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91.
Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Sandra Brown Myrna Hall Ken Andrasko Fernando Ruiz Walter Marzoli Gabriela Guerrero Omar Masera Aaron Dushku Ben DeJong Joseph Cornell 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1001-1026
Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C)
emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key
elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the
projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change
being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging
from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more
complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic
factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest
Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model.
The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State,
Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico.
A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines.
In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest
loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations
of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance
were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable)
in explaining empirical land-use patterns.
We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing
credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond
10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change
and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed
project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the
second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using
a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year
baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock
estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final
step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed.
This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new
roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation
could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated
into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection. 相似文献
92.
93.
Nina Rønsted Seana K. Walsh Margaret Clark Merlin Edmonds Tim Flynn Scott Heintzman Alexander Loomis David Lorence Uma Nagendra Ben Nyberg Michael Opgenorth Lauren Weisenberger Adam Williams Dustin Wolkis Kenneth R. Wood Matthew Keir 《Conservation biology》2022,36(4):e13896
The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) is the world's most comprehensive information source on the global conservation status of species. Governmental agencies and conservation organizations increasingly rely on IUCN Red List assessments to develop conservation policies and priorities. Funding agencies use the assessments as evaluation criteria, and researchers use meta-analysis of red-list data to address fundamental and applied conservation science questions. However, the circa 143,000 IUCN assessments represent a fraction of the world's biodiversity and are biased in regional and organismal coverage. These biases may affect conservation priorities, funding, and uses of these data to understand global patterns. Isolated oceanic islands are characterized by high endemicity, but the unique biodiversity of many islands is experiencing high extinction rates. The archipelago of Hawaii has one of the highest levels of endemism of any floristic region; 90% of its 1367 native vascular plant taxa are classified as endemic. We used the IUCN's assessment of the complete single-island endemic (SIE) vascular plant flora of Kauai, Hawaii, to assess the proportion and drivers of decline of threatened plants in an oceanic island setting. We compared the IUCN assessments with federal, state, and other local assessments of Kauai species or taxa of conservation concern. Finally, we conducted a preliminary assessment for all 1044 native vascular plants of Hawaii based on IUCN criterion B by estimating area of occupancy, extent of occurrence, and number of locations to determine whether the pattern found for the SIE vascular flora of Kauai is comparable to the native vascular flora of the Hawaiian Islands. We compared our results with patterns observed for assessments of other floras. According to IUCN, 256 SIE vascular plant taxa are threatened with extinction and 5% are already extinct. This is the highest extinction risk reported for any flora to date. The preliminary assessment of the native vascular flora of Hawaii showed that 72% (753 taxa) is threatened. The flora of Hawaii may be one of the world's most threatened; thus, increased and novel conservation measures in the state and on other remote oceanic islands are urgently needed. 相似文献
94.
A Water Allocation Decision‐Support Model and Tool for Predictions in Ungauged Basins in Northeast British Columbia,Canada 下载免费PDF全文
Allan R. Chapman Ben Kerr David Wilford 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2018,54(3):676-693
Pressures on water resources due to changing climate, increasing demands, and enhanced recognition of environmental flow needs result in the need for hydrology information to support informed water allocation decisions. However, the absence of hydrometric measurements and limited access to hydrology information in many areas impairs water allocation decision‐making. This paper describes a water balance‐based modeling approach and an innovative web‐based decision‐support hydrology tool developed to address this need. Using high‐resolution climate, vegetation, and watershed data, a simple gridded water balance model, adjusted to account for locational variability, was developed and calibrated against gauged watersheds, to model mean annual runoff. Mean monthly runoff was modeled empirically, using multivariate regression. The modeled annual runoff results are within 20% of the observed mean annual discharge for 78% of the calibration watersheds, with a mean absolute error of 16%. Modeled monthly runoff corresponds well to observed monthly runoff, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe statistic of 0.92 and a median Spearman rank correlation statistic of 0.98. Monthly and annual flow estimates produced from the model are incorporated into a map‐ and watershed‐based decision‐support system referred to as the Northeast Water Tool, to provide critical information to decision makers and others on natural water supply, existing allocations, and the needs of the environment. 相似文献
95.
Ben Jabeur Rim Fguiri Ali Jeday Mohamed-Razak Chekir Hassan Fatnassi Hicham Marvillet Christophe 《Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management》2018,20(3):1857-1866
Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - This work presents an energy analysis of an industrial plant of production of Di-ammonium Phosphate (DAP plant). It aims to evaluate the important... 相似文献
96.
Armijo de Vega C Ojeda Benítez S Ramírez Barreto ME 《Waste management (New York, N.Y.)》2008,28(Z1):S21-S26
Integrated waste management systems are one of the greatest challenges for sustainable development. For these systems to be successful, the first step is to carry out waste characterization studies. In this paper are reported the results of a waste characterization study performed in the Campus Mexicali I of the Autonomous University of Baja California (UABC). The aim of this study was to set the basis for implementation of a recovery, reduction and recycling waste management program at the campus. It was found that the campus Mexicali I produces 1ton of solid wastes per day; more than 65% of these wastes are recyclable or potentially recyclable. These results showed that a program for segregation and recycling is feasible on a University Campus. The study also showed that the local market for recyclable waste, under present conditions - number of recycling companies and amounts of recyclables accepted - can absorb all of these wastes. Some alternatives for the potentially recyclables wastes are discussed. Finally some strategies that could be used to reduce waste at the source are discussed as well. 相似文献
97.
This paper describes a modelling approach used to investigate the significance of key factors (vehicle type, compaction type, site design, temporal effects) in influencing the variability in observed nett amenity bin weights produced by household waste recycling centres (HWRCs). This new method can help to quickly identify sites that are producing significantly lighter bins, enabling detailed back-end analyses to be efficiently targeted and best practice in HWRC operation identified. Tested on weigh ticket data from nine HWRCs across West Sussex, UK, the model suggests that compaction technique, vehicle type, month and site design explained 76% of the variability in the observed nett amenity weights. For each factor, a weighting coefficient was calculated to generate a predicted nett weight for each bin transaction and three sites were subsequently identified as having similar characteristics but returned significantly different mean nett bin weights. Waste and site audits were then conducted at the three sites to try and determine the possible sources of the remaining variability. Significant differences were identified in the proportions of contained waste (bagged), wood, and dry recyclables entering the amenity waste stream, particularly at one site where significantly less contaminated waste and dry recyclables were observed. 相似文献
98.
99.
Ibtihel Saidi Olfa Ben Said Jamel Ben Abdelmalek Soufiane Jouili Luis Chicharo Hamouda Beyrem 《Chemistry and Ecology》2013,29(8):746-774
ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to assess the consequences of human impact on the characteristics of sediments heavy metal concentration, grain size and its influence on the structure of the microbial and meiofaunal community assemblages. A survey was carried out in July 2013 within six sites located in the Bizerte Lagoon (Tunisia), both downstream and upstream of industrial effluents. The highest total sediment metal concentrations were detected in stations located close to the industrial sewage discharge points. In these stations, the lowest densities of the total meiofauna (33?±?13?ind/10?cm?2) and conversely the highest densities of cultivable bacteria that are heavy metal resistant have been reported (16?±?80.34?CFU?g?1). Univariate (ANOVA) and multivariate (MDS/CCA) analyses demonstrate high dissimilarity (0.06) in meiofaunal and bacterial community structures between downstream and upstream industrial sewages. Furthermore, canonical correspondence analysis CCA results indicated that heavy metal sediment contamination promoted bacteria that are resistant to heavy metals, while heterotrophic bacteria supported the development of meiofauna taxa. The results highlight the importance of bacteria/meiofauna interactions, as both meiofaunal and microbial communities give indications of the ecological impact of heavy metal contamination in sediment. 相似文献
100.
Previous studies that have investigated relationships between the lunar cycle and recreational fishing success have all suffered from various problems—most notably, the failure to account for potential confounders in a statistically rigorous manner. We propose methods to account for season, fisher identity, fishing effort, day, and variation in biomass, all of which have previously either been omitted or handled in an ad hoc way. These are applied to two sets of data on recreational fishing of the snapper Pagrus auratus in New Zealand. In addition to estimating effects due to lunar phase, we also implement these methods to analyse the performance of a lunar-based indigenous M ${{\bar{\mathrm{a}}}}$ ori fishing calendar. Recreational fishers in New Zealand often make use of such calendars in order to predict fishing success on specific days, however little is known about the performance of such predictions or whether they hold any practical use to the everyday angler. A relationship between lunar phase and fishing success is identified, as well as support for some aspects of the M ${{\bar{\mathrm{a}}}}$ ori fishing calendar predictions. The magnitudes of these effects are small, however, casting doubt on the practical relevance of lunar based fishing predictions. In addition to the known seasonal trend associated with annual migration, an unexpected second trend is detected, and postulated to be associated with intense local fishing pressure over the summer vacation period. 相似文献