中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

Hot,Salty Water: A Confluence of Issues in Managing Stormwater Runoff for Urban Streams

Research increasingly highlights cause and effect relationships between urbanization and stream conditions are complex and highly variable across physical and biological regions. Research also demonstrates stormwater runoff is a key causal agent in altering stream conditions in urban settings. More specifically, thermal pollution and high salt levels are two consequences of urbanization and subsequent runoff. This study describes a demonstration model populated with data from a high gradient headwaters stream. The model was designed to explain surface water‐groundwater dynamics related to salinity and thermal pollution. Modeled scenarios show long‐term additive impacts from salt application and suggest reducing flow rates, as stormwater management practices are typically designed to do, have the potential to greatly reduce salt concentrations and simultaneously reduce thermal pollution. This demonstration model offers planners and managers reason to be confident that stormwater management efforts can have positive impacts.     

Improving photostability and efficiency of polymeric luminescent solar concentrators by PMMA/MgO nanohybrid coatings

MgO nanocrystals were synthesized and doped with different concentrations in poly(methylmethacrylate) (PMMA) to prepare hybrid organic-inorganic coatings based on polymer nanohybrid thin films. The nanoparticles were found to be spherical with 62 nm diameter as determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and atomic force microscope (AFM). The coatings were characterized by spectroscopic tools such as optical absorption, transmission and fluorescence spectroscopy. The prepared nanohybrid films were spin-coated on cost-effective luminescent PMMA substrates doped with highly efficient luminescent dyes luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs). The outdoor photostability tests demonstrated enhanced protection against UVA radiation for coated LSCs compared to bare LSC substrates. The current–voltage characteristics of commercially produced LSC prototypes showed that the poor UV response of monocrystalline silicon solar cell can be improved by for LSCs coated by PMMA/MgO nanohybrid films which act as luminescent down shifting layer (LDSL).     

响应面法优化甘蔗渣-污泥复合活性炭的制备工艺

为了提高污泥活性炭的吸附性能以提升其实际应用价值,提出在污泥中掺杂甘蔗渣制备复合活性炭,并采用Plackett-Burman联用响应面法对影响复合活性炭碘值的条件进行筛选优化。通过Plackett-Burman实验筛选出热解温度、热解时间和甘蔗渣与污泥干重比为主要影响因素,对这3个因素进行Box-Behnken实验,经响应面优化得到影响碘值的二次响应曲面模型,模型显示热解温度与热解时间、热解温度与干重比的交互作用显著,并确定了最佳制备条件:热解温度550℃、热解时间30 min和干重比50%,此时复合活性炭碘值为814 mg/g,优于未优化条件下制备的复合活性炭。通过比表面积、孔结构和碘值的测定以及元素和扫描电镜分析得出,甘蔗渣的掺杂提高了复合活性炭的比表面积、微孔体积、碘值及含碳量。研究结果表明,甘蔗渣掺杂和制备条件优化是提高污泥活性炭吸附性能的有效手段。     

中国春季降水与南印度洋偶极子的关系研究

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局海温资料和1951~2010年中国160站月降水量资料,分析了前期冬季（12~2月）印度洋海表温度与中国160站春季降水的关系及其影响机制。研究表明：冬季印度洋海温异常的空间模态主要有两种：符号一致的单极和东、西符号相反的南印度偶极。将第2模态的时间系数定义为南印度洋偶极子指数。该指数与中国次年春季降水关系较好,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行机制分析,发现主要南印度洋偶极子通过以下途径影响中国春季降水：中高纬,SIOD的影响主要引起低纬度的海温及对流异常,通过中低纬度间的相互作用,在中高纬产生较强的遥响应,从而影响同期冬季欧亚大陆的环流变化,这种扰动在西风气流的作用下引起后期春季北太平洋地区对流活动异常,通过中低纬度间的相互作用,加强中高纬地区的遥响应,表现为欧亚大陆EUP波列;低纬,SIOD的影响主要引起南海-海洋性大陆的海温及对流异常,引发经向环流异常,导致黄河至长江中下游地区垂直运动异常和气流辐合异常     

湖南省四水流域水沙周期特征及其影响因素分析

采用复小波变换和M K非参数检验的方法分析了湖南省四水流域主要控制站1951~2011年径流量与输沙量周期规律和突变特征。结果表明：(1)湖南四水径流量存在多个波动增加和波动减少的波动变化现象,但无显著变化趋势;而输沙量虽然有一定的波动,但总体上呈波动减少变化态势,而且下降趋势较显著;(2)湘潭站、桃江站和桃源站径流量和输沙量存在20~25 a的第一主周期,而石门站径流量和输沙量的第一主周期不具有一致性,径流量主周期为2 a,输沙量主周期为13 a,但其径流量和输沙量第二、三主周期变化规律相吻合,均为3~5 a的周期;(3)大量的水利工程建设是导致输沙量减少的主要原因,径流量的变化与降水的变化规律较为一致     

Adaptive properties of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale Wigg. s.l.) under conditions of air pollution by motor vehicle exhausts

Microcalorimetric, gasometric, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) methods have been used to evaluate heat production, gas exchange, and root membrane permeability in dandelion of different morphological forms from populations exposed to different levels of air pollution. The results show that these forms differ in the level of energy metabolism and that the form with a higher metabolic level (T. off. f. dahlstedtii) is more tolerant of air pollution with motor vehicle exhausts.     

On characteristics of the brown rat,Rattus norvegicus Berk. (1769), in the meadow steppes of the Elbrus variant in the Central Caucasus

The blood system parameters (erythropoiesis in bone marrow, peripheral blood) of brown rat have been studied for the first time in the foothills of the Central Caucasus. Several species-specific features of these parameters have been revealed that distinguishing the brown rat from other representatives of the family Muridae.     

Pathways of rural change: an integrated assessment of metabolic patterns in emerging ruralities

While rural transformations are nothing new in human history, current processes of rural change occur under multiple forces at an unprecedented pace, involving profound and unexpected changes in land use and users, and rapid transformations in the metabolic patterns of rural systems. The present special section aims to shed light on current drivers and pathways of rural change by analyzing, under a common conceptual and theoretical framework, examples of new ruralities that are emerging as responses across different world regions. Within this context, this introduction presents: (1) common research questions of the six presented cases of rural change; (2) the general theoretical and methodological framework of integrated assessment of societal metabolism adopted to analyze rural systems and (3) the main contributions and conclusions that could be drawn from six context-specific case studies from Asia, Latin America and Europe.