure scenarios developed using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The analysis was carried out at subnational (district) level; the results were interpreted and reported for their corresponding agro-ecological zones. Vulnerability of each district was quantified using indicators capturing climatic variability, ecological and demographic sensitivity, and socio-economic capacity. Our analysis further assigns probabilities to vulnerability classes of all the 579 districts falling under different agro-ecological zones. The results of the vulnerability profile show that Western plains, Northern plains, and central highlands of the arid and semi-arid agro-ecological zones are the most vulnerable regions in the current scenario (1950–2000). In the future scenario (2050), it extends along districts falling within Deccan plateau and Central (Malwa) highlands, lying in the arid and semi-arid zones, along with regions vulnerable in the current scenario, recording the highest vulnerability score across all exposure scenarios. These regions exhibit highest degree of variation in climatic parameters, ecological fragility, socio-economic marginality, and limited accessibility to resources, generating conditions of high vulnerability. The study emphasizes on the priority to take up adaptive management actions in the identified vulnerable districts to not only reduce risks of climate change, but also enhance their inherent capacity to withstand any future changes in climate. It provides a systematic approach to explicitly identify vulnerable regions, where regional planners and policy makers can build on existing adaptation decision-making by utilizing an interdisciplinary approach in the context of global change scenario.     

Identification of structural breaks in the forest product markets: how sensitive are to changes in the Nordic region?

Forests play a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and can be managed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and conserve or sequester carbon. Global policy and environmental changes can affect regional consumption of forest products, as well as inter-regional trade of forest goods and services. This study analyzes global and regional change impacts on the production, consumption and trade of forest products in two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden. Annual data on removal and trade (1964–2012) for roundwood and sawnwood is used to identify structural breaks based on Chow tests. According to the analysis, the time period is divided into two periods: t1 (1964–1980) and t2 (1981–2012). In the first period, breaks occurred in 1975 and 1976 in the Finnish model and no break is found in the Swedish model. In the second period, we identify breaks in 1991 and 1992 for the Finnish model and in 2004, 2005 and 2006 for the Swedish model. Although our findings have broad empirical support, we do not identify any specific incident as a direct cause of the changes in the consumption and trade patterns of the two types of wood in these countries. The models and analysis presented here can serve as methodological tools for policymakers to better understand the effects of structural changes in the production of forest goods and services in the Nordic region and globally.     

The European Union Solidarity Fund: an assessment of its recent reforms

After extensive flooding in 2002, the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) was created as an ex post loss-financing vehicle for EU member states and candidate countries in the case of disasters that exceed the government’s resources to cope. The EUSF is viewed as a valuable instrument for pooling risk among countries in Europe and potentially as a model for financing loss and damage from climate change in vulnerable countries worldwide. This paper assesses its future prospects taking account of reforms adopted in 2014. Our analysis is based on three recognized aims of the Solidarity Fund: its promotion of solidarity with those countries having the least capacity to cope with major disasters; its contribution to proactive disaster risk reduction and management (climate adaptation); and its robustness with regard to its risk of depletion (stress testing). Using a simulation approach for future disasters, we conclude that the reformed EUSF’s risk of depletion, although it is reasonably robust to more frequent disasters, could be reduced by increasing member state contributions and/or engaging in risk transfer. The European Commission has taken important steps in linking the fund to proactive risk reduction; yet, by changing its budgeting practices, the commission could be more proactive in encouraging risk management in member states. In its current form, the EUSF does not embed needs-based solidarity. Lower-income “new” member states have received disproportionately less compensation in terms of eligible losses, although on average, they have received more disaster aid than what they contribute to the fund. Solidarity could be enhanced by changing the rules for disbursing aid. After briefly describing alternative risk-pooling models in the Caribbean, Africa, and Europe, we suggest how design features of the EUSF as compared to other regional risk pools can inform discussions on the Warsaw International Loss and Damage Mechanism.     

Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China

We present a methodology for using a domestic water use time series that were obtained from Yellow River Conservancy Commission, together with the climatic records from the National Climate Center of China to evaluate the effects of climate variability on water use in the Yellow River Basin. A suit of seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were adopted to anticipate future climate patterns in the Yellow River. The historical records showed evidences of rises in temperature and subsequent rises in domestic water demand in the basin. For Upstream of Longyangxia region, the impact was the least, with only 0.0021?×?10⁸ m³ for a temperature increase of 1 °C; while for Longyangxia-Lanzhou region, domestic water use was found to increase to 0.18?×?10⁸ m³ when temperature increases 1 °C. Downstream of Huayuankou was the region with the most changes in temperature that gave the highest increase of 1.95?×?10⁸ m³ in domestic water demand for 1 °C of change of temperature. Downstream of Huayuankou was identified as the most vulnerable area, where domestic water demand increases nearly by 42.2 % with 1 °C increase of temperature. Judging from the trends of temperature range, we concluded that future temperature in Yellow River Basin has an increasing tendency. This could worsen the existing issues of domestic water demand and even more to trigger high competition among different water-using sectors.     

Diagnosing institutional barriers and opportunities for adaptation to climate change

Institutions are one of the decisive factors which enable, constrain and shape adaptation to the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme events. However, current understanding of institutions in adaptation situations is fragmented across the scientific community, evidence diverges, and cumulative learning beyond single studies is limited. This study adopts a diagnostic approach to elaborate a nuanced understanding of institutional barriers and opportunities in climate adaptation by means of a model-centred meta-analysis of 52 case studies of public climate adaptation in Europe. The first result is a novel taxonomy of institutional attributes in adaptation situations. It conceptually organises and decomposes the many details of institutions that empirical research has shown to shape climate adaptation. In the second step, the paper identifies archetypical patterns of institutional traps and trade-offs which hamper adaptation. Thirdly, corresponding opportunities are identified that enable actors to alleviate, prevent or overcome specific institutional traps or trade-offs. These results cast doubt on the validity of general institutional design principles for successful adaptation. In contrast to generic principles, the identified opportunities provide leverage to match institutions to specific governance problems that are encountered in specific contexts. Taken together, the results may contribute to more coherence and integration of adaptation research that we need if we are to foster learning about the role of institutions in adaptation situations in a cumulative fashion.     

Increasing the application of gas engines to decrease China’s GHG emissions

This paper employs a review of the technical literature to estimate the potential decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that could be achieved by increasing the application of gas engines in China in three sectors: urban public transport vehicle; shipping; and thermal power plants. China’s gas engine development strategies and three types of gas resource are discussed in the study, which indicates that gas engines could decrease GHG emissions by 520 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO_2e) by 2020. This would account for 9.7 % of the government’s target for decreasing GHG emissions and is dominated by methane recovery from the use of coal mine gas (CMG) and landfill gas (LFG) for power generation. In the public urban transport vehicle and shipping sectors the low price of natural gas and the increasing demand for the control of harmful emissions could spur the rapid uptake of gas engine vehicles. However, the development of CMG- and LFG-fuelled power plants has been limited by the unwillingness of local enterprises to invest in high-performance gas engine generators and the associated infrastructure. Therefore, further compulsory policies that promote CMG use and LFG recovery should be implemented. Moreover, strict regulations on limiting methane leakage during the production and distribution of gas fuels are urgently needed in China to prevent leakage causing GHG emissions and largely negating the climate benefits of fuel substitution. Strategies for increasing the application of gas engines, promoting gas resources and recovering methane in China are instrumental in global GHG mitigation strategies.     

An empirical analysis of energy efficiency measures applicable to cities,regions, and local governments,based on the case of South Korea’s local energy saving program

As highlighted in the outcome of the Paris Agreement at the 21st Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change there has been a recent push for the stronger mitigation actions of cities, regions, and local governments. Energy efficiency is a tool that can be leveraged by not only industry or national governments but also cities, regions, and local governments for mitigation purposes. However, studies on energy efficiency as a mitigation tool thus far have focused on the national or transnational scale, and on certain sectors of industry. The purpose of this paper is to find the most cost-efficient energy efficiency measures (EEMs) at the city, region, and local government level. To that end, this paper examines the yearly energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction intensity, as well as energy savings and GHG reduction efficiency, in the case of EEMs conducted by South Korean local governments. Yearly energy savings intensity and GHG reduction intensity are estimated to be in the range of 0.094～0.375 tonne of oil equivalent (TOE)/M-KRW (million Korean won) and 0.287～1.180 tCO2e/M-KRW. Results show that inverter installation at water and sewage treatment plants and improvement of pump efficiency are the most cost-efficient EEMs. Moreover, energy savings efficiency and GHG reduction efficiency are within the range of 18.29～45.31 %, at an average of 30.5 % GHG reduction potential. If this reduction potential is applied to the buildings and facilities regulated and run by cities/local governments, there is a worldwide reduction potential of 1.023 billion tCO₂ compared to 2020 business as usual levels.     

自适应智能电磁防护材料测试方法研究

目的在强电磁场环境下研究自适应智能电磁防护材料的相变特性。方法针对自适应智能电磁防护材料相变前后电导率的变化范围大、需要强场激励状况,考虑测试系统强场生成、大动态范围、测试精度以及相应的绝缘性和较高的安全性要求,采用电容充放电原理设计强场激励测试电路,搭建绝缘环境,确保操作的安全性和测试数据的可靠性。结果利用测试系统对现有商业化电阻器进行验证试验,得到的特性曲线与理论相一致。结论测试系统能够满足自适应智能电磁防护材料相变特性试验的需求,可获取有效且可靠的测试数据。     

带支撑基坑围檩受力性状分析及数值模拟

通过对带支撑基坑围檩受力性状的分析,提出支撑与围檩正交、斜交分别对应的几种基坑围檩轴力分布形式,并以武汉市凯德广场古田项目为例,从实测数据出发,分析了基坑围檩轴力的变化规律,在对基坑内支撑平面有限元计算中设置在围檩上的边界条件的特性进行深入研究的基础上,使用数值模拟手段对基坑围檩轴力进行了计算与数值模拟验证。结果表明:与开挖工况一致,围檩轴力呈现"两阶段"增长过程,地下室主体结构施工完成后,围檩轴力趋于稳定;桩(墙)平行于围檩走向的切向约束客观存在,本例中围檩轴力呈现梯形交替递增分布形式;桩(墙)对围檩的约束方向包括切向和法向,其约束形式表现为线约束和弹性约束。     

基于预应力杆的空间桁架天线固有频率调节技术

目的研究预应力杆对大型空间桁架天线固有频率影响,提出采用作动器实时对在轨空间天线低阶固有频率进行调整,主动避免共振现象发生。方法针对大型空间桁架天线结构有限元模型,采用降温法对桁架杆施加预应力,重点分析预应力大小、预应力杆位置、预应力杆数量对整体结构固有频率的影响。结果增加预应力大小、合理布置预应力杆位置、增加预应力杆数量能够增加空间桁架天线固有频率的改变率。结论合理优化空间桁架天线上预应力杆,可实现对在轨运行的空间桁架天线低阶固有频率实时调整,可为空间桁架天线避振设计提供参考。