地震谣言平息后的思考

对福建省沿海地区 1999年“9· 2 6”地震谣言的来因、传播过程及平息效果进行了分析讨论。给出了地震谣言平息后的几点思考     

生态恢复对退化河岸植物群落的作用 ——以重庆九龙外滩河岸带生态恢复为例

河岸带是陆地生态系统与水生生态系统之间的过渡地带,受人类干扰的威胁较大.长江是流经重庆都市区的主要河流,主城区两江四岸部分河岸硬化,河岸生态功能退化或丧失,生物多样性降低.本文以重庆主城区九龙外滩的河岸带为研究区域,通过调查,采用Ward最小方差法对植物群落类型进行划分,比较了生态恢复区域和自然区域的植物群落特征及优势...     

Experimental study on leak detection and location for gas pipeline based on acoustic method

The leak of gas pipelines can be detected and located by the acoustic method. The technologies of recognizing and extracting wave characteristics are summarized in details in this paper, which is to distinguish leaking and disturbing signals from time and frequency domain. A high-pressure and long distance leak test loop is designed and established by similarity analysis with field transmission pipelines. The acoustic signals collected by sensors are de-noised by wavelet transform to eliminate the background noises, and time-frequency analysis is used to analyze the characteristics of frequency domain. The conclusion can be drawn that most acoustic signals are concentrated on the ranges of 0-100 Hz. The acoustic signal recognition and extraction methods are verified and compared with others and it proves that the disturbing signals can be efficiently removed by the analysis of time and frequency domain, while the new characteristics of the accumulative value difference, mean value difference and peak value difference of signals in adjacent intervals can detect the leak effectively and decrease the false alarm rate significantly. The formula for leak location is modified with consideration of the influences of temperature and pressure. The positioning accuracy can be significantly improved with relative error between 0.01% and 1.37%.     

滑坡的发生与降雨关系的研究

在分析滑坡的地质资料和气象资料的基础上,讨论了降雨诱发滑坡的机制,并深入探讨了滑坡与降雨的关系,包括:滑坡与降雨的分布特点、滑坡与降雨频次之间的关系、滑坡与降雨在时间上的关系等。结果表明:滑坡发生的概率和滑坡数量不仅与降雨量的大小成正相关关系,而且与滑坡发生的当天降雨及前期降雨特征关系密切。     

邻里效应对牧户载畜率决策的影响——北方牧区的经验证据

草畜平衡管理已经在中国实施近20年,但天然草原超载过牧问题尚未得到根本解决,仍然是制约北方草原生态恢复和畜牧业健康发展的关键因素。如何进一步降低牧户载畜率,实现草畜平衡是亟待解决的问题。该研究基于社会经济学视角,理论分析了牧户载畜率决策邻里效应的存在性及其对牧户载畜率的影响效应、作用机制及异质性,并利用2020年在内蒙古、甘肃两省牧区对820户牧户的微观调查数据,采用线性均值模型、中介效应模型和分组回归等方法进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)牧户载畜率决策存在邻里效应,表现出"近墨者黑"特征,且这一效应在控制内生性后依旧存在;牧户会受邻里高载畜率、高超载过牧比例的消极驱动呈现出高载畜率和高超载过牧概率,从而陷入超载过牧的恶性循环。(2)机制分析表明,邻里效应通过提高牧户畜牧业预期收益和降低牧户的心理负担提升牧户载畜率。(3)调节作用分析表明,邻里效应会受到榜样群体的调节,村干部、党员、富人和能人等榜样群体的负向示范强化了载畜率决策的邻里效应,抑制牧户降低载畜率。(4)异质性分析表明,邻里效应在低载畜率、贫困牧户、汉族牧户和受教育程度高的牧户群体中作用更小;当政府外部生态监管严格和村域内部非正式制度健全时,邻里效应对牧户降低载畜率的抑制作用更小。根据以上结论,建议政府在微观草畜平衡管理中,通过打造高效畜牧业样板、树立生态典型、强化舆论压力、改善生态监管和注重政策瞄准等方式,破解载畜率决策邻里效应的负面影响,降低牧户载畜率。