In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure
data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary
information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual
influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this
paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC)
data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on
the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses
due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the
help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must,
however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements
compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution
LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling
aspects. 相似文献
Adaptive maritime spatial planning (MSP) uses monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of spatial and temporal management
measures to promote understanding and improve planning and decision-making. An adaptive approach to MSP involves exploring
alternative ways to meet management objectives, predicting the outcomes of alternative management measures, implementing one
or more of these alternative management measures, monitoring to learn about the effects of management measures, and then using
the results to update knowledge and adjust management actions. A monitoring and evaluation plan should be designed to be both
cost effective and comprehensive. The process of setting and assessing performance metrics requires that the ecological and
socio-economic objectives of the spatial management plan must be clearly stated up front for management actions to reflect
those objectives accurately. To evaluate the effectiveness of a MSP plan, a range of ecological, socio-economic and institutional
indicators need to be developed and monitored. 相似文献
In this paper, we explore a range of concerns that arise in measuring short-term effects of ozone on health. In particular,
we tackle the problem of measuring exposure using alternative daily measures of ozone derived from hourly concentrations.
We adopt the exposure paradigm of Chiogna and Bellini (Environmetrics 13:55–69, 2002) extending it to ozone concentrations,
and we compare its performances with respect to traditional exposure measures by exploiting model selection. To investigate
the stability of model selection, we then apply the idea of bootstrapping the modelling process. 相似文献
Salinity levels vary spatially in coastal areas, depending on proximity to freshwater sources, and may also be slowly decreasing
as a result of anthropogenic climatic changes. The impact of salinity on host–parasite interactions is potentially a key regulator
of transmission processes in intertidal areas, where trematodes are extremely common parasites of invertebrates and vertebrates.
We investigated experimentally the effects of long-term exposure to decreased salinity levels on output of infective stages
(cercariae) and their transmission success in the trematode Philophthalmus sp. This parasite uses the snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus as intermediate host, in which it asexually produces cercariae. After leaving the snail, cercariae encyst externally on hard
substrates to await accidental ingestion by shorebirds, which serve as definitive hosts. We found that at reduced salinities
(25 or 30 psu), the cercarial output of the parasite was lower, the time taken by cercariae to encyst was longer, fewer cercariae
successfully encysted and encysted parasites had lower long-term survival than at normal seawater salinity (35 psu). The strong
effect of salinity on the replication and transmission of this parasite suggests that there may be sources and sinks of transmission
to birds along coastal areas, depending on local salinity conditions. Also, unless it evolves to adapt to changing conditions,
the predicted reduction in salinity as a consequence of climate change may have negative impact on the parasite’s abundance. 相似文献
Loss of zooxanthellae (dinoflagellate Symbiodinium) from corals will sometimes lead to mass mortality of corals. To detect and quantify Symbiodinium released from corals, we developed a zooxanthellae “trap” and a quantitative PCR (qPCR) system with Symbiodinium clades A–F-specific primer sets. The trap was attached to a branch or the surface of several wild stony corals, and the water
samples within the traps, including released Symbiodinium, were subjected to qPCR. All tested corals released clade C Symbiodinium at estimates of ~5,900 cells h−1 cm−2 of coral surface. Although all tested Pocillopora eydouxi harboured both clades C and D, some of these colonies released only clade C or released a lesser amount of clade D than that
in the tissues. Our Symbiodinium quantification system revealed that wild hermatypic corals constantly release Symbiodinium to the environment. Our result suggests that some corals may discharge certain clades of Symbiodinium alternatively. 相似文献
Animal manure is an important source of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in the environment. However, the difference of antibiotic residues and ARG profiles in layer and broiler manure as well as their compost remains unexplored. In this study, we investigated the profiles of twelve antibiotics, seventeen ARGs, and class 1 integrase gene (intI1) in layer and broiler manure, and the corresponding compost at large-scale. Compared with layer manure, broiler manure exhibited approximately six times more residual tetracyclines, especially chlortetracycline. The relative abundances of qnrS and ermA genes in broiler manure were significantly higher than those in layer manure. The concentration of tetracyclines not only had a significantly positive correlation with tetracycline resistance genes (tetA and tetC) but was also positively correlated with quinolone resistance (qepA, qnrB, and qnrS) and macrolide resistance (ermA and ermT). Most ARGs in manure were reduced after composting. However, the relative abundance of sulfonamide resistance gene sul1 increased up to 2.41% after composting, which was significantly higher than that of broiler (0.41%) and layer (0.62%) manure. The associated bacterial community was characterized by high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The relative abundances of thermophilic bacteria had significant positive correlations with the abundance of sul1 in compost. The composting has a significant impact on the ARG-associated gut microbes in poultry manure. Variation partitioning analysis indicated that the change of bacterial community compositions and antibiotics contributed partially to the shift in ARG profiles. The results indicate that at industry-scale production broiler manure had more antibiotics and ARGs than layer manure did, and composting decreased most ARG abundances in poultry manure except for sulfonamide resistance genes.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - With the increasingly serious pollution of plastics, biodegradable plastics (BDPs) have attracted attention as a new material that can replace... 相似文献